Monday, February 27, 2023

Another Take On Route 66

Earlier this week I attended a lecture at the Scottsdale Library on the Underground and Aboveground Railroads by Dr Tamika Sanders.  It was very well done but since I already knew quite a bit about the Underground Railroad I was particularly interested in the Aboveground version, which turned out to be about the difficulties faced by black travelers right up until the Civil Rights Act of 1964 finally forbid discrimination in private common accommodations like restaurants and hotels.

Before then, black travelers in many areas faced severe restrictions finding hotels, restaurants, gas stations, and other services that would allow them.  Dr Sanders focused us on the Negro Motorist Green Book, published from 1936 until the passage of the Civil Rights Act.  The book, published by Victor Hugo Green, provided black travelers with a listing in each state, by city, of facilities they could get access to while on the road.

Coverage by the Green Book was not limited to the former slave states which had instituted formal Jim Crow laws as all across the country, to greater or lesser degrees, blacks could not gain the same access to facilities as whites.  Dr Sanders pointed out that over the years, the number of accommodations open to blacks grew, as she showed us actual pages from various editions, with a focus on the southwest.  The numbers and types of facilities available in Arizona in the 1930s was very limited and must have posed huge obstacles.  Black travelers had to carry enough food because they could not be certain of getting service in restaurants along the way and even had to carry gasoline.

As part of our presentation she showed the video below about Route 66 in those days and the difficulties it posed for black travelers.  The road ran across northern Arizona on its way from Chicago to Los Angeles.

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One note to add to the video.  At around 1:27 it shows a photo in which a person holds a Grand Imperial Wizard for Goldwater sign, a reference to the KKK and obviously from the 1964 presidential campaign.  The Arizona senator voted against the Civil Rights Act, specifically because he believed the federal government lacked constitutional authority to regulate private accommodations.  I think he made the wrong choice, but later that year, after passage of the Act, the Republican Party platform contained these sections:

full implementation and faithful execution of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and all other civil rights statutes, to assure equal rights and opportunities guaranteed by the Constitution to every citizen;

—improvements of civil rights statutes adequate to changing needs of our times;

—such additional administrative or legislative actions as may be required to end the denial, for whatever unlawful reason, of the right to vote;

 This Administration has failed to apply Republican-initiated retraining programs where most needed particularly where they could afford new economic opportunities to Negro citizens.

Though he objected on constitutional grounds to the Act, Barry Goldwater was directly responsible for integrating the Arizona Air National Guard in which he served; helping to finance the NAACP lawsuit seeking to desegregate Phoenix schools; and integrating the U.S. Senate cafeteria by taking his black political aide to lunch.

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Change Is Now

From The Byrds, one of my favorite bands in the 60s.  I still like the band and their music, but wanted to write about the lyrics in this song; how they relate to their times and today.

Here are the full lyrics.  Wait a minute!  Don't forget to enjoy the music - the drone bass, Roger McGuinn's guitar solo which sounds like it was beamed in from outer space, the (unusual for the time) country music interlude, and the harmonies.

Change is now, change is nowThings that seemed to be solid are notAll is now, all is nowThe time that we have to live
 
Gather all that we canKeep in harmony with love's sweet plan
 
Truth is real, truth is realThat which is not real does not existIn and out roundaboutDance to the day when fear it is gone
 
Gather all that we canKeep in harmony with love's sweet plan
 
Change is now, change is nowThings that seemed to be solid are notIn and out roundaboutDance to the day when fear it is goneFear it is gone

What does it mean?

Let's set the context.  The Notorious Byrd Brothers album was released in January 1968 and recorded in the second half of 1967, just after the birth of hippiedom during The Summer of Love, and its lyrics reflect that sensibility.

