Thursday, June 19, 2025

An Urgent Problem

The entire New York Times Editorial Board published an opinion piece on anti-semitism in the June 14 issue of the paper.

It is welcome to see the Times address this issue, but how the Board chose to do so illustrates the shortcomings of its blinkered worldview and why, at the end of day, it amounts to a bunch of meaningless words because of the Board's refusal to even mention the underlying causes in today's America, including the role of the Times in fomenting that hate among its heavily progressive readership.

I also see that the structure of the editorial which, as always with the Times, starts with an attack on Trump, is done in the hope that their left-leaning readers will pay attention to what follows. 

For these reasons, the Board uses tortured language and phrasing throughout.

My interests are not in defending either party.  I've voted in every presidential election since 1972, but in 2024 left the presidential line blank because both Trump and today's Democratic Party were unacceptable to me, albeit for very different reasons.

Below is the editorial in full, with my comments entered in brackets and boldface. 

The list of horrific antisemitic attacks in the United States keeps growing. Two weeks ago in Boulder, Colo., a man set fire to peaceful marchers who were calling for the release of Israeli hostages. Less than two weeks earlier, a young couple was shot to death while leaving an event at the Jewish Museum in Washington. The previous month, an intruder scaled a fence outside the official residence of Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and threw Molotov cocktails while Mr. Shapiro, his wife and children were asleep inside. In October, a 39-year-old Chicago resident was shot from behind while walking to synagogue.

[Important to note that all of these incidents were by supporters of Hamas, who are also linked to the Left, a fact admitted by the Times later in this article.] 

The United States is experiencing its worst surge of anti-Jewish hate in many decades. Antisemitic hate crimes more than doubled between 2021 and 2023, according to the F.B.I., and appear to have risen further in 2024. On a per capita basis, Jews face far greater risks of being victims of hate crimes than members of any other demographic groups.

American Jews, who make up about 2 percent of the country’s population, are well aware of the threat. Some feel compelled to hide signs of their faith. Synagogues have hired more armed guards who greet worshipers, and Jewish schools have hired guards to protect children and teachers. A small industry of digital specialists combs social media looking for signs of potential attacks, and these specialists have helped law enforcement prevent several.

[The Jewish population of the U.S. was at its peak in 1940 when Jews constituted about 3.7% of the nation's population. Relative to America's overall population, the Jewish population has been shrinking which has societal and political consequences.  Even with this decrease in relative population, demographic changes since WW2 have resulted in 80-85% of the world's Jews living in just two countries, the U.S. and Israel, with about equal populations.  The next three largest populations, about 400,000 each in the UK, Canada, and France, constitute about 7-8% of the world's Jews. The first two countries are governed by political parties hostile to Jews.  In France, the governing party is not hostile but although Jews constitute less than 1% of the population they are the objects of more than 60% of hate crimes.  And all three countries have large and rapidly growing Muslim populations, which the governing parties are desperate to placate.  It looks like the Jewish population will become even more concentrated in Israel and the U.S.  Overall, since the Holocaust, the global Jewish population has, at best, been restored to its pre-1940 numbers even as the world's population has more than tripled.]

The response from much of the rest of American society has been insufficient. The upswing in antisemitism deserves outright condemnation. It has already killed people and maimed others, including an 88-year-old Holocaust survivor who was burned in Boulder. And history offers a grim lesson: An increase in antisemitism often accompanies a rise in other hateful violence and human rights violations. Societies that make excuses for attacks against one minority group rarely stop there.

Antisemitism is sometimes described as “the oldest hate.” It dates at least to ancient Greece and Egypt, where Jews were mocked for their differences and scapegoated for societal problems. A common trope is that Jews secretly control society and are to blame for its ills. The prejudice has continued through the Inquisition, Russian pogroms and the worst mass murder in history, the Holocaust, which led to the coining of a new term: genocide.

In modern times, many American Jews believed that the United States had left behind this tradition, with some reason. But as Conor Cruise O’Brien, an Irish writer and politician, noted, “Antisemitism is a light sleeper.” It tends to re-emerge when societies become polarized and people go looking for somebody to blame. This pattern helps explain why antisemitism began rising, first in Europe and then in the United States, in the 2010s, around the same time that politics coarsened. The anger pulsing through society has manifested itself through animosity toward Jews.

