Sunday, October 20, 2024

Various Readings

 

 https://unherd.com/2024/04/the-israel-gaza-war-has-changed-everything/

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/04/gaza-cease-fire-alone-wont-repair-larger-enduring-rift-political-scientist-says/ 

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/why-i-resigned-from-dc-abortion-fund 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/history-goes-to-war-in-the-holy-land-israel-leading-historian-palestine-hamas-66384695?st=ohik514thqsix8s&reflink=article_email_share

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-so-many-of-us-were-wrong-about

https://www.thefp.com/p/kids-in-jeopardy 

https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1781459984758304854

https://blog.simplejustice.us/2024/04/21/the-title-ix-joke-is-back/

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-cooking?r=sc78&triedRedirect=true 

https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/do-economists-understand-business?r=sc78&triedRedirect=true

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-did-the-bbc-get-the-trans-debate-so-wrong/

https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1776616861888655835 

https://twitter.com/SecBecerra/status/1774466699066024177

https://www.notonyourteam.co.uk/p/the-progressive-revolt-against-equality-19f

https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2024/04/the-difference-between-belief-and-observance

https://twitter.com/InezFeltscher/status/1774896798701592577

https://gruntledhistoryteacher.substack.com/p/antonine-pious-and-one-stitch-in?r=sc78&triedRedirect=true

https://scholars-stage.org/american-nightmares-wang-huning-and-alexis-de-tocqueville-dark-visions-of-the-future/

https://www.wetheblacksheep.com/p/i-grew-up-in-communist-romania-whats?r=sc78&triedRedirect=true

https://newcriterion.com/article/narratives-of-russian-history/

DA Henderson https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgzGxSHlNfJjfKbtZszdrrHTswXWN


 

 

Durham report 5

 

 April 10, 2016 Obama defends Clinton in an interview on “Fox News Sunday” but “guarantees” that he will not interfere with the ongoing investigation into her private email server.

Sept 13, 2016 It is revealed that Cheryl Mills, Clinton’s chief of staff and adviser at the State Department, was given a limited immunity deal by the FBI during its investigation of Clinton’s private email server.  


 


March 31 - Meeting of National Security Advisory Board

April 2016 - Free Beacon terminated Fusion GPS

May 6, 10 - Papa meets with Aussies 

July 22 - DNC leaks via Wikileaks

July 28, 2016 - Aussie report to FBI 

December - FBI determines Danchenko is main subsource

December - Obama asks for IC assessment

Dec 5 - CIA NIO for Russia on interference

January 5, Comey, Brennan, and Clapper meet with Obama, Biden, Asst AG Sally Yates, Rice

January 6, CBC meet with Trump

January 6 - IC Assessment released

January 9-10, Steele Dossier goes public 

January 20 - Susan Rice memo

January 20  Trump inauguration

January 24 Flynn interviewed

January 24-26 Danchenko interviewed

January 27, 2017 Comey with Trump

March 1 NY Times report

March 2017 - Farkas incident

May 17 - Mueller appointed


The President brought up the Steele report that Comey had raised in the January 6, 2017 briefing and stated that he was thinking about ordering the FBI to investigate the allegations to prove they were false. Comey responded that the President should think carefully about issuing such an order because it could create a narrative that the FBI was investigating him personally, which was incorrect.


-----------------------------------------------------

(1) Igor Danchenko is a Russian national, living in the U.S., Christopher Steele's "main sub-source", and responsible for the majority of the allegations in the Steele Dossier.

(2)  Durham's focus is on the Steele Dossier.  One retort to the failure to verify any of the Steele Dossier's substantive allegations is to claim, "well, the Russia collusion story is about much more than the Steele Dossier".  Actually, it's not.  Virtually every part of the alleged collusion is referenced in the various reports contained with the Dossier (which consists of reports issued from June through September of 2016).  The only significant incidents not covered in the Dossier are the Papadopolous-Mifsud meetings in the spring of 2016, which proved to be a dry hole once investigators probed it (we'll discuss the details in a subsequent post on the Durham report) and the Trump Tower NYC meeting in June 2016 (for the details on that fiasco read this).  However, in the case of the latter it is possible that Clinton's contractor, Fusion GPS, may have been aware of the meeting at the time, as Glenn Simpson, who ran the company, knew the Russian lawyer who set up the meeting because they were working together on behalf of a Kremlin-connected oligarch who was trying to get sanctions revoked.  In fact, Simpson and the Russian lawyer met the day before and day after the Trump Tower meeting.  We also have crazy Roger Stone and his pathetic partner, Jerome Corsi, desperately trying to get information from Wikileaks in the summer of 2016 but (1) they never got it, and (2) if the Trump campaign was colluding with the Kremlin, why couldn't they get it directly from the Russians?

(2)  In a subsequent piece I'll write more about Mifsud, whose role remains puzzling to me.



 

 

No Mifsud

No DNC Wikileaks

No big picture 

No Flynn

 

 Report on Matters Related to Intelligence Activities and Investigations Arising Out of the 2016 Presidential Campaign

submitted to Merrick B Garland on May 12, 2023

contains classified appendix

March 2019 Mueller Report

"did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities"

Durham appointed as Special Attorney on February 6, 2020 and Special Counsel on October 19, 2020

Scope

The Special Counsel is authorized to investigate whether any federal official, employee, or any other person or entity violated the law in connection with the intelligence, counter-intelligence, or law-enforcement activities directed at the 2016 presidential campaigns, individuals associated with those campaigns, and individuals associated with the administration of President Donald J Trump, including but not limited to Crossfire Hurricane and the investigations of Special Counsel Robert S Mueller, III. 

"The Office structured its work around evidence for possible use in prosecutions of federal crimes . . ." (page 3)

"Although a substantial majority of the individuals voluntarily cooperated with the Office, some only provided information under a subpoena or grant of immunity.  Some individuals who, in our view, had important or relevant imformation about the topics under investigation refused to be interviewed or other cooperate with the Office [Comey, Priestap, Strzok]" p4

480 interviews, one million documents

"A statement that the investigation did not establish particular facts does not mean there was no evidence of those facts" p 5,  quoting Mueller report - turnabout is fair play!

" . . . the law does not always make a person's bad judgment, even horribly bad judgment, standing alone, a crime.  Nor does the law criminalize all unseemly or unethical conduct that political campaigns might undertake for tactical advantage . . . Finally, in almost all cases, the government is required to prove a person's actual criminal intent . . . " p 5

"There are also reasons why, in examining politically-charged and high-profile issues such as these, the Office must exercise - and has exercised - special care.  First, juries can bring strongly held views to the courtroom in criminal trials involving political subject matters, and those views can, in turn, affect the likelihood of obtaining a conviction, separate and apart from the strength of the actual evidence and despite a court's best efforts to empanel a fair and impartial jury." p5 - bigger issue for the USA

"If this report and the outcome of the Special Counsel's investigation leave some with the impression that injustices or misconduct have gone unaddressed, it is not because the Office concluded that no such injustices or misconduct occurred." p6

Before receipt of Papadopoulos info on July 28, 2016, "the government possessed no verified intelligence reflecting that Trump or the Trump campaign was involved in a conspiracy or collaborative relationship with officials of the Russian government . . . neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion in their holdings at the commencement of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation".  p 8

Opened by Peter Strzok at direction of McCabe" as full investigation "without ever having spoken to the persons who provided the information", nor any review of its own intelligence databases or those of other U.S. intelligence agencies.  "Had it done so . . . the FBI would have learned that their own experienced Russian analysts had no information about Trump being involved with Russian leadership officials, nor were others in sensitive positions at the CIA, the NSA, and the Department of State aware of such evidence . . ."   At the time of opening the investigation, "the FBI had no information in its holdings indicating that at any time during the campaign anyone in the Trump campaign had been in contact with any Russian intelligence officials." p 9

Notes Strzok and McCabe had documented hostile feelings towards Trump.

"The speed and manner" in which the investigation was opened "also reflected a noticeable departure from hos it approached prior matters involving possible attempted foreign interference plans aimed at the Clinton campaign." p9, including "possibly illegal financial contributions to the Clinton campaign on behalf of a foreign entity" with defensive briefings offered or no investigation at all. p 10

"These examples are also markedly different from the FBI's actions with respect to other highly significant intelligence it received from a trusted foreign source pointing to a Clinton campaign plan to vilify Trump by tying him to Vladimir Putin so as to divert attention from her own concerns relating to her use of a private email server.  Unlike the FBI's opening of a full investigation of unknown members of the Trump campaign bsed on raw, uncorroborated information, in this separate matter involving a purported Clinton campaign plan, the FBI never opened any type of inquiry, issued any taskings, employed any analytical personnel, pr produced any analytical products in connection with the information.  This lack of action was despite the fact that the significance of the Clinton plan intelligence was such as to have prompted the Director of the CIA to brief the President, Vice President, Attorney General, Director of the FBI, and other senior government officials about its content with days of its receipt." p 10

Full investigations of George Papadopoulos, Carter Page, Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn.

Sought FISA warrants on Papa and Page.  Papa unsuccessful, Page unsuccesful "until the Crossfire Hurricane investigators first obtained" the Steele reports. p 11

"Our investigation determined that the Crossfire Hurricane investigators did not and could not corroborate any of the substantive allegations contained in the Steele reporting."  Steele could not provide any such information even after being offered "$1 million or more by the FBI for such corroboration".  Danchenko, when interviewed in January 2017 could not offer corroboration of anything - characterized his info as "rumor and speculation". p 11, more on p 13

What Danchenko told FBI was inconsistent with what Steele told FBI but FISA court never advised of inconsistencies. p 13

"The FBI's own records and the recordings establish that Page made multiple exculpatory statements . . . but the Crossfire Hurricane investigators failed to make that information known to the Department attorneys or to the FISC.  Page also made explicit statements refuting allegations contained in the Steele reporting about his lack of any relationship with Paul Manafort, but the FBI failed to follow logical investigative leads related to those statements . . . p 12

Unvetted and unverified Steele reports used within days in FISA application.

