I usually start these monthly updates with the data on the countries with the highest mortality rates but this month we'll have those at the end of the post because cumulative death rates are no longer the most important covid story. There are two interrelated stories that need to be emphasized; (1) the covid upsurge in most of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and (2) the delta variant.
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The increase in covid cases and deaths noted last month in Asia and Africa has accelerated. In sub-Saharan Africa there is a shortage of tests, medical care and data but many countries which had been relatively untouched (at least officially) until this May are now facing covid surges.
The same is true in Asia, particularly South and Southeast Asia. Indonesia is seeing more than 1,000 deaths daily and Myanmar suddenly has a major outbreak. According to three Indian demographers, that country, which officially reports 420,000 deaths, has actually had in excess of 4 million covid related deaths.
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The delta variant, first identified in November 2020 in India (prior to the use of any vaccines, so claims its origin was prompted by vaccines are not true, is now the predominant strain globally. It is much more transmissible than earlier variants, though it does not appear more deadly.
For the vaccinated, while the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are effective against delta, they are not as effective as they are against the original virus and its variants. However, they are generally effective in reducing the severity of covid-related illnesses. If you have an immunological compromised system or significant co-morbidities, additional caution is warranted.
For the unvaccinated, particularly the elderly or those with co-morbidities, delta poses an increased risk because of its easy transmissibility, not because it is more severe.
Delta's viral load is about 100x that of the original virus. One of the implications of this is lowered effectiveness of masking because of the amount of viral aerosolized material emitted by those infected. Masking already had limited effectiveness and that only if the wearer correctly handled the mask; most didn't in my observations. If you are concerned use N95 masks.
The good news is that given the extent of vaccination so far the increase in cases in the U.S. has not seen as steep a rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Let's hope that trend continues.
As for what happens next and what you are seeing in the media keep this in mind (from Matt Shapiro's substack, Marginally Compelling):
There is obsession in the press to look at small vaccination differences and treat them like large ones. The United States as a whole is 68.6% vaccinated with at least one dose. The lowest state is almost at 50%, but has still vaccinated 78% of their senior population. When you look at the Kaiser monthly vaccine monitor, you see that almost every variable that raises the risk of COVID (living in a population-dense city, age, having a dangerous co-morbidity) corresponds to a higher rate of COVID vaccination. We’ve targeted the highly-vulnerable and let the medium-vulnerable make their own choices (most have chosen to get vaccinated). As a result, I expect we’re going to start seeing COVID surges that look more like the UK’s recent surge.
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For those in my age group (65+) I support vaccination unless there are medical reasons not to do so, or if you have already had covid. The age risk factors are enormous as I've previously noted. I'm glad to see that in Arizona more than 87% of those 65+ have been vaccinated.
If I were a young adult or had children I would be more hesitant about vaccination because the risks associated with these vaccines may outweigh the benefits.
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Last month I wrote about the China lab leak theory and its plausibility. Since then it has become even more apparent to me that we should treat it as the default assumption. China was able within 2-3 months to identify the source of the original SARS viruses back in the 2000s and has had ample opportunity to identify a natural source for covid-19 over the past 18 months and failed to do so. It now also opposes WHO's recent announcement of a further investigation on the origins of covid-19. We've learned that more and more of the origin story we were told in early 2020 was wrong - for instance, the first cases were not associated with the Wuhan live market; rather they were close to the Wuhan virology lab. Our own media helped with the disinformation, peddling the story that the virology lab was sited in that city because it was near the origin point of SARS type viruses. We now know that the lab was constructed in Wuhan prior to the first SARS outbreak in 2002 and the known sources of the virus are hundreds of miles away; there is no nearby natural source.
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Senator Rand Paul lacked discipline in his questioning of Dr Fauci earlier this week but on the big picture he was correct. Dr Fauci did direct funding to the Wuhan virology lab and it was done so via the EcoHealth Alliance led by the doctor who organized the now inoperative February 2020 letter dismissing a possible lab origin of the virus (which is turn prompted the media to denounce anyone who said otherwise of being guilty of "misinformation" and conspiracy mongering). Dr Fauci employed his usual tactic of not directly answering questions and, when he does so, using misdirection to let the casual listener think he is responsive when he is not.
Dr Fauci reminds me of another long-tenured DC bureaucrat who amassed too much power and abused it, intimidated those who opposed him, loved the limelight, and could do no wrong in the eyes of his supporters; J Edgar Hoover. Time for him to go.
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This week several Democratic senators introduced a bill that would hold Facebook, YouTube and other social media companies responsible for the proliferation of falsehoods about vaccines, fake cures and other harmful health-related claims on their sites.
"The legislation leaves it up to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which is responsible for declaring public health emergencies, to define what constitutes health misinformation."
Has there been misleading and inaccurate information from those opposed to the covid vaccines? Yes. But this is a terrible legislative proposal for multiple reasons.
The first is the general principle of freedom of speech which this would violate.
The second is that it delegates the determination of what is "health misinformation" to an agency which has promoted health misinformation in many instances since the beginning of the covid pandemic. In February of 2020 when Mrs THC and I began to collect face masks, should Facebook have been potentially liable if it failed to prevent us from posting about it at a time when the CDC and Surgeon General said masks were useless? What about promoting the opening of schools last summer? What about stating that covid was primarily an aerosol threat, rather than a particle or surface threat? The evidence of the former was clear by last summer by the official CDC position didn't change until this spring.
Third is that it allows a government agency to effectively censor America citizens by pretending it is a neutral and objective party. The school closing issue is a great example. Its recommendations last year were nonsense but when the CDC was poised to issue new guidance this spring, the teacher unions intervened and, as a major supporter of the Biden administration, were allowed to dictate language eviscerating the policy change.
Finally, this proposal would not be limited to covid information. In April 2021, the CDC Director declared "racism" a public health emergency. Does that mean the social media platforms would become liable if someone posted information disputing that declaration and the claims underlying it? Would Americans be allowed to criticize Black Lives Matter on social media?
The truth is that Progressives and the public health community (which is left-leaning) believe every social problem is really a public health issue in disguise. If enacted, this legislation would create a channel to effectively bar public discussion of public policy issues under the guise of them being public health issues. I think those proposing the legislation understand this quite clearly.
The Official Data
Reported
below are all countries with population of more than one million which
have reported death rates in excess of 1,500 per million (threshold raised from 1,200).
Europe
Hungary
(3116), Bosnia & Herzogovina
(2968), Czechia (2828), Bulgaria (2639), North Macedonia (2635), Slovakia
(2295), Belgium ( 2166), Slovenia (2129), Italy (2119), Croatia (2022)
Poland (1990), UK (1890), Romania (1794), Spain (1736), France (1705), Portugal (1698), Lithuania 1644), Moldova (1551)
North America
USA (1880), Mexico (1823), Panama (1534)
Major Outbreaks: Cuba
South America
Peru (5845), Brazil (2555), Colombia (2290), Argentina (2259), Paraguay (2007)
Chile (1808), Ecuador (1717), Uruguay (1696)
Africa
Tunisia (1511)
Major Outbreaks: South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Uganda
Asia
Armenia (1542)
Major Outbreaks: Malaysia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Afghanistan
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