Sunday, May 10, 2026

8.5

I've posted before about Roger Pielke Jr, climate change, the controversy over RCP 8.5, and my personal experience running a corporate greenhouse gas reduction program (see Changing Climate).

To recap, RCP 8.5 was a climate scenario developed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) two decades ago.  The IPCC developed a set of scenarios and 8.5 posited the highest future emissions which, in turn, led to predictions of the highest increase in global temperatures. Almost from its inception it was criticized as being an unrealistic projection of global CO2 emission over the remainder of the 21st century.  Over the next two decades scenarios by the IPCC and other researchers focused disproportionately on RCP 8.5 leading to report after report showing significant increases in temperature due to human activities.  Many of those funding studies on climate change required researchers, as a condition of grants, to use the 8.5 scenario.  In recent year, thousands of studies have been published using 8.5, which are then seized upon by NGOs and the media to create a narrative.

The problem was that actual emissions were not trending as predicted by 8.5., nor was global temperature.  For many years the critics were ignored and attacked personally as "deniers", including Pielke.

Now the IPCC has announced that RCP 8.5 will not be used any longer and lower emissions scenarios substituted.  It is a good step but the process of getting to it is damning for the scientific community.

Pielke is a political liberal who agrees that emissions by humans are contributing to warming but he is also rigorous about examining evidence and calling out errors.  As climate "science" diverged more and more from reality in recent years he has become more adamant about calling out those who distort science in the name of advocacy and the atmosphere of enforced conformity within the climate community and much of the media.

In a recent post at his substack, The Honest Broker, Pielke calls the IPCC action "the most significant development in climate research in decades".   While the IPCC explains its change on the basis that "high emissions levels [of 8.5] have become implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends", Pielke and others, have for years, convincingly argued the 8.5 scenario was implausible from its inception.

In a more recent post, Pielke notes that the important change by the IPCC has been ignored by the English language media outlets most vested in creating the catastrophic climate change narrative like the New York Times, BBC, Science, and Nature. 

I highly recommend subscribing to Roger's substack.  While not agreeing with him on every policy issue, he has integrity, provides solid analysis, and goes where the evidence leads. 

Other recent Pielke posts include:

The Price of Partisan Advocacy by Scientific Institutions

The World's Most Important Science Advisory Committee

The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics

More Problems With the Federal Judicial Center Science Manual for Federal Judges 

Friday, May 8, 2026

Remembrance

Today is Remembrance Day in France.  On May 8, 1945 the Second World War in Europe ended.  As we drove though the countryside today, we passed commemorations being held in several village centers, mostly attended by older folks.

In Domme, where we are staying for a month, the memorial to the war dead was decorated with flags and flowers.  The WW2 side of the memorial has many fewer names than the WW1 side.  It's not the only difference.  The WWI dead were all in the French army when they perished, but the WW2 side shows seven dead in combat, six dead deportees, and six civilians shot by the Germans in local actions.  The latter were members of the Resistance or civilians killed in the summer of 1944.  Partially obscured in the lower right is a later addition marking the death of a resident at the Mauthausen concentration camp.

Yesterday, Mrs THC and I drove two hours north to Oradour-sur-Glane, a somber and disturbing visit.

On Saturday morning June 10, 1944, Oradour was crowded.  Though the commune had a population of about 1,400, the central village contained only 330, but on that morning almost 700 were in the village.  It was a school day so children from outlying farms were there as well as farmers who came into town to get their monthly tobacco allowance.  A half-dozen cyclists were also passing through the village.

Oradour was a prosperous community, in a green setting near the river Glace, only a few miles from the large city of Limoges.  Before the war it was a popular place for Limoges residents to take the tram line to Oradour and picnic by the stream.

In early afternoon about 200 soldiers from the SS 2nd Panzer (Das Reich) Division arrived, sealed off the town, and ordered everyone present to assemble in a field behind the village.  Some 20 to 30 inhabitants realized something was wrong and escaped into the woods but more than 650 people were left in the field.  The Germans separated the 195 men from the 453 women and children, with the latter moved into the small village church.

The men, including the cyclists, were further separated into five groups, taken to buildings and close by farms, shot, and the men and the buildings set afire.  Five men, all wounded, managed to survive.

The Germans set off an incendiary device within the church, which filled with smoke.  As women and children tried to escape they were fired upon by machine guns.  It was death by gunfire, smoke, and flame.  Only one women survived; with both her daughters dead she plunged out a window.  Shot five times she managed to crawl into nearby woods where she was found two days later. Marguerite Rouffanche would spend a year in hospital recovering physically.  She would pass in 1988.  The last survivor, Robert Hebras, died in 2023.  Hebras, then 18, was slightly wounded in the head, chest, and thigh and survived by remaining under a pile of bodies in one of the barns.  His mother and two sisters were killed in the church. After the war Hebras became an advocate for reconciliation between French and Germans.