"Speaking in confidence to a compatriot in late July 2016, Source E, an ethnic Russian close associate of Republican US presidential candidate Donald TRUMP, admitted that there was a well-developed conspiracy of co-operation between them and the Russian leadership.  This was managed on the TRUMP side by the Republican candidate's campaign manager, Paul MANAFORT, who was using foreign policy advisor, Carter PAGE, and others as intermediaries.  The two sides had a mutual interest in defeating Democratic presidential candidate Hillary CLINTON, whom President PUTIN apparently both hated and feared."

According to Durham, this report underpinned "the four FISA applications targeting Page". p12

DANCHENKO 

Subject of FBI counterintelligence operations from 2009 to 2011 triggered by approaching two Brookings Institution employees about willingness to supply classified information in return for cash.  Preliminary investigation became full investigation based on (1) being identified as associate of two FBI counterintelligence subjects, and had previous contact with the Russian embassy and known Russian intelligence officers.  Investigation closed in March 2011 after FBI incorrectly thought Danchenko returned to Russia. p14  In Sept 2010 Danchenko and wife bought one way tickets to Russia but he NEVER BOARDED THE FLIGHT! 131

According to Baltimore FO agents matter was unresolved - believed Danchenko was "hiding in plain sight" in the U.S. while frequently traveling overseas to be debriefed by Russian intelligence. 132

FBI never attempted to resolve the prior investigation before opening him as a paid CHS (received more than $200,000).  Never disclosed prior investigation to Dept attorneys.

"It appears the FBI never gave appropriate consideration to the possibility that the intelligence Danchenko was providing to Steele - which, again, according to Danchenko himself, made up a significant majority of the information in the Steele Dossier reports - was, in whole or in part, Russian disinformation." p14

Allegation that Sergei Millian was Source E "The evidence uncovered by the Office showed that Danchenko never spoke with Sergei Millian and simply fabricated the allegations that he attributed to Millian." p16 

Brookings associate introduces Danchenko to Steele in 2010.  Danchenko retained by Steele in 2011. (127)

Initial interview with Danchenko on Jan 24-26, 2017, conducted pursuant to a grant of immunity arranged by his counsel.

In multiple interviews "Danchenko was unable to provide the FBI with corroborating evidence for any of the substantive allegations contained in the Steele report" and said most of the info he provided to Steele was "the product of casual conversations with people in his social circle". (127)

Despite, this in March 2017 he became a CHS - documentation "incorrectly noted that there was no derogatory information associated with Danchenko and that Danchenko had not been a prior subject of an FBI investigation" 133  Paid Danchenko 220K over 3.5 years.  Between all sources D was making about $16,000 a month on average from 2014 to 2021.  Moreover, FBI proposed making further payment of more than $300K in late 2020!   FBI HQ continued to resist efforts to have D closed as source 137  Assistant Director for Counterintelligence at HQ that D "was being paid for information he was providing that corroborated the Steele Dossier reporting"!!! 137  No one Office questioned could describe what D provided for the $.

Finally, in May 2019 FBI Validation Management Unit raised questions about Danchenko including past investigation, and several falsehoods and inconsistencies in his visa applications and immigration documents. 134-135  It was only then that FBI DC reached out to Baltimore - agent "expressed disbelief when she first learned that Danchenko had been signed up as an FBI source because, among other things, the FBI had not resolved the prior counterespionage case" 135

After leaving Brookings, Danchenko worked at a Virginia based-venture capital firm (127) but in 2014 it declared bankruptcy (128).  At the time, the firm was sponsoring Danchenko's visa application to remain in the U.S.  

Danchenko reached out to acquaintance who ran Virginia based IT staffing firm.  Employer said he'd hire and sponsor Danchenko if someone else paid his salary which Steele agreed to do. "Danchenko Employer was merely a front to allow Danchenko to continue his work on behalf of Orbis [Steele's firm], while at the same time allowing him to secure a work visa through alleged employment with a U.S. based company". 128   His employer, an ethnic Russian described Danchenko as "boastful . . . having low credibility, and a person who liked to embellish his purported contacts with the Kremlin". 128

Dachenko was being paid somewhere between 3 and 5K a month.  In addition from January 2016 to June 2021 Danchenko received over $436,000 in wire transfers from European businesses, including Orbis This is in addition to his Orbis salary.  129

"The failure of the FBI to assess properly the prior counterespionage investigation of Danchenko is incomprehensible". 240

 

-------------------------------------

DOLAN

". . . maintained relationships with several key Russian government officials, including Dimitry Peskov p 14 (Press Secretary for Kremlin)

Dolan source of pee tale and "admitted that he fabricated the allegation about Manafort" p15

"The FBI interviewed hundreds of individuals through the course of the Crossfire Hurricane and later investigations, and yet it did not interview Dolan . . ." p15

138-9 ". . .  previously served as (i) Executive Director of the Democratic Governors Association, (ii) Virginia Chairman of former President Clinton's 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, and (iii) an advisor to Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign" 138  President Clinton appointed Dolan to two four-year terms on the State Department's U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. 139

Dolan assisted with PR firm Ketchum;s rep of Russian Federation.  Part of his responsibility was monitoring policy discussions of U.S. based think tanks and reporting back to Russia. 139  Interacted frequently with Russian officials, particularly Dimitry Peskov Press Secretary, and Alex Pavlov, Asst Press Secretary.  In DC he maintained relationships with Sergei Kislyak Ambassador and Mikhail Kalugin, head of economics section, all of whom featured in the Steele Reports. 

Dolan served as advisor to the Valdai Club in Moscow "a Moscow based think tank that is closely associated with Russian President Putin and is viewed by many in the West as a vehicle for Russian propaganda". 142

Dolan recruited in 2015 to help with Moscow conference planned for October 2016 on investment opportunities in Russia.  To be held at Ritz Carlton.  Dolan asked Danchenko to assist.  Dolan visits Moscow in June 2016.  As further prep Dolan attended three meetings at Russian Embassy in 2016 and communicated with Embassy staff including Kislyak and Kalugin. 142

In June 2016 Dolan sent email to US acquaitance describing Danchenko "He is too young for KGB.  But I think he worked for FSB.  Since he told me he spent two years in Iran.  And when I first met him he knew more about me than I did." (winking emoticon) 143  In January 2017 he emailed an acquaitance describing Danchenko as a "Russian agent" p160

Trump did stay at Ritz Carlton in 2013 but not in Presidential Suite then, or ever. 146

How this was created - on August 19, 2016 Kalugin sends email to Dolan and others telling them after six years he is returning to Moscow in September.  September a new Steele report states, "as a prophylactic measure, a leading Russia diplomat, Mikhail Kalugin, had been withdrawn from Washington on short notice because Moscow feared his heavy involvement in the US presidential election operation . . ." 154

In January 2017 Danchenko informed FBI that Olga Galkina was source for several Steele report allegations. 163 and that she had a connection with Dolan.

". . . Dolan was never interviewed, despite the suggestion from both Steele and Galkina that Dolan could have information related to the Steele Reports and the detailed analysis undertaken by two FBI personnel assigned to the Mueller team." p160

In June 2017 FBI interview Danchenko said of Dolan, "Yeah he likes Russia . . . Uh, he's a bit naive in his, um liking of Russia". p162

". . .the FBI found no evidence that Cohen had met with Russian officials in Prague" 158 

When an FBI agent raised interviewing Dolan "with the Mueller Special Counsel team, he was explicitly told not to interview Dolan". 164  Agent said he aggressively pushed Dolan information and believed Andrew Weissman was in at least one of the briefings.

Galkina interviewd in Cyprus in August 2017 and appears forthcoming except when asked about Dolan, 166, but when pressed finally identified him as someone she passed Steele info on to.

In August 2017 two FBI analysts on Mueller team briefed several people, including Jeannie Rhee and drafted a case opening document for Dolan.  167-8  But on September 7 instructed "to cease all research and analysis related to Dolan".  One of the two was transferred same day to another team.

In Sept 2017 they were instructed to "cease work on attempting to corraborate the Steele reports" 169  FBI analyst contemporaneous notes "explicitly state that Mueller investigation leadership directed [them] to dedicate no resources" to Dolan.

Request to open case on Dolan denied and it was a "higher level decision" and case opening was to be deleted from computer system. 170

FBI analysts "discussed whether the decision not to pen on Dolan was politically motivated, given Dolan's extensive connections to the Democratic party" 170 with one of the analysts "speculated that the information on Dolan ran counter to the narrative that the Mueller Special Counsel investigators were cultivating" 171.  Analyst believed this decision would be reviewed by OIG and uploaded memorandum to three separate case files on the FBI system to make sure OIG would have access.

"The FBI interviewed hundreds of individuals through the course of the CH and Mueller Special Counsel investigations, and yet, they did not interview Dolan or the other two U.S. persons identified by Steele [in October 2016]. 172

WAS DOLAN FED INFO BY RUSSIANS BECAUSE OF CONNECTION WITH CLINTON?

----------------------------------------------

Steele working for Oleg Deripaska p151

 

FBI personnel working on that same FISA application displayed, at best, a cavalier attitude towards accuracy and completeness.  FBI personnel also repeatedly disregarded important requirements when they continued to seek renewals of that FISA surveillance while acknowledging - both then and in hindsight - that they did not genuinely believe there was probable cause to believe that the target was knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of a foreign power" p 17-18g

3 requirements for issuing FISA warrant: p31

1.  Probable cause to believe that the target of the surveillance is an agent of a foreign power

2.  For US person - showing that he at least may violate laws 

3.  For US person must be knowingly engaged

---------

NOTES:

Had no support for Steele Dossier allegations.  Briefed President, Biden, Rice on January 5.  On January 6, Comey briefs Trump.  3 days later it is public.  Someone leaked.