Change is now, change is nowThings that seemed to be solid are notAll is now, all is nowThe time that we have to live
There was a sense we had entered a new era.  Not me, them.  I was about to turn 17 and though my hair grew longer in the late 60s and I loved the music, I never considered myself a hippie.  The old paradigm was gone ("things that seemed to be solid are not").  Everything was up for grabs ("all is now").    There is no past we need to know about, nothing to learn from experience, it's in our hands to create a New World. 
Gather all that we canKeep in harmony with love's sweet plan
Everybody is welcome.  Get on the Love Train.  If we simply love each other, all will be well.  No more details needed.  Did I mention there's nothing to learn from the past?
Truth is real, truth is realThat which is not real does not existIn and out roundaboutDance to the day when fear it is gone
That first line is very intriguing.  Notice they don't say "science is real" or "I believe in science" (that would also have been harder to rhyme) that ridiculous slogan of the past few years.  It is "Truth" that is real.  There is a reality so maybe everything is not up for grabs.  And the truth they are referring to is not necessarily a materialistic or scientific one, in fact since they're hippies it probably isn't.  It's likely a spiritual truth, a truth that man cannot just create, though they would hesitate to specifically call Christian or Jewish.  Of course, as Tom Holland points out in Dominion, whether they acknowledge it or not, the Christian worldview which permeates our civilization, is the springboard for that truth. 
 
"That which is not real does not exist" tells us that reality and belief may be separate, reminding me of Philip K Dick's notion that "reality is that which still exists when you stop believing in it".   The phrase is also contra to the creed of today's New Racists who believe that the manipulation of language can, in and of itself, create a new reality.  It's why belief is so essential for the NRs, and any deviation is such a threat it requires expulsion and branding as a heretic.  The hippies, in contrast, were content with folks "doing their own thing"; there was no cult from which one could be expelled.
 
Dancing was very important to the hippies.  It was an individual rite, or sometimes a group rite, but not something for couples to do.  It was liberating and the act of dancing could bring about change.  And the most important change needed was drive fear away, so that love could fill the world.  It was a simple view and seemingly easy to accomplish, a perspective that Elvis Costello, the noted foreign policy realist, rejected in 1977 when he told us "fear is here to stay, love is here for a visit".

The phrase "fear it is gone" is repeated three times during the song.  One of the reasons I didn't care for the hippie ethos at the time was the simple mindedness required, the deliberate avoidance of deep thinking, a mindset that allowed naive people to be easily manipulated by charismatic figures with evil intent.

Or maybe I'm reading too much into the lyrics and it was just all about the drugs.
 
In any event, the placid dream of peace and love ended quickly.  The milk of human kindness had curdled by August of 1968 when Jefferson Airplane released its fourth album, Crown of Creation, with the title song's mixture of narcissism, self-righteousness, and intolerance:

In loyalty to their kind

They cannot tolerate our minds

In loyalty to our kind

We cannot tolerate their obstruction!

A sentiment that would fit well in 2023 America.

Things deteriorated quickly in the late 1960s and early 70s.  A year after Crown of Creation, the Airplane were preaching revolution, and the Black Panthers and Weathermen were rolling.  Peace and love were over.  The difference between that period and now was that the revolutionaries were mostly rejected by the institutions, though they were able to grab a beach head in academia which they would exploit over the next few decades.  Today, people with those more revolutionary, intolerant, and violent beliefs are the ones running the institutions.  We've gone from "Don't Trust The Man" to "Trust Authority and You're Fired If You Don't". It's why today is a much more dangerous time.  For my reflections and personal experience with that earlier period read The Company You Keep.

Too Much Between Us

There's you, you're sleeping over there
Whilst me I'm sitting here
With so much sea between us
I can't make it much more clear

Far too few and far to follow
For shame I'll heed the cry
Be with me when I need a drink
Be with me when I die

Had forgotten about this song until stumbling across it recently.  From Procol Harum's 1969 album, A Salty Dog.  Has similarities to the sound of some of the quieter early 70s Peter Gabriel-era Genesis songs.  Also reminds me, melodically and arrangement wise, of Standing In The Doorway from Bob Dylan's 1997's album, Time Out Of Mind.

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Tuleninova

I have no idea who Olga Tuleninova is, or whether she or he exists, but enjoy the twitter account which features 19th and 20th century art, often by artists of whom I know little and lesser known paintings by more famous artists.  Some recent ones:


Bring Back The Birthdays!

While I did a post about President Polk on Presidents Day, I would much prefer that the holiday be abolished and we go back to celebrating the birthdays of two, and two only, presidents - Washington (February 22) and Lincoln (February 12).  I don't like the idea of honoring the office of the presidency - it strikes me as an anti-republican and anti-democracy sentiment.  These are people we, the people, hire to do a job.