After the killing spree every building in the village was set afire.

By order of Charles de Gaulle, Oradour was never demolished or rebuilt.  It was left as it was on the evening of June 10, as a permanent memorial to the martyrs.  A new Oradour was built several hundred yards away.

Most of the German officers involved were killed before the war ended.

Below are several photos I took of our visit.  We went into the small church but I felt so overwhelmed thinking about the 246 women and 207 children crammed inside and of the havoc and terror unleashed upon them, I could not take any photos.  Oradour is more than ruined buildings, as you walk around you see sewing machines and cooking pots sitting as they were in 1944.  On the floor of the church are the remains of a baby carriage. We did not see everything in the village.  I'd watched videos, seen photos, and read about Oradour, but the experience of actually walking the streets was much more powerful and after a while we decided we needed to leave. 







This is an aerial view of the village:

 

The classic early 1970s 26-part BBC series, The World At War, opened with photos of Oradour and this narration by Laurence Olivier:

Down this road on a summer day in 1944, the soldiers came. Nobody lives here now. They stayed only a few hours. When they had gone, the community, which had lived for a thousand years, was dead. This is Oradour-sur-Glane, in France. The day the soldiers came, the people were gathered together. The men were taken to garages and barns, the women and children were led down this road, and they were driven into this church. Here, they heard the firing as their men were shot. Then they were killed too. A few weeks later, many of those who had done the killing were themselves dead, in battle. They never rebuilt Oradour. Its ruins are a memorial. Its martyrdom stands for thousands upon thousands of other martyrdoms in Poland, in Russia, in Burma, China, in a world at war.

This is video explains in more detail what happened that day.  It tells why the Das Reich Division was in the area and its movement north from the area around Toulouse.  The German columns had to pass through the Dordogne, a stronghold of Resistance fighters determined to slow down the Nazi move towards the Allied landings in Normandy.  Two of the towns mentioned where fighting occurred, Groljeac and Carsac, are next to Domme.

Both Germans and French were aware that sometime in the summer of 1944 the Allied invasion would occur.  In May, German forces stationed around the area began sweeps against the various Resistance groups and these continued into August.  Violence escalated with news of the Normandy landings on June 6, when partisans came out of hiding and attacked German formations moving north through the area as they attempted to reach the Allied landing areas.

The list of encounters is long and bloody; here are a few.  

On May 21 in the little village of Frayssinet-Le-Gelat, twenty miles south of Domme, the Germans, in retaliation for the death of an SS officer, killed 15 hostages; ten young men from one-child families and five young women. 

With word of the Allied landings, Das Reich began moving north through Dordogne and the Limoges area while the lightly armed partisans made efforts to block the narrow roads.  Fighting took place in many locations, as well as German reprisals.  On June 8, at Grolejac, seven Resistance fighters were killed, while another four died in Carsac, across the river from Grolejac.

That same day another Das Reich column stopped at a bakery in the village of Rouffillac (10 miles from Domme) and demanded the proprietress make them crepes.  When she refused, she and 15 other civilians were locked in the bakery which the Nazis then burned down.  

Fighting also occurred that day in Cressensac, Noailles, Gabaudet, and in other towns and villages.

On June 7, upon receiving news of the Allied landings, partisans attacked and overwhelmed a small German garrison in Tulle, a town about 60 miles from Domme.  Two days later, Das Reich arrived and retook the town.  In those battles 37 Germans were killed along with 50 to 100 French fighters.  In retaliation, the Germans arrested all men between the ages of 16 and 60, hanged 99 of them, and deported another 149, of whom 101 died at Dachau.

Fifty four (52 hostages and 2 fighters) were executed at Mussidan on June 11.

On June 12 the Germans shot twelve hostages, including the entire Frydman family. 

On June 21 the village of Moutyedier was attacked and burned to the ground; 65 civilians and Resistance fighters were killed.

More fighting occurred in Cenac and Domme on June 26-27.  This was part of a larger wave that included the neighboring towns and villages of Sarlat, La Roque Gageac, Castlenaud, Vitrac, and Vezac where the SS murdered 93 year old Raymond Lespinasse.

Less than three miles from where we are staying is a plaque in memory of Marie Delteil, aged 80, who "fell victim to Nazi barbarism" on June 26.