Mueller knew dossier was false, denied reviewing it because obstruction issue only made sense if it was still in play.  If acknowledged it was false, Trump's reaction much more understandable and obstruction falls apart.  Pages on Mifsud with no acknowledgements.

Clinesmith treatment by DC Bar.

---------

 Page known to FBI had been interviewed on three occasions between 2009 and 2013 by NYFO.  In 2015 interviewed again by NYFO.  Had been approached by Russian intelligence in failed recruitment effort. p 46

April 2016 NYFO opens counterintelligence investigation, not because of Page, but concern about Russians reaching out to him. p47

FISA application on Page deliberately omitted that he had been approved as operational contact by the CIA. 185  Clinesmith lied and said Page "was never a source"  vive la Resistance"!  FISA application misrepresented statements made by Page to CHS 204

Recordings of Page by CHS failed to find any damaging evidence.  Page said he never met Manafort [accurate].  Page sent Manafort one email and copied him on two others, but never received a response.

Yahoo! News report in late September of Sechin, Divyekin, Page secret meeting.  Two days later Page sends letter to Comey volunteering to speak to anyone in the FBI "in the interest of helping them put these outrageous allegations [about him] to rest". 197  In response, CH investigators were "prohibited by FBI senior executives from approaching Page" until authorization received in March 2017.  Once authorized Page sat for 5 voluntary interviews and "full cooperated with the FBI, even going so far as to bring his own PowerPoint presentation to one of the interviews" 200

On Oct 13, one week before initial Page application submitted two FBI agents:

Special Agent-2:  Yeah [Case agent -1] says no appetite to interview Page either.  thats stupid.

Supervisory Special Agent -1:  yeah-dude I dont know why we are even here.  197

Decisions were "effectively being made by the Director and Deputy Director of the FBI.  In this regard, according to McCabe, "Director Comey was getting daily briefings on this stuff, regularly" and the Director was intimately involved with the team that was working on the case". 199

"clear predisposition on the part of at least certain FBI personnel at the center of Crossfire Hurricane to open an investigation of Trump" p 47-48, citing Strzok, Lisa Page texts :

August 8, 2016

Page: [Trump's] not going to become president, right?  Right?!

Strzok:  No.  No, he's not.  We'll stop it.

Clinesmith - "viva le resistance" Nov 22, 2016

Strzok was going around Preistap to McCabe.

Starting Crossfire Hurricane

Papadopoulos met with Downer on May 6 and 10, 2016 in London with Aussie junior diplomat joined on the 10th by Downer.

Information on meeting provided by Australia to US Embassy in London on July 26 and passed on to FBI the next day.  Info contained May 16 cable from Downer:

He commented that the Clintons had "a lot of baggage" and suggested the Trump team had plenty of material to use in its campaign.  He also suggested the Trump team had received some kind of suggestion from Russia that it could assist this process with the anonymous release of information during the campaign that would be damaging to Mrs Clinton (and President Obama).  It was unclear whether he or the Russians were referring to material acquired publicly of [sic] through other means.  It was also unclear how Mr Trump's team reacted to the offer.  We note the Trump team's reaction could, in the end, have little bearing of [sic] what Russia decides to do, with our without Mr Trump's cooperation. p 52-53

(Another example of the catastrophe of adding Papa to the Board)

No reference to emails in note.

"When interviewed by the Office, Downer stated that he would have characterized the statements made by Papa differently than Australian Diplomat-1 did".   "According to Downer, Papa made no mention of Clinton emails, dirt or any specific approach by the Russian government to the Trump campaign team with an offer or suggestion of providing assistance.  Rather, Downer's recollection was that Papa simply stated 'the Russians have information' and that was all." p 53  "Downer also said that he "did not get the sense Papa was the middle-man to coordinate with the Russians" p. 54

According to Diplomat-1 Pap "did not say he had direct contact with the Russians."p54

In Footnote reference to 2019 public interview that Downer said that in talking with Papa there was "no suggestion that there was collusion between Donald Trump or Donald Trump's campaign and the Russians". p53

They described Papa as "insecure" and "trying to impress them".

Australian disclosure prompted by release of Wikileaks of emails from DNC servers on July 22.

". . . there is no question that the FBI had an affirmative obligation to closely examine the Paragraph Five information".  But it was sole basis for opening full investigation.  p54  Done before an discussions or interviews with Australians or Papa.  No attempt to contact other IC agencies. p55

Durham contrasts this speed with "Strzok's decision making in the referral in September 2016 of a matter involving former Congressman Anthony Weiner's laptop computer.  In that instance, according to the OIG, the FBI and Strzok did not act for over a month to pursue legal process to review thousands of missing Clinton emails found on Weiner's laptop."  and it "contrasts with the care taken in connection with the investigation of the Clinton Foundation and other matters." p56

At the time CH opened, "the FBI did not possess any intelligence showing that anyone associated with the Trump campaign was in contact with Russian intelligence officers at any point during the campaign".  Also, later discovered "an early June 2017 USIC report indicated that two persons affiliated with [Russian intelligence services] were aware of Steele's election investigation in early July 2016. . .  Steele's sources may have been compromised by the Russians at a time prior to the creation of the Steele Reports and throughout the FBI's Crossfire Hurricane investigation." p59

NOTE: Simpson & Steele working for two different Kremlin oligarchs.

August 2 - Strzok and another agent meet with Australians.  Engaged FBI's Assistant Legal Attache in London.  According to ATLAT recalled "Strzok making a comment in the taxi on their way to the Australian High Commission to the effect that "there's nothing to this, but we have to run it to ground" p60   ATLAT shared Papa info with British Intelligence who "expressed real skepticism about the motivations and reliability of Papa".  Brits did not views the alleged information "to be particularly valuable intelligence".  British could not believe Papa info was all the US had and they must be holding something back! p60

August 11

ALAT:  Dude, are we telling them [Brits] everything we know, or is there more to this?

SSA-1:  that's all we have

SSA-1: not holding anything back

ALAT:  Damn, that's thin

SSA-1:  I know

SSA-1:  it sucks

p60-1

Brits asked ATLAT "why the FBI did not just go to Papa and ask him what they wanted to know".

Brits finally checked out refusing requests from Mueller.

CH did not ask:

Jonathan Moffa, Chief of FBI's Counterintelligence Analysis Section, and Chief of Russian Analysis Unit.  "he had heard nothing about Trump and Russia until events began to be reported in July 2016" p61

The FBI Intelligence Analyst with the most in-depth knowledge of Russian intelligence never saw anything regarding any Trump election conspiracy with the Russians, nor anything about Page, Papa, Flynn or Manafort involving this p.62

DNI Clapper testified to Congress that "no" when asked if he was aware of evidence.

Austrialian dip 1 told Stzok that information "was written in an intentionally vague way because of what Papa did and did not say". p62 

By the time CH team gets first Steele reports on Sept 19, investigation had been underway for six weeks, incluiding use of CHS but "had not resulted in the collection of any inculpatory information" p66

Things not done:

"Interviewing Page, particularly once the FBI's interest in him was publicly disclosed by the media.  In fact, two days after this disclosure, Page wrote to Director Comey offering to be interviewed, but the FBI elected not to do so." p67  (Disclosed in Yahoo News article on Sept 23) & not interviewing Papa.

FBI Inspection Division Report found intelligence analysits "selected for CH were uniformly inexperienced" and that "none of them were subject matter expert analysts" p68

CH limited by "failure to integrate" Directorate of Intelligence into the investigation as required by policy.  Actively shut down involvement of Directorate in enhanced validation review of Steele. p68


According to NYFO, call made in May 2016 "on behalf of Director Comey" to "cease and desist" from Foundation investigation due to "some undisclosed counterintelligence concern".  Durham unable to find out what the concern was. p80

"while the Department appears to have had legitimate concerns about the Foundation investigation occurring so close to a presidential election, it does not appear that similar concerns were expressed by the Department of FBI regarding the CH investigation". p 80

Feb 24, 2016 email between Strzok and Page, prior to FBI's interview of Clinton

Page:  One more thing: [Clinton] may be our next president.  The last thing you need [is] going in there loaded for bear.  You think she's going to remember of care that it was more doj than fbi?

Strzok:  Agreed  p81

THE CLINTON PLAN

in late July US intelligence agencies "obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against US Presidential candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Putin and the Russian's hacking of the Democratic National Committee.  The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation . . . " p81

Brennan briefed Obama and others on plan to, according to his notes, of Clinton plan to "vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services" p81

Plan supposedly approved on July 26

On Sept 7, 2016 US intelligence officials forward investigative referral to Comey and Strzok regarding Clinton Plan which is described in referral as "a means of distracting the public from her use of a private mail server" p82  Nothing was done by FBI with this referral p86

Relevance to CH

Durham investigates.  Some unclassified reported here.  Other in Classified Appendix including "facts that heightened the potential relevance of this intelligence to the Office's inquiry" p83

Importance recognized immediately.  On July 28 Brennan meets with Obama and others.  On 29th B meets with Comey.

On August 3 meeting with President, VP, AG, Comey and others to discussion Russian interference, including Clinton Plan.