I think it proper to honor the finest of our presidents.  Washington and Lincoln are the two indispensable presidents in American history, and having them singled out, and remembered separately, as a continued American tradition is appropriate.

So, happy 191st birthday, George!

Monday, February 20, 2023

James K Polk

On President's Day, a tribute to perhaps the most consequential one-term president in our history, James K Polk.  A compulsive workhorse, quarrelsome, and not a guy I'd invite for dinner, but who grabbed the American southwest, got the British to give up their claims to the American northwest, lowered tariffs, and established an independent treasury which handled federal finances into the early 20th century.

Became president in March 1845, leaving office in March 1849, and dying three months later, the shortest ex-presidency in our history.

The song is from They Might Be Giants.  The founders are graduates of Lincoln-Sudbury High School, down the road from where we lived in the mid-70s.

 

In 1844, the Democrats were split

The three nominees for the presidential candidateWere Martin Van Buren, a former president and an abolitionistJames Buchanan, a moderateLouis Cass, a general and expansionistFrom Nashville came a dark horse riding upHe was James K. Polk, Napoleon of the Stump
 
Austere, severe, he held few people dearHis oratory filled his foes with fearThe factions soon agreedHe's just the man we needTo bring about victoryFulfill our manifest destinyAnd annex the land the Mexicans commandAnd when the votes were cast the winner wasMister James K. Polk, Napoleon of the Stump
 
In four short years he met his every goalHe seized the whole southwest from MexicoMade sure the tariffs fellAnd made the English sell the Oregon territoryHe built an independent treasuryHaving done all this he sought no second termBut precious few have mourned the passing ofMister James K. Polk, our eleventh presidentYoung Hickory, Napoleon of the Stump

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Coronet

For his birthday, the THC Sister presented THC with the February 1951 edition of Coronet, a mass circulation magazine (more than 2,500,000 printed that month!), published from 1936 through 1971, by the company that also published Esquire Magazine (which was actually a good magazine at the time).  It cost 25 cents.

Here's the cover and the contents page:


 


 The cover art depicts two young boys wrestling in imitation of what they are watching on TV.  Pro wrestling was big then.  In the late 50s, when our grandmother would come to sit us she would invariably turn on the TV to watch wrestling.  I remember seeing Bruno Sammartino and Gorgeous George.

The first of the two cover stories, "How Wild Are Small-Town Girls?", starts by informing us that:

"Judging by the headlines in many metropolitan newspapers, life in a 'typical American small town' is very immoral indeed", but then goes on to reassure the reader that "Actually, the widespread notion that delinquency flourishes more in small communities than in metropolitan areas is completely false".

After enlightening us with many examples of small town and metro area female delinquency, the article concludes that until the right steps are taken, "there will continue to be a certain amount of delinquency and immorality in America's small towns.  And so, too, will their inhabitants continue to be shamed by newspaper stories that exaggerate local conditions to lurid and shameful proportions."

Harpo Marx's affectionate profile of his brother Groucho provides a light contrast to the other cover story.  Harpo notes:

Groucho doesn't regard words the way the rest of us do.  He looks at a word in the usual fashion.  Then he looks at it upside down, backwards, from the middle out to the ends, and from the ends back to the middle.  Next he drops it in a mental Mixmaster, stirs it throughouly, and studies it again from every angle.  Groucho doesn't look for double meanings.  He looks for quadruple meanings.  And usually finds them.

The rest of the issue contains many interesting stories and glimpses into a largely vanished America.

And just as we see a TV on the cover, the magazine features three full page ads for the new entertainment center entering American homes.  You can take your pick from the three models featured below, a 16 inch "million proof television" from RCA Victor, the 17 inch "most beautiful ever" model from Admiral, or go big with the 19 inch "super life-size" set from GE which cost $499.95 or about $5,800 in 2023 dollars.





Sunday, February 12, 2023

You Were Right, And I Was Wrong

On the 214th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln's birthday, we present the President's gracious letter to General Ulysses Grant on the successful conclusion of his campaign against Vicksburg.  Grant's daring campaign after taking Port Gibson and Grand Gulf was unprecedented, a Union army deliberately cutting itself off from its supply base.  Despite the doubts expressed by Lincoln at the time, Grant succeeded.  The President's letter is one of many examples of his extraordinary character.  Eight months later, Lincoln named Grant to take command of all Union forces.