The political right, including President Trump, deserves substantial blame. Yes, he has led a government crackdown against antisemitism on college campuses, and that crackdown has caused colleges to become more serious about addressing the problem. But Mr. Trump has also used the subject as a pretext for his broader campaign against the independence of higher education. The combination risks turning antisemitism into yet another partisan issue, encouraging opponents to dismiss it as one of his invented realities.

Even worse, Mr. Trump had made it normal to hate, by using bigoted language about a range of groups, including immigrants, women and trans Americans. Since he entered the political scene, attacks on Asian, Black, Latino and L.G.B.T. Americans have spiked, according to the F.B.I. While he claims to deplore antisemitism, his actions tell a different story. He has dined with a Holocaust denier, and his Republican Party has nominated antisemites for elected offices, including governor of North Carolina. Mr. Trump himself praised as “very fine people” the attendees of a 2017 march in Charlottesville, Va., that featured the chant “Jews will not replace us.” On Jan. 6, 2021, at least one rioter attacking the Capitol screamed that he was looking for “the big Jew,” referring to Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, Mr. Schumer has said.

["Even worse, Mr Trump had made it normal to hate".  Doesn't the Editorial Board read its own newspaper?  According to the 1619 Project, which the Times published to much fanfare, America from its inception has been a nation founded on the principle of whites hating others.  According to the Times, we've always been a horrible country.  And, if you don't accept the Times characterization of this country, let's look at another indicator of hate and race relations.  Since the early 1970s the Gallup organization has been regularly polling white and blacks on the status of race relations, asking whether they are good, okay, or bad.  Over four decades, starting in 1972, those of both races responding good or okay had slowly but steadily climbed, reaching in 2012 to 72% of whites and 67% of blacks.  And then the trend began reversing, well before Trump's appearance on the scene.  By 2022, the figures were 42% for whites and 33% for blacks.  You can now look at numerous surveys of use in the media of terms like "racism", "white supremacy", and see an enormous upturn in their use during the second Obama administration. 

[The term "Since he entered the political scene" is doing a lot of work here.  According to the FBI data there was no increase in hate crimes for much of Trump's first term.  There is a huge surge during the George Floyd riots of summer 2020 (make of that what you will), and while it is followed by a rapid decrease, hate crimes during the Biden administration occur at a rate of about double that of the Trump administration.  The increase in Asian attacks is, uncomfortably, attributed to a highly disproportionate number of assaults by blacks, which is why it has attracted less attention after an initial outburst aimed at alleged white anti-Asian hate. Perhaps the Biden administration's relentless emphasis on race essentialism and promoting the conspiracy theory that whites and Jews have plotted to maintain White Supremacy may also have had something to do with the increase.] 

[By citing the Charlottesville quote, the Times shows it is a prisoner of its own false narrative.  It is part of the "unexamined life" of those that work at the Times.  The full transcript of Trump's remarks show that right after he says "very fine people", he goes on to state he is not talking about neo-nazis and white nationalists.  Later in the same ramblings, he restates he is not talking about neo-nazis and white nationalists, adding "they are bad people".  In the context of his remarks it is clear Trump is referring to the debate over what to do with the Lee statue and clear he condemned those the press explicitly and repeatedly  said he refused to condemn.  In 2024, the leftist "fact checker" Snopes finally acknowledged that the prevailing media use of the term was misleading and false. Nonetheless, President Biden, VP Harris, and former President Obama all used the false accusation during the 2024 campaign, with Biden saying it was the reason he decided to run in 2020.

The Charlottesville incident also demolished the last bit of lingering respect I held for the traditional news media.  While, by 2017, I mistrusted most of what I heard and read from those sources, I still felt that they could get the basics right.  My mistake.  When I first heard about Trump's Charlottesville remarks my reaction was "Well, the guy's an idiot" and assumed he said it and meant exactly what the media told me he meant.  It was only a couple of years later when I came across a full transcript of the press conference that I realized I had been lied to.] 

["On Jan. 6, 2021, at least one rioter attacking the Capitol screamed that he was looking for “the big Jew,” referring to Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, Mr. Schumer has said."  Oh, my God, one rioter!!  And the source is Chuck Schumer?  The Times is really reaching here for examples.  Here's something we do know about Senator Schumer.  In 2024, confident that the Dems would hold regain the House, and hold the Senate and the Presidency, he reassured Columbia University, in an email obtained by a Congressional committee, that it could ignore all those Republicans pestering the school about antisemitism because it would all go away after the election.  I don't think the Times wrote a story about that email.]