NOTES: Rice letter of January 20, 2017

CH team learned of Clinton Plan by August 22 

Durham found no evidence CH team evaluated Clinton Plan in light of CH investigation p87  Did not disclose in FISA application p87

P88

"The Office showed portions of the Clinton Plan intelligence to a number of individuals who were actively involved in the CH investigation.  Most advised they had never seen the intelligence before, and some expressed surprise and dismay upon learning of it. [ME - Comey suppressed it]  [The original Supervisory Special Agent on CH was shown it during one of his interviews:

"After reading it [he] became visibly upset and emotional, left the interview room with his counsel, and subsequently, returned to state emphatically that had never been apprised of the Clinton Plan intelligence . . . expressed a sense of betrayal that no one had informed him of the intelligence . . . responded firmly that regardless of whether its contents were true, he should have been informed of it."

When former FBI General Counsel Baker was shown it he also said he had never seen or heard of it and that if he had know of it would have viewed Steele Dossier and Alfa Bank stuff from Clinton Lawyer Michael Sussman "in a different and much more skeptical light". p88

On July 27, Clinton foreign policy advisor circulated draft statement for signature on Trump ties to Russia and campaign manager Robby Mook stated potential Russia/Trump connection. p88

". . . evidence gathered by the Office revealed a concerted effort on the part of Fusion GPS in late July 2016 - the same timeframe the Clinton Plan intelligence was purportedly approved - to communicate with the press regarding the Page allegations in the Steele reporting" p92 (including reporters for Slate, Reuters, WSJ, and Jane Mayer of New Yorker (a reliable mouthpiece for whatever Democrats are peddling)

Sidenote:  One of the reporters contacted was Tom Hamburger of WaPo who passed because of "kick back to the idea" and telling him that the allegation that Page met with Sechin and Ivanov, "It's [expletive]. Impossible" - WaPo "Moscow source" p94

Nonetheless this allegation was included in 4 FISA applications.

"The FBI thus failed to act on what should have been - when combined with other, incontrovertible facts - a clear warning sign that the FBI might then be the target of an effort to manipulate or influence the law enforcement process for political purposes during the 2016 presidential election" p97

Notes classification issues would be "insurmountable" if prosecution attempted. p 98

Perkins Coie hires Fusion in April 2016.  "Shortly thereafter" Fusion hires Steele.  Steele reports from July through December.  "According to the reports, important connections between Trump and Russia ran through campaign manager Paul Manafort and foreign policy advisor Carter Page. p98

OIG found 17 material errors or omissions  and "so many basic and fundamental errors" in the Page FISA applications. p99  Found that FBI personnel "did not give appropriate attention facts that cut against probably cause". p100

Several CH investigators were skeptical of the information and as not went on believed Page was not an agent and not a threat to national security but "FBI management" directed renewal. p100  Numerous communication cited about skepticism and concerns from lower level CH team members, doe to "uncorroborated nature of the allegations" and "lack of insight into the reliability of Steele's sub-sources" p101

OI attorney advised that FBI OGC Clinesmith informed him that Comey "want to know what's going on" and McCabe asked "who the FBI needed to speak with at DOJ to 'get this going'" p102  McCae said Comey definitely wanted the FISA.

Oct 12, 2016 note Evans concern that Steele may have been hired by Clinton or the DNC.  His concerns were raised to Comey & McCabe and "they are supportive of moving forward despite his concerns"

NYFO agent who led NYFO investigation of Page was never contacted by CH prior to submission of initial Page warrant application.  Was "never overly concerned about Page being an intelligence officer for the Russians" and had never pursued FISA. p103  She assumed CH had found additional info linking Page to the Russians!  She now viewed Page investigation as "a waste of money".

Day to day members of team never knew Page served as source for CIA.  When one learned he "felt like a fool". p104   When it came time for renewal, they felt Page was not a threat to national security or witting agent for Russians but "assumed" that "somebody above them" possessed information "unknown to the investigators" p104

It was their impression that superiors were "being directed by FBI executive management to continue the FISA surveillance" p105  "It was not the normal course of business to have the 7th floor (FBI executive management) intimately involved in an investigation and very unusual to have an investigation run from FBI Headquarters".

" . . . as of early 2017, the FBI still did not possess any intelligence showing that anyone associated with the Trump campaign was in contact with Russian intelligence officers during the campaign." p 106

FBI documentation shows that reports published by New York Times in February and March 2017 were untrue - sources "four unnamed current and former U.S. intelligence officials" (1) intercepted communications of members of Trump's campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials, (2) Paul Manafort was one of the individuals picked up on the intercepts and (3) intercepts had been captured by NSA. p106

Also that there were meetings in European cities between Russian officials and associates of Trump was false. p107

OBAMA ORDER ON DISTRIBUTING INFORMATION

2018 Incident

- FBI review in 2018 "showed that the Russians had access to sensitive U.S. government informaiton years earlier that would have allowed them to identify Steele's subsources . . . Steele's subsources could have been compromised by the Russians at a point in time prior to the date of the first Steele dossier report". p 107-8  Review team was then told "no more memorandum were to be written". p108  Further meeting in which "the review team was told to be careful about what they were writing down because issues relating to Steele were under intense scrutiny".

Deputy Assistant Director for Counterintelligence Dina Corsi then directed team not to document any recommendations, context, or analysis in the memorandum.  Team members described this as "highly unusual" because analysis is what analysts do.  And OGC Attorney at the briefing "remembered being shocked" by Corsi and that "it was the most inappropriate operational or professional statement he had ever heard at the FBI". p 108  Corsi is still at the FBI

May 2017 Strzok debating whether to join Mueller team, hesitated "in part, because of my gut sense and concern there's no big there there". p109

STEELE

Starting in 2010 Steele provided information to the FBI.  Introduced by DOJ Bruce Ohr, whose wife worked for Fusion GPS.  In 2013 Steele became CHS.  Closed as CHS in Nov 2016 but FBI continued to receive reports via Ohr. (109-110)

Steele gave initial reports to FBI on July 5 (Moscow Ritz Carlton & details on how Kremlin had been feeding info to Trump campaign on his rivals) and informed agent he worked for FusionGPS, Fusion had been hired by a law firm, and his ultimate client was "senior Democrats supporting Clinton" and that Hillary Clinton was aware of his reporting. 110

July 19 - additional report on meeting that Page had that month with Igor Sechin, Chairman of Rosneft, and another with Igor Divyekin, senior official in Russian government, supposedly to discuss lifting of sanctions and Russia's compromising info on Trump and Clinton. p111

Mysterious 75 days between when FBI London gets initial Steele report and when CH team get it on September 19. ". . . the Office has not received a satisfactory explanation that would account for the unwarranted delay." p112

"Despite the lack of any corroboration of the Reports' sensational allegations, however, in short order portions of four of the Reports were included in the initial Carter Page FISA application without any further verification or corroboration . . ." 112

On July 28, NYFO informed London that "FBI leadership, including an FBI Headquarters official at the Executive Assistant Director level, was not aware of the existence of the reports." 113  (Just like Christine Ford Blasey, held in reserve until they needed it)

Inferential evidence that senior NYFO was at FBI HQ, meeting with several senior officials in late July 114.  Senior NYFO told Office that when meeting with senior DC officials they "were already aware of the Steele Reports and that [he] appeared to have engaged in previous conversations with other FBI "higher up" about the reports.  114   Senior NYFO spent July 29 shadowing McCabe.

Finally sent directly by London to CH on September 19.  ". . . the failure of recollection by FBI personnel concerning the matter certainly raises the question of whether the FBI had misgivings from the start about the provenance and reliability of the Steele Reports". p117

October 3 - two FBI DC people meet with Steele in Rome.  Inform Steele "that the FBI might be willing to pay Steele in excess of $1,000,000 if he could provide corroborating evidence of the allegations contained in his reporting".

Steele provided info in that meeting which proved false

(1) One primary subsource was Russia based, who traveled freely in Russia with a well-connected network

(2) Most of the contacts appear to be unwitting of where info was going

(3) Primary subsource had personal contact with Sergei Millian,

(4) Provided names of US citizens who may have info re Trump and Russia (3 unnamed in Durham and Charles Dolan)

(5) Russian Presidential Administration spokesman Dimitry Peskov "was heavily involved in the Russia/Trump operation" (119)

"FBI's assessment of the Yahoo! News article radically changed in order to protect the FISA application" 123 but no FBI employee had any recollection why it changed.

4 Steele Reports were relied upon by FBI to support the application and three renewals 123

". . . not a single substantive allegation pulled from the Steele Reports and used in the initial Page FISA application had been corroborated at the time of the FISA submission - or indeed, to our knowledge, has ever been corroborated by the FBI." 124

1.  Page was part of a "well-developed conspiracy of co-operation" between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

2.  Page met with Igor Sechin and Igor Divyekin in July 2016

3.  The Kremlin had for years gathered compromising information on Clinton

4.  Russia had leaked DNC emails to Wikileaks, an idea concocted by Page and others

Footnote in application described person who hired Steele "never advised [Steele] as to the motivation behind the research into [Trump's] ties to Russia", going on to say "the FBI speculates that the . . . person was likely looking for information that could be used to [discredit] Trump's campaign".  But FBI knew Steele had been hired by Fusion which had been hired by law firm and ultimate client was Clinton campaign and HC was aware of Steele's reporting! 125   NOTE: Rewriting of Steele's contacts and networks in FISA application

SERGEI MILLIAN

NY based real estate broker who from 2006-16 was president of Russian-American Chamber of Commerce.  Had been involved in some minor listings of Trump Organization properties.

