All Creatures Great And Small

 It's not Breaking Bad or Better Call Saul but it'll do.

In the 1970s when James Herriot's books about a vet practice in the Yorkshire Dales were published in the U.S. and became bestsellers I avoided them.  It didn't sound like anything I'd be interested in.  I was finally persuaded to try one of the books.  Within a few pages I was hooked and read them all.

When the BBC series was shown in the States during the 1980s I watched many of the shows.  But when I read that Masterpiece Theater would be showing the brand new BBC remake I had my doubts.  "Leave well enough alone" was my reaction because it was difficult to see how it could live up to the original.

I was mistaken, a verdict shared by Mrs THC.  The new show is wonderful.  An oasis of calm and good cheer amid the chaos of today's world.  And the casting is at least as good as the original.  In particular I couldn't see how anyone could match Robert Hardy's portrayal of Siegfried Farnon but Samuel West manages to accomplish that and Anna Madaley as the housekeeper Mrs Hall is also outstanding. 

The only thing that would make it better are subtitles to help with those impenetrable accents.

Gotta Serve Somebody

You're gonna have to serve somebody

It may be the Devil, it may be the Lord

But you're gonna have to serve somebody

Yes, indeed.  Everyone, whether they think they are or not.

Bob Dylan from the late 1970s. 

The Danger Of Specialization

 From Bryan Ward-Perkins, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization (2006), an intriguing book I read several years ago.  I was reminded of this passage when it was recently quoted in Laudator Temporis Acti, the blog which bestowed on THC its motto: The Value of Useless Knowledge.

Ward-Perkins wrote in response to a trend in classical and medieval history over the past few decades that looks at the decline and fall of the Roman Empire in the West as a mere transition period, not particularly disruptive, rather than as a catastrophic event from which it took centuries to recover which had been the consensus opinion of historians prior to the late 20th century.  Ward-Perkins' view was that the fall of the empire brought about a demonstrable decline in living standards for large parts of the population.  In this excerpt he explains why the dissolution of an interdependent, far-ranging geographically economy had such an impact.  With possible lessons for our time.

 

I have argued that the end of the ancient economy, and the timing of its collapse, were closely linked to the demise of the Roman empire. However, to understand the full and unexpected scale of the decline—turning sophisticated regions into underdeveloped backwaters—we need to appreciate that economic sophistication has a negative side. If the ancient economy had consisted of a series of simple and essentially autonomous local units, with little specialization of labour within them and very little exchange between them, then parts of it would certainly have survived the troubles of post-Roman times—dented perhaps, but in an essentially recognizable form. However, because the ancient economy was in fact a complicated and interlocked system, its very sophistication rendered it fragile and less adaptable to change.

For bulk, high-quality production to flourish in the way that it did in Roman times, a very large number of people had to be involved, in more-or-less specialized capacities. First, there had to be the skilled manufacturers, able to make goods to a high standard, and in a sufficient quantity to ensure a low unit-cost. Secondly, a sophisticated network of transport and commerce had to exist, in order to distribute these goods efficiently and widely. Finally, a large (and therefore generally scattered) market of consumers was essential, with cash to spend and an inclination to spend it. Furthermore, all this complexity depended on the labour of the hundreds of other people who oiled the wheels of manufacture and com- merce by maintaining an infrastructure of coins, roads, boats, wagons, wayside hostelries, and so on.

Economic complexity made mass-produced goods available, but it also made people dependent on specialists or semi-specialists—sometimes working hundreds of miles away—for many of their material needs. This worked very well in stable times, but it rendered consumers extremely vulnerable if for any reason the networks of production and distribution were disrupted, or if they themselves could no longer afford to purchase from a specialist. If specialized production failed, it was not possible to fall back immediately on effective self-help.

Comparison with the contemporary western world is obvious and important. Admittedly, the ancient economy was nowhere near as intricate as that of the developed world in the twenty-first century. We sit in tiny productive pigeon-holes, making our minute and highly specialized contributions to the global economy (in my case, some teaching, and a bit of writing about the end of the Roman world), and we are wholly dependent for our needs on thousands, indeed hundreds of thousands, of other people spread around the globe, each doing their own little thing. We would be quite incapable of meeting our needs locally, even in an emergency. The ancient world had not come as far down the road of specialization and helplessness as we have, but it had come some way.

The enormity of the economic disintegration that occurred at the end of the empire was almost certainly a direct result of this specialization. The post-Roman world reverted to levels of economic simplicity, lower even than those of immediately pre-Roman times, with little movement of goods, poor housing, and only the most basic manufactured items. The sophistication of the Roman period, by spreading high-quality goods widely in society, had destroyed the local skills and local networks that, in pre-Roman times, had provided lower-level economic complexity. It took centuries for people in the former empire to reacquire the skills and the regional networks that would take them back to these pre-Roman levels of sophistication. Ironically, viewed from the perspective of fifth-century Britain and of most of the sixth- and seventh-century Mediterranean, the Roman experience had been highly damaging.

COVID + 10

Our monthly report on covid (click on the coronavirus tag at the bottom to read prior reports).  Unfortunately, the situation is deteriorating globally.  We are in a race to see how quickly we can vaccinate while hoping that none of the new covid variants prove vaccine resistance.

My prior three monthly summaries reported on countries above a benchmark of 400 deaths per million of population but for this report I've increased it to 800 deaths per million because of the rapidly growing toll of the virus and because it provides some context for the United States.  As mentioned previously there is great variation in how countries count covid deaths, some related to understandable differences in how a covid death is defined, others impacted by the comprehensiveness of country reporting systems, and some due to more deliberate government interventions.  I consider any country above 800 as in the same general ballpark as the U.S.  As before, countries with populations below one million are excluded from this summary.