The problem extends to popular culture. Joe Rogan, the podcaster who endorsed Mr. Trump last year, has hosted Holocaust conspiracy theorists on his show. Mr. Rogan once said of Jews, “They run everything.” In the Trumpist right, antisemitism has a home.

It also has a home on the progressive left, and the bipartisan nature of the problem has helped make it distinct. Progressives reject many other forms of hate even as some tolerate antisemitism. College campuses, where Jewish students can face social ostracization, have become the clearest example. A decade ago, members of the student government at U.C.L.A. debated blocking a Jewish student from a leadership post, claiming that she might not be able to represent the entire community. In 2018, spray-painted swastikas appeared on walls at Columbia. At Baruch, Drexel and the University of Pittsburgh, activists have recently called for administrators to cut ties with or close Hillel groups, which support Jewish life. In a national survey by Eitan Hersh of Tufts University and Dahlia Lyss, college students who identified as liberal were more likely than either moderates or conservatives last year to say that they “avoid Jews because of their views.”

["Progressives reject many other forms of hate even as some tolerate antisemitism."  Can we please stop with this progressive self-congratulation?  How many articles has the NY Times published in the past decade about white people, that had it been done regarding any other race would be promptly denounced as racist?  The Times supported continuing the documented Ivy League practice of discriminating against Asians in admissions and denounced the Supreme Court decision banning the practice. And have you read the outpouring of hate by some progressives against Hispanics because of their increased support for Trump in 2024?] 

[Notice how all the college examples they give are of students, none of administrators or the institutions themselves, despite many well-documented incidents.  There is no mention of the recent report on Harvard's blatant anti-semitism.  That's because mentioning antisemitism condoned or practices by the institutions would be seen as pro-Trump and lead to bigger questions about what is happening more broadly in education.] 

One explanation is that antisemitism has become conflated with the divisive politics of the current Israel-Hamas war. It is certainly true that criticism of the Israeli government is not the same thing as antisemitism. This editorial board has long defended Israel’s right to exist while also criticizing the government for its treatment of Palestinians. Since the current war began, we have abhorred the mass killing of civilians and the destruction of Gaza. Israel’s reflexive defenders are wrong, and they hurt their own cause when they equate all such arguments with antisemitism. But some Americans have gone too far in the other direction. They have engaged in whataboutism regarding anti-Jewish hate. They have failed to denounce antisemitism in the unequivocal ways that they properly denounce other bigotry.

[There are many Jews, including me, who don't like Netanyahu and think at least parts of the settlements policy in the West Bank are bonkers.  But there are vanishingly few Jews who do not support the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.  The small cadre of anti-Zionist Jews can be found primarily in academia or the NGO community where their real religion is Progressivism.  We see a recent example in the proud announcement of Harvard Divinity School regarding its first Professor of Modern Jewish Studies, Shaul Magid, an anti-Zionist Jew.  The school boasts of Magid, “His disciplinary range stretches from Hasidic mysticism and American Judaism to critical Black studies and political theology".  We know what that phrasing really means.  This is Harvard Divinity School saying to those protesting Harvard's antisemitism, "screw you Jews, you better know your place."] 

Natan Sharansky, the former Soviet dissident, has suggested a “3D” test for when criticism of Israel crosses into antisemitism, with the D’s being delegitimization, demonization and double standards. Progressive rhetoric has regularly failed that test in recent years. “Americans generally have greater ability to identify Jew hatred when it comes from the hard right and less ability and comfort to call out Jew hatred when it comes from the hard left or radical Islamism,” said Rachel Fish, an adviser to Brandeis University’s Presidential Initiative on Antisemitism.

["Hard right" and "hard left" are false equivalencies.] 

Consider the double standard that leads to a fixation on Israel’s human rights record and little campus activism about the records of China, Russia, Sudan, Venezuela or almost any other country. Consider how often left-leaning groups suggest that the world’s one Jewish state should not exist and express admiration for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — Iran-backed terrorist groups that brag about murdering Jews. Consider how often people use “Zionist” as a slur — an echo of Soviet propaganda from the Cold War — and call for the exclusion of Zionists from public spaces. The definition of a Zionist is somebody who supports the existence of Israel.

