On the horizonAn intriguing song from the B-52s (1989)
The landscape's burning red . . .
Well everybody love to dance around the heat and fire
Oh lightnin' strike twice
Hey everybody bask in the afterglow . . .
Thursday, May 7, 2015
Bushfire
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Willie Turns 84
Happy birthday Willie Mays! My favorite baseball player (and my dad's).
Catching Willie Mays in a rundown is like trying to assassinate a squirrel with a lawnmower
- Bill James
Let's sing along on his birthday!
(L to R, Stan Musial (Cards), Mays, Vernon Law (Pirates), Eddie Mathews (Braves), Ken Boyer (Cards) in 1960, probably at the All-Star game) For more on Stan Musial and his role in welcoming black players into the major leagues see Earl & The Man.
And let's do a peak performance retrospective as we did recently with Eddie Collins. Willie's peak was a bit shorter - 13 seasons. After his rookie season in 1951, Mays spent two years doing military service, returning in time for the 1954 season. From then until the end of the 1966 season was a run of sustained brilliance with a higher peak than Collins. Here's what it looks like:
1954 - 1966 (figures in parens are number of seasons)
WAR Position Players: Top 4 for all 13 seasons; 11 seasons #1 or #2
Batting Average: Top Ten (9)
On-Base %: Top Ten (13); Top 5 (8)
Slugging: Top Five (13)
Runs: Top Ten (13), Top Five (11)
Total Bases: Top Five (13)
Home Runs: Top Ten (13), Top Five (11)
RBIs: Top Ten (12)
Walks: Top Ten (10)
Stolen Bases: Top Ten (10), Top Five (7)
OPS+: Top Ten (13), Top Five (12)
Putouts: Top Four (13), 10 seasons #1 or #2
Assists: Top Four (12), 7 seasons #1 or #2
Double Plays: Top Four (11), 7 seasons #1 or #2
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
Clippers 111, Spurs 109
THC couldn't let Saturday night's magnificent Game 7 between the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs pass without comment even if it is belated. This was an incredible Round 1 NBA Playoffs matchup and would have made for a great finals. The first six games were close and hard played but Game 7 took it to a higher level. We watched from the tip-off to the end and neither team let up for a minute. There were 31 lead changes, including 12 in the fourth quarter (it seemed more like 4,365). It was as good an NBA game as we could remember seeing and it was sports at its best.
We like both teams. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin of the Clippers are amazing to watch but we can never root against the 39-year old Tim Duncan, one of the ten best players in the league's history and a class act. And at the top of this post you can watch how it ended with Paul, who pulled a hamstring early in the game, scoring over Duncan.
Monday, May 4, 2015
Fun With Numbers: The U.S. Census
Last December the United States Census Bureau released its estimate of state populations as of July 1, 2014. The big news was that Florida passed New York as the third most populous state. As you would expect, this prompted THC to take a dive into census data and he has now resurfaced to submit this report.
New York was dethroned as the most populous state in 1970 when California captured the title. The Empire State had a long run as #1 after surpassing Virginia in the 1810 census. As early as 1800 New York contained more than 10% of all Americans and it remained above that mark through the 1880 census, peaking at 14% in 1840. From 1890 through 1920 the state had between 9 and 10 percent of the U.S. population before again breaching the 10% line in both 1930 and 1940. New York still had more than 9% of the population through 1970 but as of 2014 the state contains only 6.1% of Americans, a seismic change in demographical terms.
In 2014 the most populated states are California, Texas, Florida and New York but in 1940 New York had almost as many people (13.48 million) as the other three combined (15.22 million) with California ranked #5, Texas #6 and Florida #27. Here is what's happened in the 74 years since then:
1940 2014
New York 13.48 19.75
California 6.91 38.80
Texas 6.41 26.96
Florida 1.90 19.89
Taking a broader look at the Northeast, we see similar trends for the New England states; Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. In 1850 these states constituted 12.2% of the nation's population. By 1940 this shrunk to 6.2% and today it stands at 4.6%. There's also been a big demographic shift within New England. THC was surprised to find that until 1890 the population of Maine was larger than that of Connecticut (today CT is almost 3X the size of Maine). In fact in 1840 the three northern states (Maine, NH and Vermont) had almost as many people as the three southern states (1.078 million v 1.157 million) whereas in 2014 the three northern states have 3.27 million people compared to 11.18 million in the southern states.
(From wikipedia)
We can also trace these demographic changes through the steady movement of the mean center of U.S. population since the first census. In 1790 it was in Kent County, Maryland on the east side of Chesapeake Bay, not far from Delaware. Through the 1920 census the center moved continuously due west reaching Owen County in western Indiana. Since then it's turned southwest, plunging through Illinois, crossing the Mississippi south of St Louis and reaching Kent County in southwestern Missouri. If you extrapolate the path out a few decades it leads directly to Bentonville, Arkansas, the home of Walmart. THC is sure this is no coincidence!
(future center of US population from redfishuniversity)
Another way to see the demographic shift is to compare trends in New England with those of the four Southwestern desert states (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah).
In 1940, the six New England states contained 8.23 million people while the four desert states had a total of 1.69 million with all four ranking between the 40th and 48th most populous states. Today both regions have the same population; New England with 14.69 million, the desert states with 14.60 million.
In 1940, Arizona was #43 with 499,000 people. Today, Arizona with 6.73 million is the 15th most populous state and will likely move into the #14 position this year, passing Massachusetts. Nevada was #48 with 110,000 and today is #35 with 2.84 million while New Mexico moved from 41 to 36 and Utah from 40 to 33.