To illustrate how much things have changes since my first monthly report on October 22, on that date there were 19 countries with death rates of 400 per million or above; today there are 49.  On October 22, 2 countries surpassed 800; today it is 31; and on October 2, only one country exceeded 1,000 (or 0.1% of its population) while today 21 are in that category.

Europe

Belgium (1775), Slovenia (1592), Czech Republic (1411), UK (1410), Italy (1402), Bosnia & Herzogovinia (1393), North Macedonia (1329), Bulgaria (1272), Hungary (1224), Spain (1186), Croatia (1166), France (1112), Sweden (1086), Switzerland (1040), Portugal (974), Lithuania (959), Poland (923), Romania (920), Moldova (827), Austria (811).

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: Netherlands, Slovakia, Germany, Ireland

North America 

USA (1277), Panama (1144), Mexico (1127)

South America

Peru (1182), Argentina (1025), Brazil (1009), Colombia (988), Chile (926), Bolivia (835), Ecuador (818)

Africa

None

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: South Africa

Asia

Armenia (1021)

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: Georgia, Iran

The above is based on officially reported figures.  However, we've recently had examples of potential major discrepancies.  For instance, Russia's mortality rate is 469 based on official data.  However, earlier this month two Russian government officials publicly stated the death toll is much higher.  The two officials used different definitions for covid deaths, in one case stating the current death toll was an underestimate by 60,000, while the other stated the proper death toll should be 130,000 higher.  The lower estimate would result in a mortality rate around 900 while the higher would give a rate of about 1350.

Another recent study of excess mortality in Indonesia finds it running 71% higher than average since March but the official covid death count is only 27,453 with a rate of 100.  If a significant amount of the excess mortality is due to covid the rate would be much higher.

Something else I've noted in the data that does not involve misreporting but may be significant.  Japan had been relatively unscathed by covid despite doing limited testing and very little on closing of businesses.  However, since late November cases and deaths have been steadily rising.  In both instances the numbers are still relatively small by USA or Europe standards but very high compared to earlier in 2020.  We are also hearing that China is quarantining large populations again.  Something may be up.

A country I continue to find puzzling is Turkey which ranks 9th in the world in confirmed cases with 2.4 million but with a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of only 1.0%, the lowest of any country among those in the   top twenty.  I would like to understand how Turkey defines and reports covid deaths and whether its covid treatment protocols differ in any respect from other countries at the top of the case list.

_________________________________________________

I've complained before about the politicization of covid, not just between Left and Right in the USA but even between countries, with people across the political spectrum grabbing onto whatever data or theory they can use that best conforms with their political outlook.  One of the most striking to me has been the lionization of Governor Cuomo of New York and the unceasing attacks on Governor DeSantis of Florida.  We are now ten months into this and New York's death rate is still almost double that of Florida and while New York remains mostly shut down, Florida has imposed many fewer restrictions.

Despite having the second highest mortality rate of any state, Governor Cuomo has received an Emmy Award for his press conferences, did a victory tour of late night talk shows, where he was received with adoration, to promote his book on how he beat covid in New York, and most recently received the Edward M Kennedy Award for Inspired Leadership for his covid response.  I find the whole thing ghoulish.

What follows is an extended excerpt from a Patreon newsletter I subscribe to which discusses the contrast. The author is a conservative Never Trumper.

The media’s reporting on Covid-19 was awful all of last year, as was regularly noted in this newsletter. One of the most actively dishonest narratives was how the press covered the pandemic in New York compared to Florida.

There are two distinctive metrics for analyzing the quality of a state’s Covid-19 response: 1) The extent to which a state prevents virus spread/harm; 2) The ability of a state to balance actions associated with #1 with the inevitable economic and health ramifications. The national press made it clear early on that they placed insufficient value on #2 and often ignored the data related to #1 when it did not fit certain pre-developed narratives.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has received constant praise, despite having one of the worst records in the country in both categories. New York ranks second in the country in deaths per capita and no other state will catch them any time soon, as they’re currently in the midst of a growing outbreak of cases and deaths. Meanwhile, the state remained under strict and excessive lockdowns throughout 2020. In-person instruction in schools was shut down for most of the year, countless businesses have been destroyed, and restaurants and bars have been consistently restricted. Cuomo has repeatedly lost in court for infringing on religious rights with restrictions, and a record number of people have fled the state (many to Florida). Now Cuomo is undermining efforts to get as many people the vaccine as possible by shelving the vaccine preparation in the state and focusing on punishingpeople for administering the vaccine out of order. All of that earned Cuomo an Emmy and a celebration book tour.

Meanwhile, the national press has spent every single month since March promoting the idea that Florida, and specifically DeSantis, were mishandling the virus and headed for disaster. Just look at some stories from CNN and NBC News, which were hardly unique among news outlets:

March CNN: The Florida governor just got called out over his handling of coronavirus

April CNN: DeSantis risked the lives of Floridians

May CNN: States continue to ease coronavirus restrictions ahead of expert recommendations

June CNN: Pressure mounts on DeSantis as coronavirus cases spike in Florida

July CNN: DeSantis' earlier bravado fuels Florida's pandemic crisis

August NBC News: Florida teachers battle Gov. DeSantis over return to classrooms

September NBC News: Fauci says it's 'very concerning' that Florida is re-opening bars and restaurants at full capacity

October CNN: Florida will be 'like a house on fire' in weeks with loose coronavirus restrictions, infectious disease expert says

November CNN: Since Gov. Ron DeSantis reopened Florida in late September, the number of reported Covid-19 cases per week in the state has tripled.