Historical comparisons can also be instructive. The period since Oct. 7, 2023, is hardly the first time that global events have contributed to a surge in hate crimes against a specific group. Asian Americans were the victims in 2020 and 2021 after the Covid pandemic began in China. Muslim Americans were the victims after Sept. 11, 2001. In those periods, a few fringe voices, largely on the far right, tried to justify the hate, but the response from much of American society was denunciation. President George W. Bush visited a mosque on Sept. 17, 2001, and proclaimed, “Islam is peace.” During Covid, displays of Asian allyship filled social media.

Recent experience has been different in a couple of ways. One, the attacks against Jews have been even more numerous and violent, as the F.B.I. data shows. Two, the condemnation has been quieter and at times tellingly agonized. University leaders have often felt uncomfortable decrying antisemitism without also decrying Islamophobia. Islamophobia, to be clear, is a real problem that deserves attention on its own. Yet antisemitism seems to be a rare type of bigotry that some intellectuals are uncomfortable rebuking without caveat. After the Sept. 11 attacks, they did not feel the need to rebuke both Islamophobia and antisemitism. Nor should they have. People should be able to denounce a growing form of hatred without ritually denouncing other forms.

Alarmingly, the antisemitic rhetoric of both the political right and the left has filtered into justifications for violence. But there has been an asymmetry in recognizing the connections. After a gunman murdered 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh in 2018, observers correctly noted that he had become radicalized partly through racist right-wing social media. There has been a similar phenomenon in some recent attacks, this time with the assailants using the language of the left.

The man who burned marchers in Colorado shouted “Free Palestine!” and (awkwardly) “End Zionist!” The man charged with killing the young Israeli Embassy workers in Washington last month is suspected of having posted an online manifesto titled “Escalate for Gaza, Bring the War Home.” His supporters have since published a petition that includes “Globalize the Intifada.” The demonizing, delegitimizing rhetoric of the right bore some responsibility for the Pittsburgh massacre; the demonizing, delegitimizing rhetoric of the left bears some responsibility for the recent attacks.

Americans should be able to recognize the nuanced nature of many political debates while also recognizing that antisemitism has become an urgent problem. It is a different problem — and in many ways, a narrower one — than racism. Antisemitism has not produced shocking gaps in income, wealth and life expectancy in today’s America. Yet the new antisemitism has left Jewish Americans at a greater risk of being victimized by a hate crime than any other group. Many Jews live with fears that they never expected to experience in this country.

[These sentences reveal the Times worldview; "It is a different problem — and in many ways, a narrower one — than racism. Antisemitism has not produced shocking gaps in income, wealth and life expectancy in today’s America".  In other words, racism is America's real problem while antisemitism is a problem for Jews and one that distracts from America's real problem which is why antisemitism needs addressing.  This means that Times has learned nothing, or wants to learn nothing, about the ideology and fake history, as in the 1619 Project, it has promoted in recent years.  In that respect, the Times continues to endorse a racist ideology in which the only reason for any discrepancy between races and ethnic groups in our society is because of white and Jewish supremacy.  The Times will never escape its contradictions until it repudiates racial essentialism.]

No political arguments or ideological context can justify that bigotry. The choice is between denouncing it fully and encouraging an even broader explosion of hate.

 

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Downfall: The End Of The War With Japan

This is a revised version of a post I published on this date ten years ago.

On June 18, 1945, at a White House meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretary of War and the Secretaries of the Army and Navy, President Harry Truman approved plans for the invasion of Japan.  Along with the President the other key participants were General George C Marshall and Admiral Ernest King, Chiefs of Staff for the Army and Navy.

http://www.defense.gov/specials/secdef_histories/secdefimg/georgemarshall.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/FADM_Ernest_J._King.jpg

Richard B. Frank's 1999 book, Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire, using information that had only become available in the prior decade recasts our understanding of the events of the last few months of WWII and the endgame with Japan, culminating in its surrender on August 14, 1945 (the formal ceremony took place on the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay on September 2).  These sources include Russian archives which became available after the fall of the Soviet Union; the release, after Emperor Hirohito's death in 1989, of his lengthy account (dictated in early 1946) of those months; the completion of the Japanese War History Series and the release of additional American intelligence information, most importantly, of the Magic Diplomatic Summaries.  The Magic materials were a daily summary of intercepted Japanese diplomatic cables produced by U.S. intelligence analysts.  These summaries, distributed to senior American policy makers, provide us with a new window on the information they were receiving about Japanese intentions and the contemporaneous interpretations placed on that information.

In recent decades the end of the war has focused on the American decision to use the newly developed atomic bombs, but Frank's book covers much broader ground, opening our eyes to a vision of a surprising counterfactual history in which the U.S. may not have invaded Japan, even if the bombs had not been dropped and the war had continued beyond mid-August 1945.