Executive Mansion,
Washington, July 13, 1863.
Major General Grant
        My dear General
        I do not remember that you and I ever met personally. I write this now as a grateful acknowledgment for the almost inestimable service you have done the country. I wish to say a word further. When you first reached the vicinity of Vicksburg, I thought you should do, what you finally did—march the troops across the neck, run the batteries with the transports, and thus go below; and I never had any faith, except a general hope that you knew better than I, that the Yazoo Pass expedition, and the like, could succeed. When you got below, and took Port-Gibson, Grand Gulf, and vicinity, I thought you should go down the river and join Gen. Banks; and when you turned Northward East of the Big Black, I feared it was a mistake. I now wish to make the personal acknowledgment that you were right, and I was wrong.
        Yours very truly
                  A. Lincoln


Thursday, February 9, 2023

I Just Don't Know What To Do With Myself

With Burt Bacharach's passing at 94 the tributes are pouring in along with those lengthy lists of memorable songs.  I've written twice about Burt in Is Christopher Walken The Burt Bacharach Of Acting? and on his wonderful 1990s collaboration with Elvis Costello, Painted From Memory.

Here are four favorites (lyrics on the first three by brilliant Hal David), starting with Colin Hay's version of I Just Don't Know What To Do With Myself.

Next up are two from Dionne Warwick, Anyone Who Had A Heart, with its odd-timing and rhythms (a Bacharach trademark), and Alfie, a simply sublime combination of musical composition, lyrics, and a perfect vocal, creating a very odd tune, and the title song for the movie which made Michael Caine, playing a rotten guy, a star.

 

 

Last is Burt and Elvis with the title song from their album Painted From Memory.

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

You Say You Want A Revolution

 I've written a couple of posts about China's Cultural Revolution (1966-76), see "We Thought Mao Was Doing A Wonderful Thing", and Destroy The Four Olds, while, more recently, a number of people have pointed out similarities between those years in China and the recent upheavals in the United States by those seeking to impose the doctrines of the New Racism and Transgender Mania (1), driven by their belief in a conspiracy theory that whites and Jews have conspired to manipulate the structures and the very language of society to attain and maintain their supremacy; see, for instance, Bill Maher's remarks on his show a couple of weeks ago or in the tale of a Georgetown Law School professor regarding the purges at her school, as told in Fighting Back.

But while there are similarities between the U.S. today and the days of the Cultural Revolution, the more I think about it, I believe there are also some distinct differences.  These are my initial thoughts on the subject.

To understand what those differences might be, we need to look back on the origins of the Cultural Revolution in China.

In the late 1930s, Mao Tse Tung emerged as the leading figure in the Chinese Communist Party and he maintained that role until the aftermath of the disastrous Great Leap Forward of 1958-62, which was both an economic failure and led to the deaths of tens of million.  In the wake of that failure, his position was weakened.  Though not sidelined, other party chieftains became more powerful.

In the early and mid-60s, Mao became disturbed as he believed the revolutionary momentum of the 40s and 50s was ebbing as a more "comfortable" class of cadres and bureaucrats emerged within the party.  In Mao's view complete destruction of "the old" was necessary and only those committed to a permanent revolutionary society could bring about a new order.  In achieving that goal, and regaining his full authority, Mao had an ace up his sleeve, because he remained a cult figure to the masses.  The Communist Party's revolutionary educational course consisted of 22 sets of writings, of which Mao was the author of 18.  To the Chinese people, he remained the face of the party, though his power base within it was diminished.

When unleashed in 1966, the Cultural Revolution was intended to undo both key institutions and those who controlled them (and, along the way, restore Mao to full authority).  

And that is the difference with what we see in the United States since 2020 with the emergence of these anti-democratic theories gestated in the belly of academia, until they burst forth in the wake of George Floyd, just like the creature bursting out of John Hurt's chest in Alien.

The George Floyd riots, which left in the short run, thirty dead and two billion in property damage (mostly in businesses owned by people of color) and, longer term, resulted in upsurges in violent crime and homicides, mostly impacting minority communities, occurred predominantly in cities governed for decades by progressives; cities that turned out to be hotbeds of racism, filled with failing school systems.  