December CNN: “Putting 'politics in front of lives': DeSantis faces criticism over Florida's Covid-19 response”

After all that time, Florida is 19th in deaths per capita and didn’t rank in the top 25 states in cases or deaths per capita over the last week. Meanwhile, the state has been mostly open since late September. DeSantis was excoriated for it, but it turned out that beaches do not present a big risk for virus spread and it allowed socialization that was missing in many states. DeSantis also took a lot of heat for pushing for schools to reopen, but once again was proven correct in his decision. Schools have not been a substantial source of virus spread, and keeping them closed did a lot of damage to children in other states.

DeSantis also did something unique in specifically targeting the state’s older population to protect those in nursing homes while Cuomo and several other governors chose to send Covid-19 patients back to those facilities. In addition, Florida has often focused actions at the county level, thereby better balancing the need to keep businesses open with the need to protect against the virus. As a result, while Florida’s record on virus spread (#1) is average (although significantly better than that of NY), their record on balancing it with preventing the harms that result from restrictions (#2) is among the best in the country.

DeSantis has also recently expanded vaccine administration to 7 days a week for seniors and healthcare workers, set up drive-thru vaccination sites to expand access, and launched a pilot program aimed at providing vaccinations specifically to underserved communities. News outlets have spent the last week complaining about seniors waiting in line for vaccinations in Florida while completely ignoring the reality that those same seniors wouldn’t even be eligiblefor vaccinations right now under Cuomo’s rules. The press has kept their false narrative going despite the data since March, and has shown no signs of reconsidering. Part of that is clearly because of how popular DeSantis was pre-Covid and the threat he posed as a future presidential contender. DeSantis has made some mistakes, but it’s rather clear that the press owes him an apology and the narrative they promoted about his handling of Covid-19 compared to other governors is completely backwards.

___________________________________________________

I've thought since early last year that a distinct possibility for the origin of Covid-19 was from sloppy handling practices at a bio lab in Wuhan, China that allowed the virus to escape into the public (there is a history of such mishaps at labs in China since the early 2000s).  The State Department recently issued the statement below:

Excerpts from State Department Statement on Origins of Covid-19, issued on January 15, 2021 

You can find the entire statement here.

"The U.S. government does not know exactly where, when, or how the COVID-19 virus—known as SARS-CoV-2—was transmitted initially to humans. We have not determined whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, China.

The virus could have emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals, spreading in a pattern consistent with a natural epidemic. Alternatively, a laboratory accident could resemble a natural outbreak if the initial exposure included only a few individuals and was compounded by asymptomatic infection. Scientists in China have researched animal-derived coronaviruses under conditions that increased the risk for accidental and potentially unwitting exposure.

1. Illnesses inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV):

• The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses. This raises questions about the credibility of WIV senior researcher Shi Zhengli’s public claim that there was “zero infection” among the WIV’s staff and students of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-related viruses.
• Accidental infections in labs have caused several previous virus outbreaks in China and elsewhere, including a 2004 SARS outbreak in Beijing that infected nine people, killing one.

2. Research at the WIV:

• Starting in at least 2016 – and with no indication of a stop prior to the COVID-19 outbreak – WIV researchers conducted experiments involving RaTG13, the bat coronavirus identified by the WIV in January 2020 as its closest sample to SARS-CoV-2 (96.2% similar). The WIV became a focal point for international coronavirus research after the 2003 SARS outbreak and has since studied animals including mice, bats, and pangolins.
• The WIV has a published record of conducting “gain-of-function” research to engineer chimeric viruses. But the WIV has not been transparent or consistent about its record of studying viruses most similar to the COVID-19 virus, including “RaTG13,” which it sampled from a cave in Yunnan Province in 2013 after several miners died of SARS-like illness.

Despite the WIV presenting itself as a civilian institution, the United States has determined that the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China’s military. The WIV has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017."

Aaron

 RIP, Henry Aaron.  A great ballplayer, a great man.  The past twelve months have seen the passing of so many of the ballplayers I grew up admiring.

(Painting by Graig Kreindler)

Vin Scully's call of Hank's 715th home run, passing Babe Ruth.  As usual, it is a perfect call by Vin.  Notice how he gives the moment a chance to breathe by saying nothing for 20 seconds and then strikes the right note about the significance of the event.  And let's not forget that 92 year old Vin has, within the past month, lost both his wife to Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS), and long time friend Tommy Lasorda.

The last nine months have seen the passing of ten Hall of Famers, Al Kaline, Joe Morgan, Whitey Ford, Lou Brock, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Aaron and Tommy Lasorda, along with Dick Allen.  All, with the exception of Lasorda, played in the 60s, and 9 of the 11 were National Leaguers reflecting the competitive inbalance between the leagues in that decade.

Deep River Blues

 I had the privilege of seeing Doc Watson play in Paris in 1978.  Doc, who lost his sight before turning two due to an infection, called Deep Gap, way up in the North Carolina mountains, his home from his birth in 1923 until his death in 2012.  A guitar master with a fine voice (and his deep and warm speaking voice just invited you in) here he is performing Deep River Blues in 1962.

 

While putting this together I came across another gem - a performance of Down In The Valley To Pray from the early 2000s.  Many originally heard the song in O Brother Where Art Thou? when it was called Down In The River To Pray and performed by Alison Kraus.  In this video, Doc is joined by Alison and Ricky Skaggs, while Earl Scruggs sits next to Doc.  We learn that Alison learned the song from Doc who, in turn, learned it from his grandmother who he remembers singing it as she churned butter on the porch.

And finally, here are rehearsals sessions from 2001 with Dolly Parton, preparing for Merlefest, the annual tribute to Doc's guitar playing son, with whom he toured for many year, who died in 1985 in an accident on the family farm.  The song is The Last Thing on My Mind, written by Tom Paxton, a 60s folk musician.  Listen in particular to the first three minutes.