What were Truman and the others thinking about as they entered the meeting room on June 18?

The night before, Truman had written in his diary that the decision whether to "invade Japan [or] bomb and blockade" would be his "hardest decision to date".

The men entering the meeting knew the American public was increasingly war-weary and shocked by the enormous casualties of the past year.  In the first 30 months of WWII, the U.S. suffered 91,000 battle deaths, an average of about 3,000 a month.  With the D-Day landings in France and the American assault on Saipan in the Pacific in June 1944, the toll accelerated.  During the next twelve months, 196,000 Americans died in combat, an average of more than 16,000 a month (1).  With the end of the European war in May, public pressure to start bringing the troops home was increasing, though a poll that month found the U.S. public still preferring unconditional surrender to a negotiated end to the war by a margin of 9 to 1.

In early 1945 the Pacific war grew even more horrendous as we approached Japan.  On the 8-square miles of Iwo Jima over five weeks in February and March 1945, 7,000 Americans died and 17,000 were wounded fighting 21,000 Japanese soldiers; the desperate nature of the fighting captured in the words of General Graves Erskine at the dedication of the 3rd Marine Division Cemetery on Iwo:

"Victory was never in doubt . .  . What was in doubt, in all our minds, was whether there would be any of us left to dedicate our cemetery at the end, or whether the last Marine would die knocking out the last Japanese gun and gunner."
Iwo was followed on April 1 by the American landing on Okinawa.  In the next ten weeks another 50,000 American soldiers and sailors were killed or wounded in the course of eliminating a Japanese garrison of 92,000 in a struggle that came to resemble the trench warfare of WWI, the grinding and unrelenting nature of which had also resulted in thousands of additional psychiatric casualties.For a better idea of what the awful fighting conditions read With The Old Breed: From Peleliu To Okinawa, Marine veteran E.B. Sledge's unforgettable account of combat on the hillsides under continuous shelling amidst the mud and broken bodies. Along with these campaigns significant fighting continued in the Philippines, at sea, and in smaller operations on islands across the Pacific as well as by our British, Australian and New Zealand allies engaged across the Pacific and in Burma.

Along with the weariness, the increasing toll from these battles enraged American civilians and soldiers.  Many accounts by American soldiers bitterly reflect on the senselessness of what the Japanese army was doing - they had clearly lost the war by this point - why sacrifice themselves and cause more Americans to die in the process?  There had been great anger against Japan since the start of the war, triggered by the surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, and amplified by increasing reports of atrocities against American prisoners (according to polling data public anger against the Germans was less until the discovery of the Nazi death camps at the end of the war).  Now it was being ratcheted up even further as thousands of Americans died needlessly because the Japanese could not recognize they had lost the war, inducing a high degree of fatalism among the U.S. soldiers who were told that summer they would be part of the invasion force.

Those meeting on June 18 knew the Allied policy was unconditional surrender for Japan as set by FDR and Churchill at the Casablanca Conference in 1943.

They knew that the Magic Summaries showed no Japanese government disposition for peace on these terms, and that the military members who dominated the cabinet still hoped that enough casualties could be inflicted upon the invading Americans so a peace, more favorable to Japan, could be negotiated.

They knew that Japan still had 2 million military personnel stationed outside Japan, scattered across Pacific islands, New Guinea, the Dutch East Indies, China, Korea, Burma and Indochina and they wanted to force a formal surrender by the Japanese government to avoid years of piecemeal fighting with each of these isolated forces.

At the June 18 meeting the broad strategy for the invasion of Japan was set out, and approval given to initiate formal planning for the invasions.  The first landings would be on the island of Kyushu, the southernmost of the four main Japanese homeland islands, on November 1.  Kyushu's seizure was required so that the Air Force could build the airfields needed for the fighter aircraft to provide air cover for the climactic landing on the Honshu plain near Tokyo planned for March 1, 1946. 

Truman was told the military planners assumed that about 760,000 American troops would face 350,000 Japanese on Kyushu supported by about 2500-3000 aircraft.  Although the Joint Chiefs unanimously supported this decision, the President was not told that the Navy, unlike the Army, did not believe an invasion would ultimately be needed and that in Admiral King was only supporting preparations for the landing on Kyushu.  King believed a blockade and aerial bombing would bring about surrender.  His Pacific commander, Admiral Nimitz, had recently told King he had changed his mind about supporting the invasion "after further experience in fighting against Japanese forces".