Danchenko claimed Source E was Millian.  Though Steele thought Danchenko had met Millian the two never did.  Claim based "entirely on a purported anonymous telephone call Danchenko said he received from someone he had never spoken to before" and that he identified as Millian.  ". . . this completely uncorraborated allegation was included in the Page FISA application, both before and after the FBI learned its provenance from Danchenko himself. 173

Durham found no evidence of such a call. 175 nor does it appear CH ever tried to verify the call.  The whole thing was fabricated.  " . . . the Office found no evidence that Millian was a source for any of the allegations in the Steele Reports." 180

Fusion GPS records show that "Nellie Ohr first identified Millian as having connections to Trump"  On April 22, 2016 Ohr prepared report for Fusion on the connections.  All told Ohr prepared 12 reports discussing Millian.  These reports were provided to CH by Bruce Ohr.  Timing of this and other matters "strongly supports the inference that Fusion GPS directed Steele to pursue Millian". 181  Other Fusion employees worked on research about Millian.  Fusion was promoting Millian to the press as a key intermediary between Trump and Russia.  Fusion research increased substantially in July 2016.  Fusion also tried to tie Millian to the fake Alfa Bank story p183

From 2007 to 2011 Millian was FBI CHS! 185

On January 17, 2019 FBI closed case on Millian noting "the investigation found no confirmation that [Millian] was directed to engage in activities related to Russian Government efforts to interfere with the 2016 U.S. President Election." 185

"Notably, not one of the damning allegations contained in the Steele reporting was ever corroborated: not the salacious allegations of events at the Ritz Carlton in Moscow, not the allegation of there being a 'well-developed conspiracy of co-operation" between Trump and the Russians, not the allegations of a secret meeting involving Page and certain sanctioned Russians (namely, Igor Sechin and Igor Divyekin), and not the allegation of Page serving as Manafort's conduit for information between the Russians and the Trump campaign.  This is true even after the FBI offered Steele $1 million or more for such corroboration and after Danchenko was signed up as an FBI CHS [Confidential Human Source] and paid more than $220,000 for information on other matters" p236

"When [the FBI] checked with another U.S. intelligence agency on matters relating to the Steele reporting, they received no corroborating information back.  As one long-time counterintelligence expert at that agency told [the Durham investigation], the Dossier contained unverified allegations from sub-sources who allegedly provided the information, information that the government could not obtain despite its vast intelligence resources and paying millions of dollars for intelligence.  Indeed, after the Steele Dossier was leaked and became public, that expert's reaction was to ask the FBI, "You didn't use that, right?". 237

 




 


 





 



ever disclosed prior investigation to Dept attorneys.

"It appears the FBI never gave appropriate consideration to the possibility that the intelligence Danchenko was providing to Steele - which, again, according to Danchenko himself, made up a significant majority of the information in the Steele Dossier reports - was, in whole or in part, Russian disinformation." p14

Allegation that Sergei Millian was Source E "The evidence uncovered by the Office showed that Danchenko never spoke with Sergei Millian and simply fabricated the allegations that he attributed to Millian." p16 

Brookings associate introduces Danchenko to Steele in 2010.  Danchenko retained by Steele in 2011. (127)

Initial interview with Danchenko on Jan 24-26, 2017, conducted pursuant to a grant of immunity arranged by his counsel.

In multiple interviews "Danchenko was unable to provide the FBI with corroborating evidence for any of the substantive allegations contained in the Steele report" and said most of the info he provided to Steele was "the product of casual conversations with people in his social circle". (127)

Despite, this in March 2017 he became a CHS - documentation "incorrectly noted that there was no derogatory information associated with Danchenko and that Danchenko had not been a prior subject of an FBI investigation" 133  Paid Danchenko 220K over 3.5 years.  Between all sources D was making about $16,000 a month on average from 2014 to 2021.  Moreover, FBI proposed making further payment of more than $300K in late 2020!   FBI HQ continued to resist efforts to have D closed as source 137  Assistant Director for Counterintelligence at HQ that D "was being paid for information he was providing that corroborated the Steele Dossier reporting"!!! 137  No one Office questioned could describe what D provided for the $.

Finally, in May 2019 FBI Validation Management Unit raised questions about Danchenko including past investigation, and several falsehoods and inconsistencies in his visa applications and immigration documents. 134-135  It was only then that FBI DC reached out to Baltimore - agent "expressed disbelief when she first learned that Danchenko had been signed up as an FBI source because, among other things, the FBI had not resolved the prior counterespionage case" 135

After leaving Brookings, Danchenko worked at a Virginia based-venture capital firm (127) but in 2014 it declared bankruptcy (128).  At the time, the firm was sponsoring Danchenko's visa application to remain in the U.S.  

Danchenko reached out to acquaintance who ran Virginia based IT staffing firm.  Employer said he'd hire and sponsor Danchenko if someone else paid his salary which Steele agreed to do. "Danchenko Employer was merely a front to allow Danchenko to continue his work on behalf of Orbis [Steele's firm], while at the same time allowing him to secure a work visa through alleged employment with a U.S. based company". 128   His employer, an ethnic Russian described Danchenko as "boastful . . . having low credibility, and a person who liked to embellish his purported contacts with the Kremlin". 128

Dachenko was being paid somewhere between 3 and 5K a month.  In addition from January 2016 to June 2021 Danchenko received over $436,000 in wire transfers from European businesses, including Orbis This is in addition to his Orbis salary.  129

"The failure of the FBI to assess properly the prior counterespionage investigation of Danchenko is incomprehensible". 240

 

-------------------------------------

DOLAN

". . . maintained relationships with several key Russian government officials, including Dimitry Peskov p 14 (Press Secretary for Kremlin)

Dolan source of pee tale and "admitted that he fabricated the allegation about Manafort" p15

"The FBI interviewed hundreds of individuals through the course of the Crossfire Hurricane and later investigations, and yet it did not interview Dolan . . ." p15

138-9 ". . .  previously served as (i) Executive Director of the Democratic Governors Association, (ii) Virginia Chairman of former President Clinton's 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, and (iii) an advisor to Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign" 138  President Clinton appointed Dolan to two four-year terms on the State Department's U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. 139

Dolan assisted with PR firm Ketchum;s rep of Russian Federation.  Part of his responsibility was monitoring policy discussions of U.S. based think tanks and reporting back to Russia. 139  Interacted frequently with Russian officials, particularly Dimitry Peskov Press Secretary, and Alex Pavlov, Asst Press Secretary.  In DC he maintained relationships with Sergei Kislyak Ambassador and Mikhail Kalugin, head of economics section, all of whom featured in the Steele Reports. 

Dolan served as advisor to the Valdai Club in Moscow "a Moscow based think tank that is closely associated with Russian President Putin and is viewed by many in the West as a vehicle for Russian propaganda". 142

Dolan recruited in 2015 to help with Moscow conference planned for October 2016 on investment opportunities in Russia.  To be held at Ritz Carlton.  Dolan asked Danchenko to assist.  Dolan visits Moscow in June 2016.  As further prep Dolan attended three meetings at Russian Embassy in 2016 and communicated with Embassy staff including Kislyak and Kalugin. 142

In June 2016 Dolan sent email to US acquaitance describing Danchenko "He is too young for KGB.  But I think he worked for FSB.  Since he told me he spent two years in Iran.  And when I first met him he knew more about me than I did." (winking emoticon) 143  In January 2017 he emailed an acquaitance describing Danchenko as a "Russian agent" p160

Trump did stay at Ritz Carlton in 2013 but not in Presidential Suite then, or ever. 146

How this was created - on August 19, 2016 Kalugin sends email to Dolan and others telling them after six years he is returning to Moscow in September.  September a new Steele report states, "as a prophylactic measure, a leading Russia diplomat, Mikhail Kalugin, had been withdrawn from Washington on short notice because Moscow feared his heavy involvement in the US presidential election operation . . ." 154

In January 2017 Danchenko informed FBI that Olga Galkina was source for several Steele report allegations. 163 and that she had a connection with Dolan.

". . . Dolan was never interviewed, despite the suggestion from both Steele and Galkina that Dolan could have information related to the Steele Reports and the detailed analysis undertaken by two FBI personnel assigned to the Mueller team." p160

In June 2017 FBI interview Danchenko said of Dolan, "Yeah he likes Russia . . . Uh, he's a bit naive in his, um liking of Russia". p162

". . .the FBI found no evidence that Cohen had met with Russian officials in Prague" 158 

When an FBI agent raised interviewing Dolan "with the Mueller Special Counsel team, he was explicitly told not to interview Dolan". 164  Agent said he aggressively pushed Dolan information and believed Andrew Weissman was in at least one of the briefings.

Galkina interviewd in Cyprus in August 2017 and appears forthcoming except when asked about Dolan, 166, but when pressed finally identified him as someone she passed Steele info on to.

In August 2017 two FBI analysts on Mueller team briefed several people, including Jeannie Rhee and drafted a case opening document for Dolan.  167-8  But on September 7 instructed "to cease all research and analysis related to Dolan".  One of the two was transferred same day to another team.

In Sept 2017 they were instructed to "cease work on attempting to corraborate the Steele reports" 169  FBI analyst contemporaneous notes "explicitly state that Mueller investigation leadership directed [them] to dedicate no resources" to Dolan.

Request to open case on Dolan denied and it was a "higher level decision" and case opening was to be deleted from computer system. 170

FBI analysts "discussed whether the decision not to pen on Dolan was politically motivated, given Dolan's extensive connections to the Democratic party" 170 with one of the analysts "speculated that the information on Dolan ran counter to the narrative that the Mueller Special Counsel investigators were cultivating" 171.  Analyst believed this decision would be reviewed by OIG and uploaded memorandum to three separate case files on the FBI system to make sure OIG would have access.

"The FBI interviewed hundreds of individuals through the course of the CH and Mueller Special Counsel investigations, and yet, they did not interview Dolan or the other two U.S. persons identified by Steele [in October 2016]. 172

WAS DOLAN FED INFO BY RUSSIANS BECAUSE OF CONNECTION WITH CLINTON?