A Nice Ending

Yesterday the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Drew Brees captained New Orleans Saints to advance in the NFL playoffs.  It was likely the last game for the 42-year old Brees who is expected to soon announce his retirement.

After the game, Brady and Brees (along with his wife and children) returned to the field to talk and then Tom threw a TD pass to one of the Brees children!  All in all, a nice quiet moment with two of the greatest quarterbacks to every play the game.  Next week the 43-year old Brady faces 37 year-old Aaron Rodgers who may have just had his best regular season.

As Tom Brady and Drew Brees hug and say goodbye after a long talk on the field, Brady throws a touchdown pass to Brees’ son. One walks off to play in the NFC championship, the other stays to play with his kids. pic.twitter.com/wdWDro9YD4

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 18, 2021

I've Been Loving You Too Long

 . . .  to stop now

The great Otis Redding.

Experiments & Tampering

 From the always thoughtful Arnold Kling:

W. Edwards Deming distinguished experiments from tampering. With an experiment, you change a process and explicitly compare the results to a baseline. With tampering, you change the process without rigorously examining the results.

For example, in education, most curriculum changes involve tampering. Schools rarely test to see whether a curriculum works.

I once sat next to a high official in the Department of Education, and he was horrified when I suggested experiments in education. “Would you want your child to be part of an experiment?” he asked, incredulously. “The schools do it all the time,” I responded. “They just don’t bother checking to see whether their experiments work.”

It is very hard to make a moral case against experiments that is not also an even stronger case against tampering. But we have a much higher tolerance for tampering than for experiments . . .  Saying that you are conducting experiment implies that you are uncertain. Tampering implies that you know what you are doing. Sadly, people have a higher tolerance for tampering.

You can read the whole thing here.

Phone In A Pool

Seems what's been good for the music

Hasn't always been so good for the life

Ben Folds accompanied by yMusic, a chamber ensemble based in New York which has also accompanied Paul Simon.

Netherlands Limes

Within the bounds of the modern Netherlands, the frontier of the Roman Empire lay along the line river, though for some decades it may have also embraced some lands to the north.  Over three centuries, the Roman army constructed earthworks, roads, fences, and fortifications in the area.  These fortified boundary zones were known as "limes" and existed on many of the empire's frontiers.

The Netherlands has now constructed walkways and bikeways linking the remnants of the limes.  This video shows the limes.  I'd sure like to travel along that path.

Very Large Array

In October we drove from Maine to Arizona.  I always like taking different routes so instead of following I-40 into Arizona from New Mexico as we usually do, we took a left at Albuquerque and headed south on I-25.  Exiting at Socorro our plan we to take US 60 into Arizona and stay in Show Low that evening.

US 60 in New Mexico takes you through very sparsely inhabited areas, a mixture of plains with expansive views and mountains.  About 40 miles west of Socorro we came over a pass and beginning our descend to a large flat plain noticed some very odd-looking structures scattered in the distance across the landscape.  Coming closer we realized they were radiotelescopes and the highway went right through the center of them.  We stopped and took the photos you see here.

A quick check told us we were in the midst of the Very Large Array (VLA) of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory.  As we drove from Socorro I'd noticed occasional small roadside signs announcing "VLA 30 Miles", "VLA 20 Miles," but had no idea what they meant.  Now I did.

At an altitude of 6,790 feet, the precise name of the facility is the Karl G Jansky Very Large Array, which is part of the NRAO (itself headquartered in Virginia).  Built in the 1970s, though modified extensively since, the VLA consists of 27 radio telescopes in a Y array over a large area.  Designed to detect radio emissions from quasars, pulsars, supernova remnants and black holes as well as search for powerful signals from any advanced civilizations, the VLA evokes its own aura of mystery standing in its remote location.

It was also used as one of the settings for the 1997 film Contact, starring Jodie Foster, about our first encounter with an advanced civilization.  According to Wikipedia:

"Shooting at the VLA was, of course, spectacular but also one of the most difficult aspects of our filming", producer Steve Starkey said. "It is a working facility, so in order for us to accomplish shots for the movie, we had to negotiate with the National Science Foundation for 'dish control' in order to move the dishes in the direction we needed to effect the most dramatic shot for the story."

The VLA also appeared in Terminator Salvation (2009) as an evil Skynet facility. 

The facility is usually open for tourists and has regularly scheduled guided tours but is closed now due to covid.  We plan on returning when it reopens.

Education




The problem is not people being uneducated.
The problem is that people are educated just enough to believe what they have been taught, and not educated enough to question anything from what they have been taught. 🧠 pic.twitter.com/cxbtlR3cTn

— Richard Feynman (@ProfFeynman) January 7, 2021

From the teachings of physicist Richard Feynman (1918-88).  He's this guy.

And I Don't Like The Guy Coming Through The Door

Having said my piece on Trump two days ago, I was going to refrain from writing about politics for a couple of weeks, but yesterday's idiotic, misleading and inaccurate utterances from Joe Biden are too much to ignore.

But first, since I'm back on politics, a few more thoughts on our soon to be ex-President:

Trump bears responsibility for inciting his most fervent supporters to believe that a merely ceremonial event, the January 6 counting by the Vice-President of electoral votes, offered a real prospect of changing the election results.  It is particularly bad when those around the President knew he really had lost.  For that matter, his entire behavior since the election has been a disgrace.  If it was just Trump this behavior impacted that would be bad enough, but everything that he triggered by his actions has played into the hands of Progressives who seek to impose a new regime of thought control on our country.

Alyssa Farah, White House Communications Director, stepped down in December.  She remains proud of what the administration accomplished but was disturbed by what happened in the White House after the election, giving this interview to Politico which was published today.