Yet the response has been to strengthen the institutions in our society, whether governmental, academic, corporate, or NGO, whose failed policies led to this and, in fact, to double down.  We see the academic and teachers union trends of debasing and disabling effective education actually accelerating, telling us that, for instance, the solution to a subset of black children not performing well, is not to figure out how best to help them improve, but rather should be cured by lowering the standards for everyone else.  We see major cities and the homeless industrial complex doubling down on the same policies that have only increased homelessness and the descent into disorder.  We see academia increasing the purges in the name of diversity while, in reality, creating an intellectual atmosphere of stultifying conformity.

There is a Cultural Revolution in the United States but one driven by the institutions and those in control, one that had slowly increased its power in the first two decades of this century and saw with Donald Trump and George Floyd the chance to aggressively consolidate its power and to finally crush any opposition.  Just as in the 1920s and 1930s the communists labeled as fascists anyone opposed to them, today's ideologues needed to create an enemy and label that enemy as racist, fascist, and a threat to democracy, which is, in reality, what the proponents of the American Cultural Revolution stand for; they've revived racial essentialism, embrace the essence of fascism as defined by its original proponents - "everything inside the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state", and actively seek to suppress opposition within the institutions they control and by attempting to federalize elections under central control.

I witnessed the hysteria induced by Trump's election, with ravings about the dark night of fascism falling on America with brownshirts in the streets, all to mobilize "the resistance".  Strangely, in the months between the election and inauguration what we saw instead were a spate of fake hate crimes and violent threats against Trump supporters, followed in the first few months of his administration by numerous instances of speech suppression on campuses and elsewhere against non-progressives (even if they didn't support Trump) but no suppression by the new administration, all capped by the shooting of Republicans at a baseball practice by a Bernie Bros who was addicted to watching MSNBC.  That it was nonsense, didn't matter, the narrative was established and reinforced every day by the institutions.

Of course, Trump himself, being a repellent dolt, played right into it, reinforcing the narrative against him.  Whether remarking on Russia and Putin, or making bizarre authoritarian leaning remarks and wisecracks, he thought he was "owning the libs" but instead it was an self-own.  And the biggest monumental self-own was his behavior after the November 2020 election with stop the steal and his ratcheting up the rhetoric, all leading to January 6, and providing the perfect image for those who are the real oppressors to wave around in front of the public.

But here's the other strange thing.  Trump had bizarre behavior, outside the norm, with his remarks and tweets often rebounding against him.  But on substance, domestic and foreign policy, he was not outside those norms.  In fact, on domestic policy I would argue that he was overall a weak and ineffective president, presenting no risk or threat to democracy.  You might agree or disagree with his tax bill, which increased taxes on the wealthy by limiting the SALT deduction, but there was nothing abnormal or anti-democratic about it.  As I've written before, Trump's behavior and rhetoric undercut the substance.  Nonetheless, the drumbeat persisted and even became more heated during his administration.

And then we come to George Floyd.  After several attempts to build false narratives around people like Trayvon Martin, Freddie Gray, and Michael Brown (Omar Mateen was also false but that was a false gay, not black, narrative), with Floyd there was the perfect vehicle, that horrible 9 minute video portraying police action for which there was no excuse.  It wasn't just the short term impact when progressive mayors pulled back the police and unleashed their militias, but the institutions jumping on those events with a grand purge of anyone not fully on board with the conspiracy theory of the New Racism.

The American Cultural Revolution is not about disabling bureaucrats and institutions; they'd already gained control.  It is about purging the remaining opposition, an opposition that, while opposing the New Racists, lacks coordinated discipline and power.  It is a fragmented opposition.  It is not just on the right, but includes many centrists, and indeed a number of people who describe themselves as liberals, progressives, and even socialists, but who understand that the ideology behind the New Racism spells the end of democracy if it should succeed.  All of us in opposition are branded as the enemy; as racists, fascists, and enemies of democracy.  If this is "Revolution", it is revolution from above.