----------------------------------------------

Steele working for Oleg Deripaska p151

 

FBI personnel working on that same FISA application displayed, at best, a cavalier attitude towards accuracy and completeness.  FBI personnel also repeatedly disregarded important requirements when they continued to seek renewals of that FISA surveillance while acknowledging - both then and in hindsight - that they did not genuinely believe there was probable cause to believe that the target was knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of a foreign power" p 17-18g

3 requirements for issuing FISA warrant: p31

1.  Probable cause to believe that the target of the surveillance is an agent of a foreign power

2.  For US person - showing that he at least may violate laws 

3.  For US person must be knowingly engaged

---------

NOTES:

Had no support for Steele Dossier allegations.  Briefed President, Biden, Rice on January 5.  On January 6, Comey briefs Trump.  3 days later it is public.  Someone leaked.

Mueller knew dossier was false, denied reviewing it because obstruction issue only made sense if it was still in play.  If acknowledged it was false, Trump's reaction much more understandable and obstruction falls apart.  Pages on Mifsud with no acknowledgements.

Clinesmith treatment by DC Bar.

---------

 Page known to FBI had been interviewed on three occasions between 2009 and 2013 by NYFO.  In 2015 interviewed again by NYFO.  Had been approached by Russian intelligence in failed recruitment effort. p 46

April 2016 NYFO opens counterintelligence investigation, not because of Page, but concern about Russians reaching out to him. p47

FISA application on Page deliberately omitted that he had been approved as operational contact by the CIA. 185  Clinesmith lied and said Page "was never a source"  vive la Resistance"!  FISA application misrepresented statements made by Page to CHS 204

Recordings of Page by CHS failed to find any damaging evidence.  Page said he never met Manafort [accurate].  Page sent Manafort one email and copied him on two others, but never received a response.

Yahoo! News report in late September of Sechin, Divyekin, Page secret meeting.  Two days later Page sends letter to Comey volunteering to speak to anyone in the FBI "in the interest of helping them put these outrageous allegations [about him] to rest". 197  In response, CH investigators were "prohibited by FBI senior executives from approaching Page" until authorization received in March 2017.  Once authorized Page sat for 5 voluntary interviews and "full cooperated with the FBI, even going so far as to bring his own PowerPoint presentation to one of the interviews" 200

On Oct 13, one week before initial Page application submitted two FBI agents:

Special Agent-2:  Yeah [Case agent -1] says no appetite to interview Page either.  thats stupid.

Supervisory Special Agent -1:  yeah-dude I dont know why we are even here.  197

Decisions were "effectively being made by the Director and Deputy Director of the FBI.  In this regard, according to McCabe, "Director Comey was getting daily briefings on this stuff, regularly" and the Director was intimately involved with the team that was working on the case". 199

"clear predisposition on the part of at least certain FBI personnel at the center of Crossfire Hurricane to open an investigation of Trump" p 47-48, citing Strzok, Lisa Page texts :

August 8, 2016

Page: [Trump's] not going to become president, right?  Right?!

Strzok:  No.  No, he's not.  We'll stop it.

Clinesmith - "viva le resistance" Nov 22, 2016

Strzok was going around Preistap to McCabe.

Starting Crossfire Hurricane

Papadopoulos met with Downer on May 6 and 10, 2016 in London with Aussie junior diplomat joined on the 10th by Downer.

Information on meeting provided by Australia to US Embassy in London on July 26 and passed on to FBI the next day.  Info contained May 16 cable from Downer:

He commented that the Clintons had "a lot of baggage" and suggested the Trump team had plenty of material to use in its campaign.  He also suggested the Trump team had received some kind of suggestion from Russia that it could assist this process with the anonymous release of information during the campaign that would be damaging to Mrs Clinton (and President Obama).  It was unclear whether he or the Russians were referring to material acquired publicly of [sic] through other means.  It was also unclear how Mr Trump's team reacted to the offer.  We note the Trump team's reaction could, in the end, have little bearing of [sic] what Russia decides to do, with our without Mr Trump's cooperation. p 52-53

(Another example of the catastrophe of adding Papa to the Board)

No reference to emails in note.

"When interviewed by the Office, Downer stated that he would have characterized the statements made by Papa differently than Australian Diplomat-1 did".   "According to Downer, Papa made no mention of Clinton emails, dirt or any specific approach by the Russian government to the Trump campaign team with an offer or suggestion of providing assistance.  Rather, Downer's recollection was that Papa simply stated 'the Russians have information' and that was all." p 53  "Downer also said that he "did not get the sense Papa was the middle-man to coordinate with the Russians" p. 54

According to Diplomat-1 Pap "did not say he had direct contact with the Russians."p54

In Footnote reference to 2019 public interview that Downer said that in talking with Papa there was "no suggestion that there was collusion between Donald Trump or Donald Trump's campaign and the Russians". p53

They described Papa as "insecure" and "trying to impress them".

Australian disclosure prompted by release of Wikileaks of emails from DNC servers on July 22.

". . . there is no question that the FBI had an affirmative obligation to closely examine the Paragraph Five information".  But it was sole basis for opening full investigation.  p54  Done before an discussions or interviews with Australians or Papa.  No attempt to contact other IC agencies. p55

Durham contrasts this speed with "Strzok's decision making in the referral in September 2016 of a matter involving former Congressman Anthony Weiner's laptop computer.  In that instance, according to the OIG, the FBI and Strzok did not act for over a month to pursue legal process to review thousands of missing Clinton emails found on Weiner's laptop."  and it "contrasts with the care taken in connection with the investigation of the Clinton Foundation and other matters." p56

At the time CH opened, "the FBI did not possess any intelligence showing that anyone associated with the Trump campaign was in contact with Russian intelligence officers at any point during the campaign".  Also, later discovered "an early June 2017 USIC report indicated that two persons affiliated with [Russian intelligence services] were aware of Steele's election investigation in early July 2016. . .  Steele's sources may have been compromised by the Russians at a time prior to the creation of the Steele Reports and throughout the FBI's Crossfire Hurricane investigation." p59

NOTE: Simpson & Steele working for two different Kremlin oligarchs.

August 2 - Strzok and another agent meet with Australians.  Engaged FBI's Assistant Legal Attache in London.  According to ATLAT recalled "Strzok making a comment in the taxi on their way to the Australian High Commission to the effect that "there's nothing to this, but we have to run it to ground" p60   ATLAT shared Papa info with British Intelligence who "expressed real skepticism about the motivations and reliability of Papa".  Brits did not views the alleged information "to be particularly valuable intelligence".  British could not believe Papa info was all the US had and they must be holding something back! p60

August 11

ALAT:  Dude, are we telling them [Brits] everything we know, or is there more to this?

SSA-1:  that's all we have

SSA-1: not holding anything back

ALAT:  Damn, that's thin

SSA-1:  I know

SSA-1:  it sucks

p60-1

Brits asked ATLAT "why the FBI did not just go to Papa and ask him what they wanted to know".

Brits finally checked out refusing requests from Mueller.

CH did not ask:

Jonathan Moffa, Chief of FBI's Counterintelligence Analysis Section, and Chief of Russian Analysis Unit.  "he had heard nothing about Trump and Russia until events began to be reported in July 2016" p61

The FBI Intelligence Analyst with the most in-depth knowledge of Russian intelligence never saw anything regarding any Trump election conspiracy with the Russians, nor anything about Page, Papa, Flynn or Manafort involving this p.62

DNI Clapper testified to Congress that "no" when asked if he was aware of evidence.

Austrialian dip 1 told Stzok that information "was written in an intentionally vague way because of what Papa did and did not say". p62 

By the time CH team gets first Steele reports on Sept 19, investigation had been underway for six weeks, incluiding use of CHS but "had not resulted in the collection of any inculpatory information" p66

Things not done:

"Interviewing Page, particularly once the FBI's interest in him was publicly disclosed by the media.  In fact, two days after this disclosure, Page wrote to Director Comey offering to be interviewed, but the FBI elected not to do so." p67  (Disclosed in Yahoo News article on Sept 23) & not interviewing Papa.

FBI Inspection Division Report found intelligence analysits "selected for CH were uniformly inexperienced" and that "none of them were subject matter expert analysts" p68

CH limited by "failure to integrate" Directorate of Intelligence into the investigation as required by policy.  Actively shut down involvement of Directorate in enhanced validation review of Steele. p68


According to NYFO, call made in May 2016 "on behalf of Director Comey" to "cease and desist" from Foundation investigation due to "some undisclosed counterintelligence concern".  Durham unable to find out what the concern was. p80

"while the Department appears to have had legitimate concerns about the Foundation investigation occurring so close to a presidential election, it does not appear that similar concerns were expressed by the Department of FBI regarding the CH investigation". p 80

Feb 24, 2016 email between Strzok and Page, prior to FBI's interview of Clinton

Page:  One more thing: [Clinton] may be our next president.  The last thing you need [is] going in there loaded for bear.  You think she's going to remember of care that it was more doj than fbi?

Strzok:  Agreed  p81

THE CLINTON PLAN

in late July US intelligence agencies "obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against US Presidential candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Putin and the Russian's hacking of the Democratic National Committee.  The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation . . . " p81

Brennan briefed Obama and others on plan to, according to his notes, of Clinton plan to "vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services" p81

Plan supposedly approved on July 26

On Sept 7, 2016 US intelligence officials forward investigative referral to Comey and Strzok regarding Clinton Plan which is described in referral as "a means of distracting the public from her use of a private mail server" p82  Nothing was done by FBI with this referral p86

Relevance to CH

Durham investigates.  Some unclassified reported here.  Other in Classified Appendix including "facts that heightened the potential relevance of this intelligence to the Office's inquiry" p83

Importance recognized immediately.  On July 28 Brennan meets with Obama and others.  On 29th B meets with Comey.

On August 3 meeting with President, VP, AG, Comey and others to discussion Russian interference, including Clinton Plan.