I made the decision to step down in December because I saw where this was heading, and I wasn’t comfortable being a part of sharing this message to the public that the election results might go a different way. I didn’t see that to be where the facts lay. 

The results of the election almost perfectly aligned with our internal polling. So this notion that everyone’s kind of surprised and it turned out so different than we were expecting—I mean, from what I was read into, we always knew Pennsylvania was going to be a huge uphill battle, as was Arizona. North Carolina would be a squeaker. We’d win Florida.

Georgia was the one that we just did not adequately have a read on, on how close that would be. But none of this should have come as a surprise to anyone who was following the data.

And early on, I truly believe the president knew—when I was still in the White House in late November, he knew that he had lost. And it was something that was almost like tacitly acknowledged, like we’re going to make this painful, but we know what happened. And then, something turned. And I don't know if it was the wrong advisors getting to him with bad information or what.

While Trump has now made a statement denouncing the rioters, it's more like a child's apology after getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar.  The truth is if, instead of a few hundred crazies, 25,000 had stormed the Capitol and forced Congress to change the vote, Trump would have been happy with the result.

This morning, Dominion announced it is suing Sidney Powell for defamation and promising to file additional lawsuits against those promoting the ridiculous conspiracy theories about the company.  This is a confident move, as a large company suing an individual defendant leaves the plaintiff more vulnerable to embarrassment in discovery unless it really has a strong case.  And, unlike Trump, whose legal team was led by Rudy Giuliani, an incompetent litigator at this point in his career, Dominion hired a top-notch firm specializing in defamation cases that has successfully represented clients from across the political spectrum including representing Sarah Palin in her meritorious lawsuit against the New York Times.  I wish Dominion the best.

And now on to the incoming-President.

This is what set me off:

Biden: "No one can tell me that if it had been a group of Black Lives Matter protesting yesterday, they wouldn't have been treated very, very differently than the mob of thugs that stormed the Capitol. We all know that's true, and it is unacceptable. Totally unacceptable." pic.twitter.com/TfWa25VzEt

— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 7, 2021

This is as inaccurate, misleading and inflammatory as anything said by Donald Trump.  The use of this trope demonstrates the new administration is not interested in racial reconciliation but rather encouraging racial divisiveness to achieve its goals.  The truth is BLM/Antifa and associated thugs supported by Progressives have been allowed to run wild in American cities for months.  Progressive mayors have ordered police to stand down, while these thugs ransacked and burned the properties of law abiding citizens, mostly minorities, destroying thousands of livelihoods.  Murder rates, again mostly of minorities, have soared, but Progressives simply don't care about any of this as long as they can get the vote out.  And those who tried to object are threatened with the loss of their jobs and careers and shut down by social media.  It is, in fact, this disparate treatment that outraged so many Americans regardless of what they thought of Donald Trump.  Let's be honest.  If BLM rioters forced themselves into the Capitol and occupied it in the name of achieving racial justice, the media coverage would be completely different.  And if a black person died in that action, we would have nationwide riots and an orgy of destruction with the media explaining it away.  The fact a white person died trying to force their way in on the 6th is a matter of indifference to Progressives and I say that as someone who would have supported Capitol police firing on anyone who attempted to enter as part of that mob.

Meanwhile, last summer the media went out of its way to pretend it wasn't even happening, claiming the protests were "mostly peaceful" and 93% non-violent (by that standard, I don't know why anyone would be concerned about Covid since the best estimates are more than 99% of those infected will survive).  If you are a Progressive you can remain in your media cocoon ignorant of reality.  Here's a report from an honest progressive about what's happened in our cities. 

And it's worse than that.  During the campaign Joe Biden denied that Antifa was a real thing and Biden and Harris staffers contributed to bail funds to allow these thugs to go free while Progressive mayors and judges dropped charges against these creatures. (ADDED: Just rechecked and what do you know, it was even worse than I remembered - Kamala Harris actually used her twitter feed to encourage followers to contribute to a Minnesota bail fund to spring members of the Democratic Party's paramilitary wing from jail). 

Meanwhile, when Antifa spent 50 nights trying to break into the Federal building in Portland (and did the same in other cities though not as persistently) with arson and other violent attacks, outlets like the New York Times studiously avoided reporting, except to blame the Trump administration when it reacted to protect the buildings.

And what are BLM and Antifa?  BLM is a straightforward revolutionary movement dedicated to overturning American society and abolishing the nuclear family, while Antifa is their white wannabe wing.  They bring the same analysis to society as do white nationalists - that everything should be analyzed through the lense of race, a lense which explains everything.  They only differ in who should be one top in the end.  Why would an American President endorse them?  Just because your granddaughter, who is evidently incapable of thinking for herself, writes you a note (and what another indictment of college education that is!)?

Do we have race issues still in America?  Yes.  But these organizations and their Progressive enablers are only interested in those issues as a pretext to overturn society and move us into a post-Constitutional era where only their rights are protected and they are vested with ultimate decision making powers.

Meanwhile the incoming President and Progressives are piling false narrative upon false narrative, yelling about "systemic racism" as an excuse to ignore the Civil Rights Act of 1964 which banned discrimination on race.  Here's the truth about "systemic racism".  In the 19th and early 20th century, black Americans sought to pass as white because it bestowed advantages they were otherwise denied.  When in the early 1820s Thomas Jefferson freed two of the young adult children of Sallie Hemings (of whom Thomas was the likely father), those children (who were 7/8 white), went north of the Ohio River, passed as white and passed from history.  But look around you today.  Today we see white people trying to pass as black, Hispanic and Indian because that is where the advantage lays in 21st century America.  There are racist people, of all races, in 21st century America, but "systemic racism" is a made-up thing, created in an academic laboratory, that somehow escaped and is now infecting large parts of our society.