Six weeks later, American intelligence had assembled a completely different picture of what awaited on Kyushu.  The Japanese Army had figured out that the American landing would be on the island and bet everything on a strategy of inflicting maximum casualties in order to achieve a negotiated settlement to the war, involving preservation of the Emperor, no Allied occupation of Japan, and retaining at least some portions of Japan's overseas empire. What had changed in those few weeks?

  • Instead of 350,000 troops, American intelligence now estimated there would be 650,000 (it was discovered after the end of the war that the Japanese had actually packed 900,000 troops onto the island), and the Japanese had identified the specific American landing beaches.

  • Instead of 2500-3000 aircraft, the Japanese had between 6,000 and 10,000 and were going to employ many of them in waves of kamikaze attacks against vulnerable transport ships packed with thousands of American troops (the Okinawa kamikaze attacks, which cost the lives of 5,000 Americans, had been on warships)
  • The entire civilian population of the island had been mobilized, armed (in some cases just with hoes and spades) and trained to attack the American soldiers when they came ashore, creating a situation where the U.S. military would be unable to distinguish between soldiers and civilians, resulting in enormous casualties on both sides.
  • The Japanese military had issued orders to kill all Allied prisoners of war once the American invasion started.
During these weeks the Magic Diplomatic Summaries indicated no improvement in the prospects of a peace offer from Japan on Allied terms.  An enormous literature on this topic has been created over the past half-century.  For a time in the 1960s and 1970s, revisionist historians held the high ground with claims that Truman and company ignored Japanese peace overtures because of concerns about the rising power of the Soviet Union, leading to the use of the bomb as an intimidation move against the Russians.  As more documents and information have become available, along with revelations of how some revisionist historians distorted and cherry-picked existing data, the tide of revisionism has receded.  Without rehashing the entire saga, suffice it to say that Japan's foreign minister admitted after the war that the Cabinet never agreed on a specific route for terminating the war, and the Magic intercepts revealed a series of communications between the government at home and its ambassadors that were confusing in many respects but always clear in one: unconditional surrender was unacceptable and future events (i.e, casualties inflicted on Americans during the anticipated invasion) might lead to termination of the war on more favorable terms. For those interested in knowing more about the rise and fall of revisionism read this scholarly paper.

According to Franks, the new intelligence would have led Admiral King to withdraw his support for the Kyushu landing, precipitating a new strategic review by President Truman in the second half of August, particularly in light of the President's concern over American casualties, if the war had not ended on August 14 after the bombing of Hiroshima (August 6) and Nagasaki (August 9) and the entry of the Soviet Union into the war on August 8.

At the same time, the Air Force had come up with a new approach to strategic bombing that it planned to implement in September 1945.  Unlike the massive incendiary attacks which burned down large parts of Japan's biggest cities between March and June, the new campaign focused on a small number of key rail yards, bridges, tunnels and ferries.  The Air Force had finally realized that with Japan's poor, and mostly unpaved, road network, the distribution of food supplies could be paralyzed by disrupting fewer than 100 rail and shipping locations.  With Japan's population already on the brink of starvation, the effect of this campaign would have been catastrophic.  It was already so bad that, even with the war ending in August, as late as March 1946 the average daily ration for Tokyo civilians, nominally only 1,042 calories was, in reality, closer to 800 calories, and starvation only avoided by massive U.S. food supplies.

This strategic review would have provoked intense controversy within the Administration since the U.S. Army was still committed to the invasion strategy.  There is no indication that Truman ever knew of the new intelligence on the Japanese military buildup on Kyushu or of the new Air Force bombing plan, and with the end of the war it was not necessary to raise the issue to the Presidential level.

All of this creates a hypothetical future where no American invasion of Japan occurs even if the war went on beyond mid-August.  The likely results:
  • Continued American blockade of the Japan home islands and complete disruption of the food supply by the Air Force bombing campaign inducing famine in the civilian population.
  • The invasion of lightly defended Hokkaido (the northernmost home island of Japan) by the Soviets in September 1945 - one of the revelations from the opening of the Soviet archives in the 1990s.
  • The British proceeding with their planned amphibious landing in Malaya, scheduled for early September, and incurring heavy casualties against Japanese forces who had anticipated the landings.
  • Continued fighting in the Philippines, on smaller islands across the Pacific, and in China.
  • Huge death tolls of Asian civilians under Japanese occupation (primarily in China and secondarily in Southeast Asia), estimated to be 100,000 to 250,000 a month from famine, disease, imprisonment and execution.