Another plaque, on the bridge across the Dordogne at Cenac, just down the hill from Domme, is in memory of Louis Desplat "killed here by the German hordes", also on June 26.  A clock-maker and  member of the resistance, Desplat was captured and tortured by the Germans, but would not talk.  He was taken to the bridge, shot, and his body dumped into the river. 

Memorial to Marie Delteil

Memorial to 12 members of the Resistance, including one unknown victim, executed on June 26.  This is on the road up to Domme.  The two Marx brothers were refugees from elsewhere in France.

 

Memorial affixed to the wall of the former hospital in Domme.  Jose Duerto Mendoza was a Spaniard who fled to France after Franco's victory in the Spanish Civil War and then joined the French Resistance, as did two of those named on the plaque above.  Mendoza was wounded in the action on the 26th, made it to the Domme hospital, was found there the next day by the Germans who shot him.

 

On June 30, twelve hostages taken at Domme and Cougnac on June 26-28 were executed by the side of the road to Gourdon. 

The mayor of St-AndrĂ©-d'Appelles was executed on July 7 for having placed a tricolor flag on the remains of a resister. 

Fighting in the region continued into August.  It was only with Operation Dragoon, the Allied landing in the south of France on August 15 and their rapid advance, that German troops withdrew from southwestern France, ending the occupation.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Willie In The Neighborhood

 

It's 95 years since Willie Mays was born in Alabama on May 6, 1931. Willie, who passed at 93, began his major league career with the Giants when they were in New York.  After the 1957 season, the Giants relocated to San Francisco and Willie and his wife, Marghuerite went house hunting in the city that fall.  In November they found a three bedroom home with a view of the Pacific Ocean at 175 Miraloma Drive in the Sherwood Forest neighborhood of San Francisco.  Offering the full asking price of $37,500, all in cash, they were shocked to find their offer rejected, after initially being accepted, with the owner stating, "neighborhood pressures made him fear he would lose work if he went through with the deal."

A neighbor told the newspaper, "Certainly I objected. I happen to have quite a few pieces of property in that area and I stand to lose a lot if colored people move in."\

An outraged Marghuerite said, "Down in Alabama where we come from you know your place, and that's something, at least. But up here it's all a lot of camouflage. They grin in your face, and then deceive you." 

After an outcry, the owner relented and agreed to sell the property to Mays.

According to this article:

A year and a half after the sale, a bottle crashed through the front window of 175 Miraloma. The bottle contained a racial hate note. Marghuerite made it clear she wasn't happy in the new neighborhood. The couple soon sold the house and moved back to New York.  

After a divorce, Willie moved back to San Francisco in 1963, though according to the linked article, he was still not welcomed by everyone.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Firth Of Fifth

And so with gods and men, the sheep remain inside their penUntil the shephard leads his flock awayThe sands of time were eroded byThe river of constant change 

1970s progressive rock took a lot of well deserved abuse for becoming bloated and pretentious, but Firth Of Fifth, from Selling England By The Pound, the 1973 album by Genesis, is prog rock at its pinnacle, a gorgeous journey, musically and lyrically.

Firth starts with the beautiful solo piano of Tony Banks, before the verses kick in with Peter Gabriel singing.  We have a flute solo by Gabriel and then a lush extended guitar piece by Steve Hackett.  Close your eyes while gliding along with the guitar.  And all underpinned by Mike Rutherford's intricate bass and Phil Collins' drumming.  Collins' later success as a singer and solo artist has tended to detract from his brilliance as one of the finest prog rock drummers,

Genesis remain my favorite prog rock band with this album and 1971's Nursery Cryme as their finest efforts.  With Gabriel leaving in 1975, Phil Collins taking over vocals, and Steve Hackett leaving after the first post-Gabriel album Trick of the Tail, Genesis became a completely different type of act


Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Cosmic Slop

 Sometimes it get weird with George Clinton's Funkadelic.  Well, actually, it gets weird very frequently with anything George Clinton does.  From 1973, this is Cosmic Slop, and I think that's George in whiteface.  Although it is definitely weird, it is also pretty representative of New York City in the early 70s.  Also, I swear I've never been at a party like this.

For all the craziness it's a sobering lyric:

I was one of five born to my motherAn older sister and three young brothersWe've seen it hard, we've seen it kind of roughBut always with a smile, she was sure to try to hideThe fact from us that life was really tough 

The weirdness, seriousness at times, and musicianship is what makes Funkadelic, Parliament, and Parliament/Funkadelic memorable. 

Features Garry Shider on vocals and guitar, Ron Bykowski on lead guitar, Tyrone Lampkin on drums, and bass by Boogie Mosson. 

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Domme At Night

We've returned to our favorite spot in Europe for the first time since 2022, the little walled town of Domme in southwest France.

Some evening photos from around the place we are renting.