[ADDED: The incoming administration seems determined to re-racialize America, which would be a tragedy for all of us.  We spent decades trying to get beyond a racialized America and now the Democrats want to take us back.  This is a reactionary path.  We would be going backward as a society, not forward.  I find it all terribly dispiriting.  That this lense will be used for everything by the new administration is evident in this statement tonight by the President-elect.

 

This is more pretend oppression theater as we have targeted small business programs for all of these groups for decades.  What we have never done during these decades is place a group at the back of the line based upon race and sex.  I never thought this day would come in America.  I did not think in 21st century America we would see an ideology triumph that denies our common humanity while at the same time obliterating the idea that individuals might think in ways not solely determined by race, ethnicity or gender.

 The radical ideology attacking our country advances under the banner of social justice.  But in truth, it would demolish both justice and society.  It would transform justice into an instrument of division and vengeance, and it would turn our free and inclusive society into a place of repression, domination, and exclusion.** END OF ADD]

Violence of the Left is either endorsed as righteous or ignored if inconvenient.  A Progressive attempts mass murder of Republican congressmen.  Flush it down the memory hole.  A Progressive attacks a U.S. Senator, ending up with him hospitalized and losing part of a lung.  Never happened.  A mob descends on the Capitol chasing U.S. Senators through the halls in protest of the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh.  Righteous!*

Remember prior to the election when store owners in D.C., Manhattan, Boston and other cities were boarding up their shops?  They weren't worried about Trump protestors.  What they were worried about was Progressive mayors letting loose once again their paramilitary wing to wreak havoc if Trump won.  Progressives were openly talking of the violence they would be unleash if Trump got a second term.

And finally let's not forget there was a real coup attempt and it succeeded, at least partially.  That was the effort to first derail the Trump campaign and then impede and destroy his administration after the election via what we call the Russia Collusion Hoax, an elaborate and influential mirage constructed by the Democrats and their allies in the federal bureaucracy and media.  That remains a much more dangerous threat to our country and its institutions than a few hundred crazy people running through the Capitol.  The latter is the more shocking, but the former more profound and serious, particularly if it goes not only unpunished, but unrecognized, by much of the American public.

The bottom line is you should be shocked by yesterday's events and repulsed by Trump's behavior.  Everyone involved deserves condemnation and Trump deserves removal.  But be careful to step back and try to observe objectively about what is happening.  Don't make up your mind based on what you read in the Times and Washington Post or Breitbart or Gateway Pundit or what you see on CNN, MSNBC, FOX or Newsmax.  Investigate and decide for yourself.  Based on President-elect Biden's comments the Progressive line will be to continue with the fake narratives and get you to ignore the fundamental undermining of America they are undertaking.  This is their strategy:

For more on my outlook on the future of both parties for better, or mostly worse, read Are The Parties Over?  If you're younger you may want to read the Your Future series.

----------------------------------------------------------------

* The Kavanaugh nomination was when many moderate Republicans realized Progressives were not just after Trump, they were going to personally destroy anyone in their way.  Brett Kavanaugh was about as milquetoast and moderate a Republican Supreme Court justice nominee as possible.  Yet Progressives and their media ally pressed a narrative that he was a gang rapist and treated seriously the accusations of Ford about an event that allegedly happened 35 years ago when Kavanaugh was in high school.  This despite that, to this day, there is no evidence the event happened nor that Ford and Kavanaugh even met.

Contrast the accusations of sexual assault against Joe Biden by a former staffer which allegedly occurred when he was a U.S. Senator.  I have no idea if the accusations are true, but in contrast to Ford's accusations, we know the staffer actually worked for Biden and complained to at least one other person at the time of the alleged incident.  Yet after ignoring her, the press just decided to torch her reputation (we call that "The Hillary Method") and then ignore her again.  

** This last paragraph is a direct quote from Donald Trump's Mount Rushmore speech on July 3, 2020.  I endorse every word of it.  The only Trump speech with which I agreed 100%.  For more on my take read this.

Sawdan

For twenty four years in the 9th century an Arab Emirate existed in southern Italy.  In 847 the seaport of Bari, on the Adriatic Coast, was seized by Saracens and held until 871.  For the final 14 years of its existence it was ruled by Emir Sawdan Al-Mawri, a figure of whom we know little, but the little we know indicates he was a remarkable figure of his time.  While other cities and towns in southern Italy came under Arab control in the 9th and 10th centuries, including Taranto and Otranto in Apulia and Reggio in Calabria, Bari was the only emirate recognized by the Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad.

A word on terminology.  The raiders and conquerors of Muslim faith who dominated the Mediterranean in those centuries go under many names in Christian chronicles and documents, including Arabs, Saracens, and Moors.  We will use Arab for simplicity sake, though most of those involved with the events described were not from the Arabian peninsula.  In fact, many were Berbers, native to North Africa and recent converts to Islam, descendants of those who invaded Spain in the early 8th century, or natives of those lands who had converted. 

In 698 the Arabs captured Carthage, the last outpost of the Byzantine empire in North Africa.  By early in the next century raids were being conducted on Sicily and Italy but it was not until in the early 9th century that the nature of the threat changed.  In 812 Arab raiders plundered the island of Ischia (near Naples), while in 827 a full scale invasion of Sicily began.  Within 20 years much of the island was controlled by Arabs, who made Palermo their capital; in 877 Syracuse fell, and the last Byzantine outpost surrendered in 902.