The question is how long could Japan have survived in this scenario and whether the ending would be an organized surrender of all Japanese military forces or a disorganized collapse in which scattered fighting continued across the Pacific and mainland Asia. The end of the Pacific war, just as that of the European war, would have been grim under any scenario.  

This post only begins to touch on the issues impacting the end of the war and covered in detail in Downfall.  Frank discusses the Soviet attack on Japan in Manchuria and its impact on the Japanese government, the lead up to, and the impact of, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks, Japanese cabinet deliberations and debates over peace terms, the controversy over American casualty estimates for the invasion (for an excellent summary of the complex history and methodology of the casualty estimates read "A Score of Bloody Okinawas and Iwo Jimas" by DM Giangreco in Hiroshima In History, edited by Robert James Maddox (2007)) and the nuts and bolts of U.S. and Japanese military operational planning.

The book is thought provoking, giving the reader a greater appreciation of the information decision makers had available, the different paths that could have been followed and the consequences that would have flowed from them.  It is particularly valuable in conveying what it is like to have to make decisions affecting the lives of millions with only the information you have available at the time and without the advantage of hindsight.

It strikes THC that these events would be a terrific instructional tool for students and others regarding real-life contingencies and decision-making.  A course where students were assigned roles in the American civilian and military hierarchy and then fed information as it became available and asked to make decisions based on the available information would make for a memorable learning experience, and would probably be humbling and sobering to those who think everything looks as clear to the participants at the time as it does to others in hindsight.  It could be done in two parts - the first based upon what we know happened through the decisions to drop the atomic bombs and accept the continued role of Emperor Hirohito and a second based on a scenario where the bombs are not dropped and the war continues.  Most importantly, those participating should be challenged along the way by the instructor(s) but not led to any predetermined outcome.

----------------------------------------

(1)  196,000 is double the total number of American combat fatalities in the 80 years since 1945 including Korea, Vietnam, The Gulf War, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Iran Refresher

Ten years ago I wrote four posts about the Iran Nuclear Deal.  Thought I'd relink to them given current events.

The Iran Deal: It Was Never About Nuclear Weapons in which I analyze the negotiations, the actual contents of the JCPOA (yes, I read the whole thing), and the underlying agenda of the Obama administration.  It also includes the conclusions of a number of prominent Democrats.

He's At It Again about the rhetoric employed by the president in support of the agreement.

Let's Not Forget About the Iran Nuclear Deal discussing progressive Democrat Rep. Ted Lieu's analysis of why the JCPOA was a bad deal.

What Is The Iran Deal?  Turns out it was not a treaty, nor an executive agreement, a signed document, or legally binding.  It was, in John Kerry's words, simply a political commitment.

For an assessment of the current situation, today's Tablet Magazine carries an interview with a former IAEA inspector regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, Can Israel End Iran's Nuclear Program?   Having reached this point, the only way out is to do so by whatever means necessary (though I want Israel to do this without direct American involvement).

I'll also link to a piece I wrote in January 2020, Reflections On The Middle East Wars, which includes some additional comments on Iran.  Since writing it, I've done additional research which would lead me to add material to the Iraq section, though I knew the basics at the time and should have made the point more clearly.  If I were doing that post today I would emphasize in addition to the intelligence failures, the absolute disaster of the Bush administration when it came to post-war planning and defining goals.  I was not impressed with George W Bush during the 2000 campaign but felt reassured on the foreign policy side with Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Powell leading the team.  I viewed them as sober, experienced politicians.  What a mistake!  Cheney went nuts, Rumsfeld was irresponsible, and Powell employed passive-aggressive behavior throughout.  They were never in agreement about the decision to attack Iraq or what to do afterwards while National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice failed miserably in what should have been her role in reconciling those views and coming to some time of agreement.  And the ultimate responsibility was President Bush's in going to war with no clear sense of goals or plan for the aftermath, other than fantasies about Iraq's future.  The failures of the foreign policy establishments of both parties after the ending of the Cold War is a cautionary tale and one of the reasons Trump ended up as president.

Monday, June 16, 2025

Raffy's Last Game

 


And now Rafael Devers is gone from the Red Sox.  Pictured are my two Devers bobbleheads.  His last game with the Sox was on Sunday against the Yankees in which Raffy homered in the 5th and drew a walk in his next, and last, at bat in the 8th.