NOTES: Rice letter of January 20, 2017

CH team learned of Clinton Plan by August 22 

Durham found no evidence CH team evaluated Clinton Plan in light of CH investigation p87  Did not disclose in FISA application p87

P88

"The Office showed portions of the Clinton Plan intelligence to a number of individuals who were actively involved in the CH investigation.  Most advised they had never seen the intelligence before, and some expressed surprise and dismay upon learning of it. [ME - Comey suppressed it]  [The original Supervisory Special Agent on CH was shown it during one of his interviews:

"After reading it [he] became visibly upset and emotional, left the interview room with his counsel, and subsequently, returned to state emphatically that had never been apprised of the Clinton Plan intelligence . . . expressed a sense of betrayal that no one had informed him of the intelligence . . . responded firmly that regardless of whether its contents were true, he should have been informed of it."

When former FBI General Counsel Baker was shown it he also said he had never seen or heard of it and that if he had know of it would have viewed Steele Dossier and Alfa Bank stuff from Clinton Lawyer Michael Sussman "in a different and much more skeptical light". p88

On July 27, Clinton foreign policy advisor circulated draft statement for signature on Trump ties to Russia and campaign manager Robby Mook stated potential Russia/Trump connection. p88

". . . evidence gathered by the Office revealed a concerted effort on the part of Fusion GPS in late July 2016 - the same timeframe the Clinton Plan intelligence was purportedly approved - to communicate with the press regarding the Page allegations in the Steele reporting" p92 (including reporters for Slate, Reuters, WSJ, and Jane Mayer of New Yorker (a reliable mouthpiece for whatever Democrats are peddling)

Sidenote:  One of the reporters contacted was Tom Hamburger of WaPo who passed because of "kick back to the idea" and telling him that the allegation that Page met with Sechin and Ivanov, "It's [expletive]. Impossible" - WaPo "Moscow source" p94

Nonetheless this allegation was included in 4 FISA applications.

"The FBI thus failed to act on what should have been - when combined with other, incontrovertible facts - a clear warning sign that the FBI might then be the target of an effort to manipulate or influence the law enforcement process for political purposes during the 2016 presidential election" p97

Notes classification issues would be "insurmountable" if prosecution attempted. p 98

Perkins Coie hires Fusion in April 2016.  "Shortly thereafter" Fusion hires Steele.  Steele reports from July through December.  "According to the reports, important connections between Trump and Russia ran through campaign manager Paul Manafort and foreign policy advisor Carter Page. p98

OIG found 17 material errors or omissions  and "so many basic and fundamental errors" in the Page FISA applications. p99  Found that FBI personnel "did not give appropriate attention facts that cut against probably cause". p100

Several CH investigators were skeptical of the information and as not went on believed Page was not an agent and not a threat to national security but "FBI management" directed renewal. p100  Numerous communication cited about skepticism and concerns from lower level CH team members, doe to "uncorroborated nature of the allegations" and "lack of insight into the reliability of Steele's sub-sources" p101

OI attorney advised that FBI OGC Clinesmith informed him that Comey "want to know what's going on" and McCabe asked "who the FBI needed to speak with at DOJ to 'get this going'" p102  McCae said Comey definitely wanted the FISA.

Oct 12, 2016 note Evans concern that Steele may have been hired by Clinton or the DNC.  His concerns were raised to Comey & McCabe and "they are supportive of moving forward despite his concerns"

NYFO agent who led NYFO investigation of Page was never contacted by CH prior to submission of initial Page warrant application.  Was "never overly concerned about Page being an intelligence officer for the Russians" and had never pursued FISA. p103  She assumed CH had found additional info linking Page to the Russians!  She now viewed Page investigation as "a waste of money".

Day to day members of team never knew Page served as source for CIA.  When one learned he "felt like a fool". p104   When it came time for renewal, they felt Page was not a threat to national security or witting agent for Russians but "assumed" that "somebody above them" possessed information "unknown to the investigators" p104

It was their impression that superiors were "being directed by FBI executive management to continue the FISA surveillance" p105  "It was not the normal course of business to have the 7th floor (FBI executive management) intimately involved in an investigation and very unusual to have an investigation run from FBI Headquarters".

" . . . as of early 2017, the FBI still did not possess any intelligence showing that anyone associated with the Trump campaign was in contact with Russian intelligence officers during the campaign." p 106

FBI documentation shows that reports published by New York Times in February and March 2017 were untrue - sources "four unnamed current and former U.S. intelligence officials" (1) intercepted communications of members of Trump's campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials, (2) Paul Manafort was one of the individuals picked up on the intercepts and (3) intercepts had been captured by NSA. p106

Also that there were meetings in European cities between Russian officials and associates of Trump was false. p107

OBAMA ORDER ON DISTRIBUTING INFORMATION

2018 Incident

- FBI review in 2018 "showed that the Russians had access to sensitive U.S. government informaiton years earlier that would have allowed them to identify Steele's subsources . . . Steele's subsources could have been compromised by the Russians at a point in time prior to the date of the first Steele dossier report". p 107-8  Review team was then told "no more memorandum were to be written". p108  Further meeting in which "the review team was told to be careful about what they were writing down because issues relating to Steele were under intense scrutiny".

Deputy Assistant Director for Counterintelligence Dina Corsi then directed team not to document any recommendations, context, or analysis in the memorandum.  Team members described this as "highly unusual" because analysis is what analysts do.  And OGC Attorney at the briefing "remembered being shocked" by Corsi and that "it was the most inappropriate operational or professional statement he had ever heard at the FBI". p 108  Corsi is still at the FBI

May 2017 Strzok debating whether to join Mueller team, hesitated "in part, because of my gut sense and concern there's no big there there". p109

STEELE

Starting in 2010 Steele provided information to the FBI.  Introduced by DOJ Bruce Ohr, whose wife worked for Fusion GPS.  In 2013 Steele became CHS.  Closed as CHS in Nov 2016 but FBI continued to receive reports via Ohr. (109-110)

Steele gave initial reports to FBI on July 5 (Moscow Ritz Carlton & details on how Kremlin had been feeding info to Trump campaign on his rivals) and informed agent he worked for FusionGPS, Fusion had been hired by a law firm, and his ultimate client was "senior Democrats supporting Clinton" and that Hillary Clinton was aware of his reporting. 110

July 19 - additional report on meeting that Page had that month with Igor Sechin, Chairman of Rosneft, and another with Igor Divyekin, senior official in Russian government, supposedly to discuss lifting of sanctions and Russia's compromising info on Trump and Clinton. p111

Mysterious 75 days between when FBI London gets initial Steele report and when CH team get it on September 19. ". . . the Office has not received a satisfactory explanation that would account for the unwarranted delay." p112

"Despite the lack of any corroboration of the Reports' sensational allegations, however, in short order portions of four of the Reports were included in the initial Carter Page FISA application without any further verification or corroboration . . ." 112

On July 28, NYFO informed London that "FBI leadership, including an FBI Headquarters official at the Executive Assistant Director level, was not aware of the existence of the reports." 113  (Just like Christine Ford Blasey, held in reserve until they needed it)

Inferential evidence that senior NYFO was at FBI HQ, meeting with several senior officials in late July 114.  Senior NYFO told Office that when meeting with senior DC officials they "were already aware of the Steele Reports and that [he] appeared to have engaged in previous conversations with other FBI "higher up" about the reports.  114   Senior NYFO spent July 29 shadowing McCabe.

Finally sent directly by London to CH on September 19.  ". . . the failure of recollection by FBI personnel concerning the matter certainly raises the question of whether the FBI had misgivings from the start about the provenance and reliability of the Steele Reports". p117

October 3 - two FBI DC people meet with Steele in Rome.  Inform Steele "that the FBI might be willing to pay Steele in excess of $1,000,000 if he could provide corroborating evidence of the allegations contained in his reporting".

Steele provided info in that meeting which proved false

(1) One primary subsource was Russia based, who traveled freely in Russia with a well-connected network

(2) Most of the contacts appear to be unwitting of where info was going

(3) Primary subsource had personal contact with Sergei Millian,

(4) Provided names of US citizens who may have info re Trump and Russia (3 unnamed in Durham and Charles Dolan)

(5) Russian Presidential Administration spokesman Dimitry Peskov "was heavily involved in the Russia/Trump operation" (119)

"FBI's assessment of the Yahoo! News article radically changed in order to protect the FISA application" 123 but no FBI employee had any recollection why it changed.

4 Steele Reports were relied upon by FBI to support the application and three renewals 123

". . . not a single substantive allegation pulled from the Steele Reports and used in the initial Page FISA application had been corroborated at the time of the FISA submission - or indeed, to our knowledge, has ever been corroborated by the FBI." 124

1.  Page was part of a "well-developed conspiracy of co-operation" between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

2.  Page met with Igor Sechin and Igor Divyekin in July 2016

3.  The Kremlin had for years gathered compromising information on Clinton

4.  Russia had leaked DNC emails to Wikileaks, an idea concocted by Page and others

Footnote in application described person who hired Steele "never advised [Steele] as to the motivation behind the research into [Trump's] ties to Russia", going on to say "the FBI speculates that the . . . person was likely looking for information that could be used to [discredit] Trump's campaign".  But FBI knew Steele had been hired by Fusion which had been hired by law firm and ultimate client was Clinton campaign and HC was aware of Steele's reporting! 125   NOTE: Rewriting of Steele's contacts and networks in FISA application

SERGEI MILLIAN

NY based real estate broker who from 2006-16 was president of Russian-American Chamber of Commerce.  Had been involved in some minor listings of Trump Organization properties.