Italy was vulnerable. Relatively poor compared to the Arab states, its main asset were people who could be captured and sold as slaves.  The peninsula was also politically fragmented with the area around Rome ruled by the Papacy while further south there were multiple polities.  Gaeta was a small city-state to the north of the Duchy of Naples, nominally subordinate to the Byzantine Empire but, in reality, autonomous.  Northwest of Naples was Capua, under Lombard rule (a Germanic tribe which entered Italy in 568),  eventually combined with Benevento.  There were two remaining Lombard principalities, the Duchies of Benevento and Salerno, usually antagonistic to each other, while Amalfi, tucked away on the coast which now bears its name, had carved out an independent (and prosperous) seafaring existence.  Since the time of Charlemagne, late in the prior century, all of these entities owed allegiance to the Carolingian dynasty which ruled what is today France, the Low Countries, Germany and North Italy, but it was an allegiance mostly honored in the breach.

In 846 an Arab fleet landed in Ostia, raiders marched a dozen miles to Rome, sacking those parts of the city outside the ancient Aurelian walls, and looting relics from the original St Peter's Church.  Marching down the coast, they wintered near Naples before leaving in spring.  Three years later the Arabs returned in another attempted raid on Rome, but were defeated in a naval battle.  That did not end the depredations.  For the next century, hamlets, villages and small towns were at the mercy of these raiders.  Even religious sanctuaries were not spared.  The famous abbey at Monte Cassino was sacked and the surviving monks did not feel safe to return for a half century.  All along the coast "Saracen" towers were built to provide early warning to communities.

                                                   (Saracen Tower on Amalfi Coast near Praiano; photo by me)
(From Wikipedia; includes some inaccuracies, such as missing Duchy of Naples, between Amalfi and Capua, and showing Byzantine territory not conquered until the 10th century but close enough)

While South Italy was under constant threat by the Arabs, the relationship between Christians and Muslims was not always antagonistic.  Neapolitan merchants sold slaves to the Arabs and imported Arab mercenaries to protect the Duchy from the neighboring Christian Lombard (Benevento, Capua and Salerno) principalities.  The relationship of the Duchy of Naples with the Arab states, and the numerous Arab residents of the city led the Carolingian Emperor Louis II, while campaigning in the area, to complain that Naples was a "second Palermo [the Arab capital of Sicily] or Africa".  For many years, an Arab band was encamped on the slopes of Mount Vesuvius at the invitation of Naples, being tolerated until they became indiscriminate in selecting targets for their raids. 

When civil wars broke out between the Lombard principalities each hired large bands of Arab mercenaries who were allowed to plunder the area during the "down time" between fighting.  In 842 the city of Capua was sacked and burned by Benevento's Muslim mercenaries eventually prompting its inhabitants to build a new city, in a less vulnerable location a few kilometers away (which became the modern city of Capua).  For the remainder of the century Arab bands used the ancient Roman amphitheater in the old city as a base from which to stage raids.  At one point, the ancient Greek temples of Paestum, south of Salerno, were also used as a base by raiders.  When Gaeta, a coastal city-state between Naples and Rome, felt threatened by its neighbors it imported an Arab band which carved out a territory from which it launched raids for three decades.  The Duchy of Amalfi grew rich on its trade with North Africa and Egypt and when the Pope and the Byzantines attempted to form a Christian alliance to drive the Muslims from the region it failed because Salerno, Naples and Amalfi entered into a peace treaty with the Arabs.  Moreover the limited documents available from that period show that individual Muslims lived in some of these principalities and even owned land.

It was during this period that Arab raiders attempted to permanently seize footholds on the peninsula. Reggio, at the toe of Italy, was seized in the early 10th century and held for many decades.  A band of Arab raiders seized the small town of Cetera, halfway between Amalfi and Salerno, raiding across the countryside for the next twenty years.  And in Apulia (the heel of Italy), other bands seized Otranto and Taranto (the latter held for more than 30 years).  But Bari was the biggest prize.

(The map below shows the situation in the mid-12th century but shows the locations of most of the cities mentioned, including Bari, Taranto, Benevento, Salerno and Naples.)

Bari was the most prosperous seaport of the region.  In later years it would become even wealthier serving as a slave depot, primarily for Venice, used to store slaves from Slavic lands (primarily the areas that became Poland and Prussia) before transport and sale to Arab principalities.

In 847 the city was seized by a band of Arab raiders under the leadership of Kalfun, a shadowy figure who may have been part of a mercenary garrison installed by the Prince of Benevento to control Bari.  Kalfun was probably of Berber origin, possibly an escaped servant of the Aglahbid dynasty which ruled North Africa and Sicily.  Kalfun's successor, Mufarrag, who became emir in 852, sought and obtained recognition as an emirate from the Abbasid Caliph and expanded its territory, launching raids across the southern part of the peninsula.  Sawdan was next in line, taking power in 857.

According to Barbara Kruetz, author of Before The Normans: Southern Italy in the Ninth & Tenth Centuries, we only have fragmentary information about the emirate and Sawdan.  

At some point in the mid-860s, the Frankish monk Bernard, on his way to the Holy Land with two companions, came to Bari . . . 

They obtained from Sawdan safe conduct letters addressed to the princes of Baghdad and Jerusalem.

The narrative of Bernard's journey suggests no shock that Bari, 'formerly belonging to the Beneventans' was now in Muslim hands; Bernard and his companions received courteous treatment there and seem simply to have accepted the fact that Bari was no longer part of the Christian world.

Kruetz also writes of the Chronicle of Ahimaaz, an eleventh century Hebrew narrative of the history of a south Italian Jewish family:

Many of the anecdotes in this chronicle seem questionable, but it is noteworthy that Sawdan  . . . is memorialized in it as a wise and eminently civilized ruler . . . Doubtless much of this story was romantic fiction . . . Yet it is interesting that the author, who did not mince words concerning the havoc wreaked by Arab raids (and on some key Jewish communities), nonetheless depicted Muslim Bari as a stable and well-governed city.

