And Then . . .

 On October 19, 2019 I wrote:

Trump takes down his supporters just as much as he takes down his opponents.  We are all sinking.  The difference between progressives and the rest of us is they think this process started in 2016 while we know our descent into Bizarro World began in 2008 and there are no signs we are emerging.

It is a terrible time in American politics, the worst in my lifetime.  The politically inept, intellectually, and ethically bankrupt GOP that Trump destroyed deserved its fate.  Meanwhile, 21st century Democrats embrace intolerance and division, seemingly intent on making the United States the new Yugoslavia.  Maybe we deserve Trump (though for a contra view see this).  As Henry Kissinger noted in 2018:

"I think Trump may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretenses.  It doesn't necessarily mean that he knows this, or that he is considering any great alternative. It could just be an accident."

On December 14, 2020 I wrote:

Can the post-Trump GOP find a path that rejects the coming attempt by the Romney/Sasse/Bush Remnants to regain control while avoiding falling into the fever swamp of crazies?

Will Donald Trump allow the growth of a non-Trump GOP which can tread that path?

Is there a candidate who can retain Trump's appeal to new voters and bring back some of the suburban voters alienated by Trump's personality and antics?

Unless the answer is yes to all, the GOP will have trouble sustaining its national viability.

The repulsive, impulsive, chaotic traits of Donald Trump contributed to his defeat.  But he also realigned the GOP and began creating a new coalition, drawing more than 10 million new voters in this election - more working class, more Hispanic, and with a start on adding black support.

The pre-Trump GOP of chamber of commerce friendliness, always scouting for foreign interventions to Make America Great Again, pretending to care about controlling immigration, afraid of taking on the underlying cultural issues, and running for the hills anytime it is accused of racism, is dead and any attempt to revive it will rip apart the party.  

Donald Trump's time is over.  The question is whether he recognizes it.  Does he want to run again? He will be closer to 79 than 78 on inauguration day in 2025.  I don't think he will wear well with the greater public.  He'll be tweeting and holding rallies and looking even crazier than before because he will not have any positive accomplishments to point to over the next four years to offset the nuttiness.  It would be a disaster if he runs in 2024.

Unfortunately, he retains a large personal following and will be influential if he chooses to be so, I fear a temptation too hard for him to resist.  Even if he ends up not running in 2024 but manages to smother the emergent of any potential successor more palatable to a larger part of the electorate it is a big problem for the future of the GOP and, worse case, it could tear the party apart if he remains a prominent figure.

As of today, I would say the answer to all my questions is No.  It looks like Trump is maintaining, and possibly expanding, his hold on the party.   There are more crazies than I thought, ready to sign on for his 2024 Revenge Tour.  There were always a certain number of crazies but their ranks have been swelled with those who, at one time, appeared sensible but have been driven over the edge by what they see happening in media and with our institutions.  What I see happening is explainable but it's going to be politically counterproductive. 

I think Trump forfeited any right to further support (and I will not support him even if he ends up the nominee) by his behavior post-election, sabotaging the Georgia Senate races in order to support his claim of a stolen presidential election, promoting an insane theory of election fraud and then creating a bizarre theory on the supposed significance of January 6, even as he knew the election results were not a surprise and consistent with his campaign's internal polling.  I don't think he planned or particularly wanted the Capitol stormed on that day, but I believe that once it was occurring it did not bother him and, for that, he should be condemned and, I thought at the time, the 25th Amendment should have been invoked.  But he's a better salesman than I.  Good enough to possibly get the 2024 nomination but not good enough to get elected, even with the Democrats as horrible and authoritarian as they've become.

Despite media portrayals, Trump is not a fascist or dictatorial.  He proved in office to be what I predicted in 2016, Silvio Berlusconi, though without the bunga-bunga room.  In truth, Donald Trump was a weak President and that was the root problem.  His lack of knowledge and interest in the details of government operation led to his appointing many who did not agree with his agenda and his inability to get rid of those embedded in the bureaucracy who undermined him.  His sophomoric instincts led him to appoint General Mattis because he liked his nickname, "Mad Dog", even though Mattis had very different ideas about foreign policy and then, when he became disenchanted with Mattis, appointed General Milley, who also disagreed with Trump, as head of the Joint Chiefs because he knew Mattis hated Milley.  Trump wanted to withdraw from Afghanistan but let the military drag its feet for four years.  In contrast Biden plowed ahead, which I agree with, though at the tactical level the withdrawal was an unbelievable and unnecessary disaster.

Domestically, Trump had a rhetorical agenda but not a legislative one (with Trump you get impulses, not policy), nor did he ever have any idea how to make that happen.  For that reason, there was very little a Democratic Congress had to do in order to undo Trump's agenda.  Trump's major accomplishment, the appointment of judges, is primarily due to Mitch McConnell, not Trump.

Even if he does not run but stays active his "force-field" will distort the 2022 midterms.

I see the net result of this in Arizona where the GOP has split into those who will support Trump in anything he says or does and those trying to retain some objectivity.  We have this ridiculous "forensic audit" ongoing which itself is a fraud.  No good will come from it.

Bad times continue.