Danchenko claimed Source E was Millian.  Though Steele thought Danchenko had met Millian the two never did.  Claim based "entirely on a purported anonymous telephone call Danchenko said he received from someone he had never spoken to before" and that he identified as Millian.  ". . . this completely uncorraborated allegation was included in the Page FISA application, both before and after the FBI learned its provenance from Danchenko himself. 173

Durham found no evidence of such a call. 175 nor does it appear CH ever tried to verify the call.  The whole thing was fabricated.  " . . . the Office found no evidence that Millian was a source for any of the allegations in the Steele Reports." 180

Fusion GPS records show that "Nellie Ohr first identified Millian as having connections to Trump"  On April 22, 2016 Ohr prepared report for Fusion on the connections.  All told Ohr prepared 12 reports discussing Millian.  These reports were provided to CH by Bruce Ohr.  Timing of this and other matters "strongly supports the inference that Fusion GPS directed Steele to pursue Millian". 181  Other Fusion employees worked on research about Millian.  Fusion was promoting Millian to the press as a key intermediary between Trump and Russia.  Fusion research increased substantially in July 2016.  Fusion also tried to tie Millian to the fake Alfa Bank story p183

From 2007 to 2011 Millian was FBI CHS! 185

On January 17, 2019 FBI closed case on Millian noting "the investigation found no confirmation that [Millian] was directed to engage in activities related to Russian Government efforts to interfere with the 2016 U.S. President Election." 185

"Notably, not one of the damning allegations contained in the Steele reporting was ever corroborated: not the salacious allegations of events at the Ritz Carlton in Moscow, not the allegation of there being a 'well-developed conspiracy of co-operation" between Trump and the Russians, not the allegations of a secret meeting involving Page and certain sanctioned Russians (namely, Igor Sechin and Igor Divyekin), and not the allegation of Page serving as Manafort's conduit for information between the Russians and the Trump campaign.  This is true even after the FBI offered Steele $1 million or more for such corroboration and after Danchenko was signed up as an FBI CHS [Confidential Human Source] and paid more than $220,000 for information on other matters" p236

"When [the FBI] checked with another U.S. intelligence agency on matters relating to the Steele reporting, they received no corroborating information back.  As one long-time counterintelligence expert at that agency told [the Durham investigation], the Dossier contained unverified allegations from sub-sources who allegedly provided the information, information that the government could not obtain despite its vast intelligence resources and paying millions of dollars for intelligence.  Indeed, after the Steele Dossier was leaked and became public, that expert's reaction was to ask the FBI, "You didn't use that, right?". 237

 




 


 





 




Tuesday, October 8, 2024

El Tiante

Image

(Enjoying a victory cigar in the whirlpool after the game)

Back in the 70s, I used to imitate his pitching motion.  After bringing the ball down from your chest to your waist in herky jerky fashion, you twisted your body around, back to the batter, looked up at the sky, and then turned back around and threw a strike.  At least Luis did.  I never could.

Luis Tiant passed today at 83.  Written about him a few times; here's one - pitching against Mark Fidrych.

A joy to watch.  Near the end of his time with the Red Sox, I went to Fenway solo and got a ticket a few rows behind home, enabling me to closely observe Tiant.  By that time, he'd lost the blazing fastball, but I was surprised at how slow his fastball had become.  He was still able to fool the batters using different pitching motions and changing speeds.  I was watching a masterclass in the art of pitching.

One of the most beloved players in the history of the franchise.  He should be in the Hall of Fame.


Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Heroes

The Ukulele Orchestra of Great Britain's trademark is well done and humorous covers of pop and rock songs.  In this case, they do a serious, straight, and very well done cover of David Bowie's Heroes, that captures well the song's sentiment. Bowie wrote the song in the late 1970s while in West Berlin.  The last verse refers to a moment when he observed a couple kissing by the Wall.


I, I can remember (I remember)
Standing by the wall (By the wall)
And the guns shot above our heads (Over our heads)
And we kissed as though nothing could fall (Nothing could fall)

And the shame was on the other side
Oh, we can beat them forever and ever
Then we could be heroes just for one day

Monday, September 30, 2024

Goodbye Marvin Dorfler

John Ashton, best known for his appearance as Taggert, the Beverly Hills cop in the movies of the same name, passed yesterday.  He was great in those films but my favorite Ashton role is as dim-witted bounty hunter Marvin Dorfler in Midnight Run.  Terrific and funny movie with many memorable lines, with an incredible cast, Robert DeNiro and Charles Grodin as the imperfectly perfectly matched pair, Yaphet Kotto, Dennis Farina, and Joe Pantoliano.  Doing a press tour for the recently released Beverly Hills Cop, Ashton tells as funny story of how he got the role in Midnight Run (starting around 1:45).  And here is a prior THC post on the film.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

What's Next?

While many in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and elsewhere around the world celebrate the death of Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the New York Times mourns his demise, describing the murderous fanatic as a gentle and tolerant religious sage "who maintained that there should be one Palestine with equality for Muslims, Jews, and Christians".  The Times assures us that as a Shiite, he represented a "historically marginalized group", so he was a Good Guy since he was Oppressed.  It's all about the narrative among those who hate the West. You will never see a non-Progressive coded American treated so reverently in a Times obituary.

What next for Israel, for Hezbollah, for Iran?  Hezbollah had always been Iran's ace in the hole against Israel.  The potential Israeli threat against Iran's nuclear program - a reasonable threat given Iran's policy goals of Death to Israel! and Death to the Jews! - was checked by possible retaliation from Hezbollah's huge rocket arsenal.

In 2000, Israel ended its occupation of south Lebanon without any preconditions, abruptly withdrawing its forces.  Hezbollah filled the vacuum, building its power base in the region, right on Israel's northern border.  In response to Hezbollah attacks, Israel reentered Lebanon in 2006, fighting a tough war in which it won a tactical victory but proved a strategic loss, because it was fought as a conventional war on Hezbollah's terms.  A UN Resolution promised that the area of Lebanon south of the Litani River would be demilitarized but, in reality, it was never enforced with the UN Peacekeeping Force serving as a shield while Hezbollah rebuilt its military capabilities.  After October 7, Hezbollah banked on being able to demonstrate solidarity with Hamas, launching several thousand rockets, forcing the evacuation of almost 100,000 Israelis from their home, believing itself at minimal risk of massive Israeli retaliation.

This time around Israel pursued a different strategy, focused on dismantling key Hezbollah capabilities and taking out the organization's leadership and middle management, as well as creating an atmosphere of mental insecurity for the survivors, rather than taking on its opponents in a ground war.  It's been impressive watching that strategy implemented.  Earlier this summer, the Israelis took out a good percentage of Hezbollah's rocket launching capabilities.  More recently we have the pager and cellphone exploits, and an increased pace of assassination of leadership, culminating in Nasrallah's death. 

What has also become evident is the extent of Israeli intelligence assets in Lebanon, compared to Gaza.  A lot of people in Lebanon, while they may not be pro-Israel, really hate Hezbollah, because that group has reduced the nation and its people to puppets.

In the past couple of days, it has been reported that Israel has turned back flights from Iran to Beirut carrying replacement equipment for Hezbollah, a demonstration of Israeli intent not to allow Hezbollah to rebuild.  The next question is whether Israel will take advantage of Hezbollah's current state to temporarily reoccupy south Lebanon and use the time to systematically destroy Hezbollah's complex infrastructure in the region.  If Hezbollah cannot rebuild, and other forces in Lebanon reassert themselves, it means Iran's shield is gone.

The recent events also highlight the impotence of Biden administration policy and the amateur hour performance of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.(1)  President Biden delusionally believed freeing up tens of billions to fund Iran woud somehow have a positive impact from our perspective, instead of enabling its support of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Putin regime.  Blinken is the quintessential model-UN kid, living in a dream world, with the shallow credentials of expertise so common to those in the foreign policy "establishment".  His negotiations strategy regarding Hamas and Gaza is embarrassing.

Hamas:  We want 100.

Blinken:  We'll give you 95.

Hamas:  No, and now we want 105.

Blinken: We'll give you 100.

Hamas:  No, and now we want 110.

Blinken:  We'll give you 105.

When you sell your house, Blinken is the guy you want negotiating on behalf of the buyer. 

Sullivan appears to think that the Israelis are the bad guys because of Netanyahu.  I don't like Netanyahu and wish he were not in office, but after all these years it should be clear that no matter who headed Israel's government, Hamas and Hezbollah would be pursuing the same course.  Maybe we shouldn't be surprised that Sullivan appointed as National Security Council lead on intelligence matters a guy who headed the antisemitic Students for Justice in Palestine group at Georgetown.

And, don't forget, this is the team that gave a wink-wink to Putin if he was restrained enough to just "wet his beak" by taking the rest of the Donbas, giving a thumbs-up to Nordstream 2 and the INF treaty to show their good faith, and, when that didn't work, put restraints on Ukraine's response, allowing Putin an asymmetrical advantage in the use of weapons. Don't try to make sense of their policy, since they can't.

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 (1) Sullivan and Blinken also played important roles in the Russia collusion hoax.  In 2016, Sullivan, then with the Clinton campaign, was one of the lead promoters of the Alfa Bank allegation, the conspiracy theory that the Trump campaign had a secret server connected with Alfa Bank that supposedly allowed the Kremlin to communicate with the campaign.  Like the rest of the allegations it was misinformation.

In 2020, Blinken, working for the Biden campaign, organized the infamous letter by 51 former intelligence officials denouncing the Hunter Biden laptop story as a Russian disinformation operation.  It wasn't, and they knew it.

Sullivan and Blinken's roles in spreading misinformation in an effort to influence presidential elections contributed significantly to the erosion of trust in our institutions, leading to the current instability in our public processes, and posing a danger to the continuation of our democracy.  They have no business being in leadership roles in our country.  They should be outcasts, shamed for their behavior.