Priorities

Coronavirus prompts me to write something I've meant to do a post on for a while.  National priorities to avert catastrophes. By priorities I mean something I am willing to see the country spend considerable resources on in order to avert mass destruction and devastation, and for which we will not have adequate reaction time once it occurs.

Pandemics
Viral - Early detection, containment, and vaccines are a priority.  There will be other potential pandemics arising and some will have the potential to be much worse.
Bacterial - The need is to develop new antibiotics as so many of our existing ones are becoming less effective.

Asteroids
The probability of a devastating strike on Earth is small in any 100-year window but it is also an inevitable occurrence at some point as we know from the historical record.  Development of detection and destruction systems is essential - Bruce Willis and his roughneck crew may not be around the next time the need arises.

While I support the United States undertaking these efforts they would be easier if there is some degree of international cooperation.  The coronavirus crisis may make this more difficult.

The virus is going to bring to a head the discussions around globalization, trade and, specifically, China's role.  Since Xi's ascension to leadership in 2014, China has become more assertive in international affairs, becoming territorially aggressive, beginning to interfere in other countries, becoming bolder in stealing intellectual property and seeking to dominate world trade rather than being a major participant and beneficiary.  We've seen the Trump administration push back on the economic side of the equation and the European Union has belatedly, and more cautiously, joined in.

This latest crisis highlights the lack of trust we have in the Chinese government in terms of its handling, and the possible origins of the virus, and our dependency on China as a critical part of the supply chain for the Western World.  I think this will accelerate efforts to decouple Western economies for China and, at a minimum, make sure we have domestic capacity to produce critical items.  If that happens China is not going to react well which will increase tensions further and may make even more difficult international cooperation on the big issues listed above.

You might notice that climate change is not on my list.  That is because its consequences, whatever they may be and whatever else you may be hearing, are not catastrophic.  It is not an extinction event, changes will be gradual over decades, and there will be time to adjust.   Even the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which issues the "official" report every few years estimates that under the most dire circumstances global GDP will be about 8% less than it would have otherwise been in 2100.  Though that is trillions in shortfall the models predict a much wealthier world even with climate change.

Moreover, most of what you read (including the latest US Climate Assessment) uses IPPC modeling scenario 8.5 which predicts global CO2 emissions far above current trends.  The scenario was a "worst case" when developed 15 years ago and its predictions are even further divorced from reality today.  It is designed to provoke scare scenarios.  Other IPPC scenarios more in line with current emission trends show temperature increases that are more moderate and impacts less severe.  Despite this most academic studies are based upon scenario 8.5.  

For a more detailed discussion on the background and implications of the use and misuse of this scenario you can read these pieces by Roger Pielke Jr here and here and here.