Another difference with China's Cultural Revolution is that the American version lacks a political icon.  In China, Mao towered over everything and everyone, the actions of the Red Guards and others were done with his blessing, and his followers waved Mao's Little Red Book.  There is no such political icon in America; Joe Biden and other Democrats just don't fit the bill (interestingly, for some of his supporters, Trump is such an icon)  There are cultural icons here, but primarily based on identity - if you are black and have the right ideas you fit the bill, but nothing similar to Mao.  That we are going through these times without such a political icon is an indication of the strength of the American movement within existing institutions.  This is happening without direction from a Mao-like figure.

One final difference is that the destruction of the Four Olds in China was about completely obliterating the past.  Though some of what we are seeing in America is applying strange ideas in new ways, the ideas behind all of it are a throwback, a weird mixture of pre-Enlightenment views on tolerance crossed with the bizarro-world resurrection of the pre- Civil War beliefs of John C Calhoun (who ever thought we'd see the King Cotton thesis revived!).

One aspect that Bill Maher didn't quite get and others have also failed, is that what we are seeing is not just a phenonomen of the far Left (indeed there a folks very much of the Left who strongly opposed all of this), but that it now the governing philosophy of our institutions and of the political party controlling the White House and Senate.  It's not just a matter of curbing the excesses of a few.

If you examine the details behind the New Racism and Transgender Mania one realizes it is full of contradictions and incoherence and will eventually run aground in the conflicts between its groups of adherents as they argue over who is most oppressed and who gets to play the oppressor in their new world.  The question is when will this occur and how much damage will they inflict on the rest of us in the process?

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(1) Regarding transgender issues, I am supportive of adults making informed decisions regarding transitions; historically a tiny percentage of the population.  What I am referring to with the term "Mania" are those, who believe that men and women are different, that gender is not a choice, that mothers should not be referred to as "birthing persons", that object to the use of convoluted language to avoid the truth, that one should be able to ask why men should not be allowed in girls restrooms or women's prison, and whether it is good policy to allow minor children to undergo chemical transitions, and are denounced as transphobic and run the risk of losing their jobs or educational opportunities due to attacks from the maniacs.  For more on the worst of this, the transitioning of children read this piece.

I used to think the New Racism and Transgender Mania were independent issues, but after delving into the literature, I realize their proponents believe they are linked.  Specifically, they believe that the gender binary was invented by Europeans in the 17th and 18th century in order to maintain white supremacy.  The same is believed regarding the nuclear family, supposedly also invented in the same time period in support of white supremacy.  In their view, destroying traditional gender roles and the nuclear family are essential to reforming society and overturning white supremacy.  It is why the platform of BLM included the abolition of the nuclear family.

Sunday, February 5, 2023

Effigy

From Creedence Clearwater Revival's 1969 album, Willie & The Poor Boys, one of their lesser known tunes, featuring apocalyptic lyrics and two scorching guitar solos from John Fogerty.

Last nightI saw the fire spreadin' toThe country side.In the mornin'Few were left to watchThe ashes die.

Who is burnin'?Who is burnin'?

          Effigy

 

My Endorsement

Sometimes you just gotta make a stand, because sometimes there's a man . . . I won't say a hero, 'cause, what's a hero?  But sometimes there's a man.  I'm talkin' about the Dude here.  Sometimes, there's a man. well, he's the man for his time and place.  He fits right in there.  But sometimes there's a man, sometimes, there's a man.  Aw. I lost my train of thought there.

And, if you don't agree, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

 

 

Saturday, February 4, 2023

Two Men

 It's worth getting a twitter account even if only to follow Super 70s Sports, the best thing on the site.  


Ted Williams served in both WW2 and Korea, missing nearly five seasons at the peak of his career.  For Korea he trained as a jet fighter pilot, flew combat missions as John Glenn's wingman, and survived a crash landing after his jet was crippled by enemy fire.

Yogi Berra served as a machine gunner on a Navy gunboat supporting the D-Day landings at Utah Beach on June 6, 1944.  Two months later he was in the Mediterranean supporting the invasion of southern France where, while engaging German shore forces, he was wounded in the hand, receiving the Purple Heart.

I had the privilege of meeting Yogi and his family at an event at his museum in Montclair, NJ in the fall of 2009.  Lovely man, lovely family.