The census also tracks our transition from an agrarian to urban society. In 1880, Iowa was the 9th most populous state with 1.62 million people or 3.22% of the nation's population. The state held the #10 position in both the 1890 and 1900 census. Today Iowa is #30 with 3.11 million or 0.97% of the population. The THC family has done its part to contribute to this shift as Mrs THC originally hails from Iowa City.
New York was dethroned as the most populous state in 1970 when California captured the title. The Empire State had a long run as #1 after surpassing Virginia in the 1810 census. As early as 1800 New York contained more than 10% of all Americans and it remained above that mark through the 1880 census, peaking at 14% in 1840. From 1890 through 1920 the state had between 9 and 10 percent of the U.S. population before again breaching the 10% line in both 1930 and 1940. New York still had more than 9% of the population through 1970 but as of 2014 the state contains only 6.1% of Americans, a seismic change in demographical terms.
In 2014 the most populated states are California, Texas, Florida and New York but in 1940 New York had almost as many people (13.48 million) as the other three combined (15.22 million) with California ranked #5, Texas #6 and Florida #27. Here is what's happened in the 74 years since then:
1940 2014
New York 13.48 19.75
California 6.91 38.80
Texas 6.41 26.96
Florida 1.90 19.89
Taking a broader look at the Northeast, we see similar trends for the New England states; Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. In 1850 these states constituted 12.2% of the nation's population. By 1940 this shrunk to 6.2% and today it stands at 4.6%. There's also been a big demographic shift within New England. THC was surprised to find that until 1890 the population of Maine was larger than that of Connecticut (today CT is almost 3X the size of Maine). In fact in 1840 the three northern states (Maine, NH and Vermont) had almost as many people as the three southern states (1.078 million v 1.157 million) whereas in 2014 the three northern states have 3.27 million people compared to 11.18 million in the southern states.
(From wikipedia)We can also trace these demographic changes through the steady movement of the mean center of U.S. population since the first census. In 1790 it was in Kent County, Maryland on the east side of Chesapeake Bay, not far from Delaware. Through the 1920 census the center moved continuously due west reaching Owen County in western Indiana. Since then it's turned southwest, plunging through Illinois, crossing the Mississippi south of St Louis and reaching Kent County in southwestern Missouri. If you extrapolate the path out a few decades it leads directly to Bentonville, Arkansas, the home of Walmart. THC is sure this is no coincidence!
(future center of US population from redfishuniversity) Another way to see the demographic shift is to compare trends in New England with those of the four Southwestern desert states (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah).
In 1940, the six New England states contained 8.23 million people while the four desert states had a total of 1.69 million with all four ranking between the 40th and 48th most populous states. Today both regions have the same population; New England with 14.69 million, the desert states with 14.60 million.
In 1940, Arizona was #43 with 499,000 people. Today, Arizona with 6.73 million is the 15th most populous state and will likely move into the #14 position this year, passing Massachusetts. Nevada was #48 with 110,000 and today is #35 with 2.84 million while New Mexico moved from 41 to 36 and Utah from 40 to 33.
The census also tracks our transition from an agrarian to urban society. In 1880, Iowa was the 9th most populous state with 1.62 million people or 3.22% of the nation's population. The state held the #10 position in both the 1890 and 1900 census. Today Iowa is #30 with 3.11 million or 0.97% of the population. The THC family has done its part to contribute to this shift as Mrs THC originally hails from Iowa City.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Steady Eddie Collins
(from gasoline alley antiques) 
Eddie Collins was born on May 2, 1887 at Millerton, New York adjacent to Connecticut's Litchfield County. He reached the majors in 1906 for a few games with the Philadelphia Athletics, becoming their regular second baseman in 1908 at the age of 21, a position he retained until traded to the Chicago White Sox after the 1914 season. He remained with the White Sox through the 1926 season when he returned to the Athletics for his final four years (in the last three appearing in only 48 games).
Collins was one of the greatest second basemen in baseball history. He had over 3,000 hits, a batting average of .333 and on-base percentage of .424 (still the 12th highest figure ever) along with stealing 741 bases (being #2 in this category as of the time of retirement). As of the start of the 2015 season he is 10th in career Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He was also an excellent defensive player and had a reputation as one of the smartest players in the game.
(from hardball times)
Eddie was also a winner. In the ten years from 1910 through 1919 he played in six World Series, hitting .328. More importantly, he was one of the White Sox players who did not take money to throw the 1919 series.
But what recently caught THC's eye was Eddie Collins' consistency over this career. He played at a top level of performance for eighteen seasons (1909-26). Some of this is an artifact of the times as his career spans the transition between the deadball (1903-19) and liveball eras (1920 on) so he did not suffer the type of statistical decline that you would expect in the early 1920s as he got older. On the other hand, he still remained among the top performers even on a relative basis.
From 1909-26 (figures in parens are number of seasons):
WAR Position Players: Top Ten (15), Top Five (10)
Batting Avg: Top Ten (15), Top 5 (10); batted between .344 and .349 in seven seasons.
On-Base %: Top Ten (18), Top Five (13); OBP between .441 and .461 in eight seasons
Adjusted On-Base + Slugging %: Top Ten (13), Top Five (9)
Walks: Top Ten (14), Top Five (11)
Stolen Bases: Top Ten (17), Top Five (13)
Singles: Top Ten (15), Top Five (11)
Put Outs (2B): Top Five (17), 1st or 2nd (13)
Assists (2B): Top Five (17), 1st or 2nd (7)
Double Plays (2B): Top Five (17), 1st or 2nd (10)
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