After a miserable start to the season, going 0-21 with 15 strikeouts, Raffy had been the best hitter on the team, averaging .296, slugging .538, with an on-base percentage of .413.

The return haul from the Giants in the trade is not impressive.  Nor was the return from the Dodgers in 2018 in the Mookie Betts trade.  There are some differences in the circumstances.  Mookie had an expiring contract and a was much better all-round player.  Devers is in the 3rd season of a ten-year contract, defensively challenged, and playing solely as a DH.  In addition, he and management clearly did not see eye to eye.  Still disappointing as the Sox had just swept the Yanks, won 7 of 8, and were above .500 for the first time in over a month.  Guess management needed to find something to break the momentum.

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Solly's Last Game

On this date in 1959, 36 year old Solly Hemus entered the game in the 8th inning as a pinch-hitter for shortstop Alex Grammas.  The St Louis Cardinals, playing at home, entered the 8th down 3-1 to the Cincinnati Reds.  With two out, George Crowe doubled home Ken Boyer, reducing the Reds' margin to one, and Solly came to the plate with Crowe on second and a chance to even the score.  Instead, he hit a weak grounder to shortstop Eddie Kasko who made the easy throw to first, ending the inning.  It was Solly's last appearance as a player in a major league game.

 

My first memory of collecting baseball cards was of the most frequent cards being those of Phillies shortstop Granny Hamner and Solly Hemus of the Cards, so this must have been 1959, or possibly 1958 (when Hemus was also with the Phillies).  It was always a disappointment getting Granny or Solly because I wanted the big sluggers and top pitchers who were rarities in the card sets we purchased, although a stick of gum came with each pack!

Solomon Joseph Hemus was a shortstop, second baseman, and pinch hitter, who came up to the Cards in 1949, after spending four years during WW2 as an ordnance loader on aircraft carriers, playing with the Birds until traded to the Phillies during the 1956 season and returning to St Louis before the 1959 season. 

Born in Phoenix in 1923, Solly's SABR biography starts with this description:

Pepper pot. Bulldog. Firebrand. Scrapper. Solly Hemus answered to all those descriptions in 11 years as a major-league player and 2½ as a manager.

It goes on to quote Cards GM Bing Devine, Solly was a hell-bent-for-leather, fiery ballplayer with limited talent.  

Hemus was considered a weak defensive infielder.  That description is consistent across the board from the observers reported in the SABR biography. However, it raises an interesting question about the newer baseball metrics, because from 1951 through 1953, Hemus is rated by Baseball-Reference as the fourth, first, and sixth rated defensive player in the National League according to Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  Defensive performance is notoriously difficult to quantify and I think it more likely this is a problem with WAR than with contemporary observers.

Solly is also rated by WAR as a top ten offensive player in 1952 and 1953, even though his conventional stats (HR/RBI/Avg) don't look too impressive (15/52/.268 and 14/61/.279).  However, he drew a lot of walks, something no one was paying a lot of attention to at the time, finishing 4th and 5th in the league, making him 6th and 3rd in on-base percentage (another stat no one used at the time).  His effectiveness as a hitter also explains his extended career as a pinch hitter after he stopped being a regular after the '53 season.

According to the SABR biography, Solly was also a racist, something that became apparent in his 2 1/2 tenure as Cardinals manager which began with the 1959 season.  The Cards were one of the last National League teams to integrate and two young black players, Curt Flood and Bob Gibson, began their careers under Hemus.  Both grew to despise their manager for his remarks and treatment; Gibson about to quit baseball because of it until coach Harry Walker persuaded him to stay. Years later Hemus apologized to both players but the damage had been done.  The SABR bio concludes with this:

Late in his life he told author David Halberstam that he had grown up and started in baseball in an era when ethnic insults were common, and had failed to keep up with changing times. He always thought of himself as the underdog: “If you can’t hit, you can’t run, and you can’t throw, you’ve got to holler at them.”

Hemus prospered in his post-baseball career and lived until he was 94, passing in 2017.

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Surf's Up

The first albums I owned were by The Beach Boys.  This song from 1963 got me interested in the group,  a knock off of Chuck Berry's Sweet Little Sixteen with a surf sound and new lyrics.  California seemed so exotic to a kid in Connecticut.

Four years later they were recording this.  It was all Brian Wilson.