Theoretically, Israel has a choice. It can choose to take the course of action it has done in the past in response to rocket attacks and murders by Hamas; target Hamas leadership and supply depots in Gaza in a mostly aerial and artillery campaign limited in time. However, the scale and ferocity of the recent attack make such a strategy no longer viable. Since October 7, Hamas has repeatedly and publicly stated that it will continue to launch attacks and its goal remains to eliminate the Jewish state. It has also bragged that its moderating behavior over the past couple of years was a deliberate deception in order to allow it to carry out its massacre. The other choice is to do what the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) is preparing to do. Enter Gaza with ground forces to, the extent possible, eliminate Hamas and its infrastructure. (1)
Doing so will take weeks, if not months. The best analogy to what is about to happen was the retaking of Mosul, Iraq from ISIS in 2016-7, a process that took months, destroyed most of the city, and inflicted thousands of civilian casualties. The assault was undertaken by Iraqi ground forces, supported by American air power and logistics. It was brutal but also remote from active media coverage and received limited attention in the Western press. Secretary of Defense Austin, who participated in the attack on ISIS, visited Israel a few days ago, examined the aftermath of the Hamas attack, and commented that the atrocities committed by Hamas were even worse than those of ISIS. UPDATE: This is a link to an article on the siege of Mosul and a preview of what the IDF is likely to face in Gaza.
In the case of Gaza, a bigger and more difficult urban area than Mosul, the IDF will incur many casualties and, despite efforts to avoid collateral damage, civilians will be killed and injured and there will be occasions when individual IDF soldiers act improperly. The Israeli hostages, mostly women and children, will, with few exceptions, die. The civilian situation will be exacerbated by Hamas interference with those trying to flee and by its use of human shields. And, unlike Mosul, everything will be available via the media, real and fake. It will be long, costly, and horrible but it must be completed.
And there are even bigger questions. Most conflicts move beyond the original control and intentions of the combatants. War is unpredictable; it is uncontrollable. Forecasting the specific course is a fool's errand. In this case, there is a significant chance of a wider war in the Mideast and a small, but real, chance of a global conflict being ignited.
How will Hezbollah, Syria, and the Iranian Guards present in Syria react? All are under the control of Iran, a country that is the main arms supplier to Hamas. If they attack Israel, the IDF will respond in a massive way. How do Iran's allies, Russia and China, respond? How will the U.S. respond? (2)
Will another actor try to take advantage of the chaos. Could North Korea attack South Korea? Could China attempt to retake Taiwan by force? How would the U.S. react? Can it react effectively, given how hollowed out and overstretched our military and our supply systems are?
From Israel I read a number of sources and recommend Times of Israel, a politically centrist publication unlike the Jerusalem Post (right) and H'aaretz (fringe left).
UPDATE: Oct 21 - I came across this article which provides a good explanation of the Israeli strategic, political, and intelligence failures leading up to the Oct 7 attacks. Much of this has been reported in various US and Israeli outlets before, but this piece provides a succinct summary.
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(1) For those saying Israel has another choice - end the occupation of Gaza and make peace with the Palestinians, those are not real choices. The Israeli occupation of Gaza ended in 2005, when, in the midst of much Israeli opposition, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered several thousand Jewish settlers to evacuate the area, an order carried out using force in some instances. Economic development plans were drawn up for Gaza. In 2006, Hamas won local elections, murdered Palestinian Authority personnel, seized control and there have been no further elections.
The Hamas charter opposes any presence of Jews in Palestine and calls for their deaths. Hamas does not want a two-state solution. There had been hopes by some in Israel that Hamas might as, a practical matter and despite its charter, moderate its demands. It turns out they mean what they say. Hamas is not interested in Peace. Its interest is Death.
To the extent Israel and Egypt have limited access to Gaza, it is in response to terrorist attacks by Hamas. This is a choice made by Hamas, not Israel and Egypt. Since 2005, Gaza has been the largest per capita recipient of foreign aid, including from the U.S, in the world. The hope had been that infrastructure could be improved and significant economic development take place. Hamas has diverted aid to purchase and make arms and build its underground infrastructure. It has chosen to make destruction of Israel its priority to the detriment of the population of Gaza. It's strategy to gain foreign support has to provoke Israel and when Israel responds claim it is "occupied" or an "open air prison", a rhetorical trick. Hamas gains strength by pretending to be oppressed.
During times of peace, Israel provides free electricity and water to Gaza. Over the past four years, the Israeli government has provided economic assistance to Gaza and issued 17,000 work permits for Gazans to enter Israel, all in the hope that economic improvements would deter Hamas. After the recent massacre it has been discovered that some of those issued work permits were Hamas operatives casing Israeli towns and kibbutz in preparation for the slaughter. Israel also provides humanitarian medical assistance, bringing Gaza residents with serious conditions to Israel for treatment.
Among those murdered by Hamas last week were Israeli volunteers for the ambulance service bringing Gazans to Israeli hospitals. The music festival at which 260 were killed and others kidnapped was a peace festival organized by those opposed to current Israeli government policy regarding the Palestinians. At the same time, a kite flying event at the border, organized by a family each year to symbolize their support for Gaza was also attacked. The family (husband, wife, two children) were killed by Hamas.
In 2008, Yahya Sinwar, a member of Hamas, was in an Israeli prison because of his terrorist activities. After becoming ill, Sinwar was diagnosed with a brain tumor. Israeli doctors removed the tumor, saving Sinwar's life. In 2017, Sinwar became the head of Hamas operations in Gaza and oversaw this month's massacre. If Israel is really genocidal, it's really bad at it. By the way, in 1948 there were 800,000 Palestinians. Today, in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza there are 7 million. In 2022, life expectancy in the West Bank and Gaza was 75.4 years. In the U.S. it was 77.3 years. Like I said, Israel seems to be very inept in this genocide business.
Words and phrases like "genocide", "carpet-bombing" and "war crimes" have lost any meaning by overuse and deliberate misuse, much as "racist", "transphobe", "hate speech", and "misinformation" have lost any meaning in America. Israel does have the ability to obliterate Gaza and kill a sizeable percentage of its population, without incurring losses itself. It has chosen not to follow that course of action. Every Israeli soldier dying in Gaza is doing because of Israel's choice to minimize harming Palestinian civilians.
(2) Speaking of which, why do we still have military bases in Iraq and Syria? The U.S. is leaving its forces at the mercy of Iran which can decide if, when, and where it wants to attack them or obtain hostages. I simply do not understand our strategic thinking. Why would we leave the initiative with our enemies?
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