The Surveillance File

From the CDC Case Surveillance File, some interesting data on Covid mortality rates for various age brackets over the course of the pandemic.  This is the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), individuals specifically diagnosed and reported to authorities.  The CFR is not the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which would include all cases and can only be estimated.  The IFR would be substantially lower than the CFR.  For instance, my covid case (which was very mild), diagnosed by a self-administered test while in France this past May, would count under the IFR, but not the CFR, because it was not reported in either France or the United States.

As you can see, the CFR drops quickly across all age groups after the spring of 2020.  Rates drop throughout 2020, and then drop again in early 2021 as vaccines become available.  There's a further small rise in the summer and early fall of '21 due to the Delta variant and then rates fall rapidly, even for the most vulnerable (those over 80). 

You can easily see the small fatality rate for those under 40, and vanishingly small for those under 20, since the start of the pandemic.  For those 70-79 the CFR has been below 1% since February 2022.  Looking at the data, I think the personal risk assessment I reported on in April 2021 holds up well with one exception.  At the time, it was thought vaccination significantly reduced your chance of infection.  That proved not to be true, though it does reduce the risk of serious consequences.  It's also why it was a mistake to call it a vaccine, when it is closer to a flu shot.

Unless we see a more serious variant develop, covid is now a background risk, mostly for the elderly, just like the flu and pneumonia.

I came across this data after reading an article in today's NY Times on, of all things, the potential for catching Covid from corpses!  The article contained this gem:

"Up to 70 percent of those infected with Ebola die, compared with about 3 percent of those diagnosed with Covid-19."

I thought, am I missing something?  A 3% CFR?  Where'd that come from?  I knew there was a 3.4% fatality estimate based upon early Wuhan data, but wasn't that obsolete?  Well, as you can see it is obsolete.  The last time the CFR in the U.S. was above 3% was in May 2020.  It's been below 2% since then, below 1% since November 2021, and below 0.5% since March 2022 (and for those under 60, the last time above 0.5% was more than a year ago), and as of September 2022 the CFR was less than 1/20 of 3%.

No wonder Times readers are still so freaked out over Covid.  The Times reporting on this, as on many other topics, is no better than watching someone on YouTube promoting ivermectin or telling you that the vaccines contain microchips designed by Bill Gates.