Things Change

Via Tanner Greer's outstanding blog, The Scholar's Stage, we learned that Japan's 2022 National Security Strategy, published on December 16, ends with this startling statement:

At this time of an inflection point in history, Japan is finding itself in the midst of the most severe and complex security environment since the end of WWII. In no way can we be optimistic about what the future of the international community will hold.

And the document starts with this:

The international community is facing changes defining an era. We are reminded once again that globalization and interdependence alone cannot serve as a guarantor for peace and development across the globe. The free, open, and stable international order, which expanded worldwide in the post-Cold War era, is now at stake with serious challenges amidst historical changes in power balances and intensifying geopolitical competition…
Japan, once the epitome of a country basing its policy on globalization and a global community within which it would be integrated, has concluded that vision is gone, a point emphasized in this passage:

Japan will work to achieve a virtuous cycle of security and economic growth, in which economic growth promotes the improvement of the security environment surrounding Japan. Concurrently, Japan will ensure the self-reliance of its economic structure, as well as advantages over other countries and ultimately the indispensability of its technologies.
Japan clearly blames this change on China and Russia:

largely due to the fact that nations, not sharing universal values, or political and economic systems based on such values in common, are expanding their influences, thereby manifesting risks around the globe. Specifically, some states, which do not exclude the policy of increasing their own national interests at the expense of others, are expanding their influence through both military and non-military means, attempting to unilaterally change the status quo, and accelerating actions to challenge the international order. Such moves have sharpened competition and confrontation among states in wide-ranging areas, including military, diplomatic, economic, and technological fields, and have shaken the foundation of the international order.
Greer writes of his own reaction:

I find myself strangely affected by this document. There was once a dream that globalization might save the world. As the fortunes and culture of the great human hive grew ever more intertwined, we dreamed that we could be one with all the globe. We would no longer just be citizens of soil or state, but citizens of the species! With hearts knit in unity, love, and enlightened self interest, old hatreds would melt away. Many millennia of chaos and strife might end. America would form the living kernel of this new commercial order. Her enterprise would provide the connecting tissue that wrapped together the prosperity and liberty of the entire human race. 

And he concludes with these words:

I believe the Japanese have judged correctly; I support the Biden administration’s attempt to blunt China’s technological edge. But it is difficult to see these things play out in real life and feel any sense of victory. We are sliding into a darker world order. The Chinese got there first; we should have followed long ago. There is little sense in keeping to old forms that do not match present realities. But the old forms will not go unmourned. It is always sad to watch a dream die.

Though there are still some in American academia, government, and business, and many in Western Europe, who still refuse to face the present realities and want to keep the old forms, the world really has changed and the dream is fading.

In December, Morris Chang, founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which is making a $12 billion investment in the Phoenix area, proclaimed in a speech here that globalization and free trade were "almost dead".

Though both Russia and China actions have led to this, Russia is, by itself a nuisance, but nothing more, but for China's support.  It is China's disruption that is at the heart of this.  

Those more knowledgeable than me are still debating whether this was China's plan all along or is really attributable to the changes under Xi Jingping, who took control in 2012.  What I do know is that during my time traveling frequently to China from 2000 through 2011, I was cautiously optimistic, though as the years passed less so.  In retrospect, the Clinton/Bush policy of integrating China into the world economy and agreeing to China's entry into the World Trade Organization without additional conditions backfired.  

The unraveling of globalization will be painful and risky for everyone.  This is much different than our confrontation with the Soviet Union, a military superpower but economic basket case.  Unlike our relationship with China, the United States and Soviet economies were not integrated; in fact the Soviets deliberately isolated themselves among their communist satellites and allies.(1) 

It was also a different world militarily.  During the Cold War, there were two superpowers.  For two decades after the end of the Cold War, America was the sole hyperpower.  Those days are over, both militarily and economically.  The U.S. is still the strongest individual nation but can no longer dominate the world in either aspect.  We must be more selective in choosing our priorities and where to spend our monies.  We need to end the illusion that we should, and can, influence everything in the world.

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(1) I don't think ending globalizations means the U.S. will produce everything here, but I think you will see rival trading blocs formed and decisions made to encourage local production in certain key areas. 

Friday, February 3, 2023

It's February!

 Time for Kevin Killeen of KMOX in St Louis to weigh in once again:

"Something great happened here, but it's over with, and that's the way February is".