She also points to evidence that "Bari under Muslim rule came to be accepted as simply another piece of the south Italian jigsaw puzzle, merely one more entity to be dealt with", citing Christian rebels fleeing to Sawdan for protection and the emir's envoys coming to Salerno where they were lodged in the bishop's palace. 

That is not to say that Sawdan was a peaceful man.  Far from it.  Plunder was essential to his survival and prestige.  His bands pillaged all over south Italy, particularly Benevento and Capua, burning the fortified town of Ascoli, seizing the castle of Venafro near the abbeys of Monte Cassino and San Vincenzo, from both of which massive gold ransoms were extracted.  He also defeated Lombard attempts to recapture Bari.

By the mid-860s it seemed like south Italy might be headed in the same direction as Sicily.

Enter Louis II, great-grandson of Charlemagne and, since 844, King of Italy and Holy Roman Emperor.   In response to calls for help against the Arabs and a desire to assert his real, as opposed to nominal supremacy, Louis II ventured south in 866 with a goal of retaking Bari. What he encountered was a tangled web of competing principalities and shifting alliances which delayed him, leading initially to several unsuccessful campaigns before Bari finally fell in February 871 Bari fell, resulting in Sawdan's capture and transport to Louis' headquarters in Benevento, where the most remarkable part of the emir's story takes place.

Mere months later, in August 871, Louis found himself and his family suddenly surrounded and put under guard in close confinement.  After a month of negotiations, Louis and the family were released but only after he had taken an oath never to return to Benevento; a humiliating end to what had seemed a triumphal campaign for the emperor.

What happened?

Although Louis came south to rid the area of the threat from Bari, he had showed no signs of leaving after its fall.  For the families ruling the local principalities that was a bad thing because they had no desire to submit themselves to Louis. And, according to all the surviving chronicles, much of the blame for the seizure of Louis was due to Sawdan.

Sawdan must have had a substantial reservoir of charm to draw upon.  He quickly became popular at Benevento, entertaining a constant stream of well-born visitors and dining frequently with Louis.  According to Kreutz:

"He became a lighting rod, attracting Lombard complaints about the Franks and Frankish complaints about the Lombards.  Then . . . he put to use what he had learned from each side . . . [Sawdan] purportedly inflamed the Beneventans by warning that Louis planned to send many of them north, in chains; . . . The evidence suggest that Sawdan had access to information from both sides, and that he passed it on in the manner most likely to be helpful to his own cause."

Louis left Benevento, never to return, dying four years later.  Sawdan, kept in comfortable captivity in Benevento, was released upon Louis' death and then, unfortunately, disappears from history so we do not know his fate.

Don't Let The Door Hit You On The Way Out

 My message to President Trump.  What a disgrace.

ADDED: I wrote this before learning of the storming of the Capitol.  Trump should resign.  Now.

FURTHER ADD:  If he won't resign, time to invoke the 25th Amendment.

I Was So Much Older Then, I'm Younger Than That Now

My Back Pages was the last song recorded by Bob Dylan for his album Another Side of Bob Dylan released in August 1964.  Signaling the end of his "protest" song period, it is an acknowledgement that issues and life are more complicated than he had previously portrayed.  His next album, Bringing It All Back Home in March 1965, included no protest songs and began his move into a new electric sound to the outrage of many of his earliest folk music fans.

Dylan never performed the song in concert until 1988.  The version below is from a 1992 show at Madison Square Garden celebrating the 30th anniversary of the release of his first album (59 years have now passed!).  You will notice many familiar faces; Neil Young, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Eric Clapton and Roger McGuinn of The Byrds who had a hit with the song in 1967.  The back up band assembled for the concert is also outstanding, including 3/4 of the original Booker T & The MGs - Booker T Jones (keyboards), Donald "Duck" Dunn on bass and Steve Cropper on guitar.  Cropper also composed Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay with Otis Redding and In The Midnight Hour with Wilson Pickett.  On drums is Jim Keltner who played with John Lennon, George Harrison, Ringo Starr, Joe Cocker, Dylan, The Traveling Wilburys and a host of others.  Musical director for the show was guitarist G.E. Smith (in the green suit), leader of the Saturday Night Live house band for many years.

 

 

Crimson flames tied through my ears
Rolling high and mighty traps
Pounced with fire on flaming roads
Using ideas as my maps
"We'll meet on edges, soon, " said I
Proud 'neath heated brow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

Half-wracked prejudice leaped forth
"Rip down all hate, " I screamed
Lies that life is black and white
Spoke from my skull, I dreamed
Romantic facts of musketeers
Foundationed deep, somehow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

 

Girl's faces formed the forward path
From phony jealousy
To memorizing politics of ancient history
Flung down by corpse evangelists
Unthought of, though, somehow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

 

A self-ordained professor's tongue
Too serious to fool
Spouted out that liberty is just equality in school
"Equality, " I spoke the word
As if a wedding vow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

 

In a soldier's stance, I aimed my hand
At the mongrel dogs who teach
Fearing not I'd become my enemy
In the instant that I preach
My existence led by confusion boats
Mutiny from stern to bow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

 

Yes, my guard stood hard when abstract threats
Too noble to neglect
Deceived me into thinking I had something to protect
Good and bad, I define these terms
Quite clear, no doubt, somehow
Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now

Here Comes The Flood

 "Drink up, dreamers, you're running dry"

Peter Gabriel performing Here Comes The Flood, from his first solo album.  Far superior to the album because it is stripped of the bombastic overproduction.  From a 1979 Christmas TV show by the incredibly irritating Kate Bush (admittedly, so can Gabriel at times).  This link takes you to it.

Not Gonna Do It