Thursday, April 24, 2014

Gibson Koufax Marichal Mashup

   

In last week's post on Sandy Koufax and Dazzy Vance, THC mentioned Sandy's phenomenal performance in games when he had only 1, 2 or 3 runs of support and promised to look at the record of his fellow aces, Juan Marichal and Bob Gibson, under similar circumstances.  THC is here to report back on his findings.

The first step was to find a four year stretch for Gibson and Marichal comparable to Koufax in 1963 through 1966.  You can argue which years best fit for Bob and Juan but in THC's judgement it was 1966 through 1969 for each of them.  Like Koufax, they were each at their peak and each had one year, like Koufax, when their seasons were shortened by injury.

We'll show you the bottom line, before discussing some of the interesting findings and then finish laying out the complete data line for each.

Record when supported by 1, 2 or 3 runs:

                 W      L      Pct
Koufax     40     18    .689    
Marichal   26     19    .578
Gibson     29     30    .490

As a reminder, anything better than .400 is well above average.  Note that while last week's post reported Koufax's record as 41-18 a further review of the data subtracted one win.

Surprisingly, while we think of Koufax as having poor run support it turns out that Gibson actually had more decisions when he only got 1-3 runs and he was shut out more often (8 times compared to 6 for Koufax).  It also occurred in fewer starts and decisions.  Here are 1-3 run support games as a percentage of total decisions.

Gibson      50.4%
Koufax      46.8%
Marichal   36.3%
(Gibson)
All of these pitchers were workhorses by today's standards but there were some differences.  Koufax pitched in a four man rotation and Gibson in a five man rotation while Marichal was in between.   They all completed a large number of starts during the period but Marichal was amazing completing 100 of 136 starts (73.5%) compared to Gibson (63.3%) and Koufax (59.3%)
(Marichal)
Gibson's under .500 record conceals a stunning streak in his memorable 1968 season (1.12 ERA with 13 shutouts) when he won 9 consecutive low-run support games.  During that streak the Cardinals scored 18 runs while Gibson gave up only one, pitching eight shutouts.

And it turns out there is a story within the story.  THC went back and looked at the lowest scoring of the low-run support decisions; the 1-0 and 2-1 games and found that the three pitchers collectively won 72.7% of those games (40 of 55) .  Here are the individual records:

Koufax    18-6
Marichal    9-3
Gibson    13-6

For further perspective the offensive context they all pitched in was different from that of the 1994-2006 period with teams averaging only about 4 runs per game.  For each of their seasons here are runs scored and league standing (1963-8 in a 10 team league and 1969 in a 12 team leagues).

Dodgers            Giants             Cardinals
640 (6)              675 (5)           571 (10)
614 (8)              652 (4)           695 (2)
608 (8)              599 (3)           583 (4)
606 (8)              713 (4)           595 (10)

And what happened when these pitchers had more than 3 runs to work with?

                    W        L
Koufax        57       3
Gibson        47       5
Marichal     50      11

In three of his four seasons, Bob Gibson lost either zero or one game when he had four or more runs to work with.  Koufax won his last 39 decisions when he had that many runs to work with.  There is an oddity in Marichal's record when he lost five high run support games during his injury shortened 1967 season.  Three of those loses (7-8, 6-8, 6-8) along with a no-decision (5-6) and an 8-4 win came just before his season ended with a hamstring injury.  Had he been hurt in some way even before the injury?

Based on this data, Koufax's performance in low-run support games is still remarkable even in the context of his peers.
(Koufax icing elbow after game)

UPDATE: While doing research to answer a question raised in the comments, I discovered that Gibson's remarkable 1968 performance was in the middle of a longer extraordinary streak that started with his last four starts in 1967, continued for the entire 68 campaign, and included his first nine starts in 1969.  During that period, Gibson completed 39 of 47 starts, had a record of 30-12, with 16 shutouts (and two other complete games in which he did not give up an earned run), and an ERA of 1.15.


Summary (all data from Baseball-Reference.com).   Seasons:  Koufax 1963-66; Gibson 1966-69; Marichal 1966-69

KOUFAX

W        L      ERA      GS      GC      Innings     0 Run Support     1,2,3 Run Support
25       5       1.88       40       20       311                    1                        9-2
19       5       1.74       28       15       223                    2                      10-2
26       8       2.04       41       27       336                    0                      13-8
27       9       1.73       41       27       323                    3                        8-6  

GIBSON
21     12      2.44       35        20       280                    3                        8-9
13      7       2.98       24        10       175                    1                        3-3
22      9       1.12       34        28       305                    3                       12-6
20     13      2.18       35        23       314                    1                        6-12

MARICHAL
25      6       2.23       36        25       307                    2                        6-4
14     10      2.76       26        18       202                    2                        3-3
26      9       2.43       38        30       326                    1                        6-5
21    11       2.10       36        27       300                    1                       11-7   


12 comments:

  1. Mark,
    This is a terrific article about three of the all-time greats, and certainly reveals the ability and tenacity to win on limited support. I seem to remember using my transistor radio after going to bed one night to listen as Koufax allowed something like 12-13 hits and either got a shutout or only gave up a run or two...to win. These guys might bend, but it was almost impossible to break them in their prime. Another interesting factoid for Koufax is his perfect game. He won 1-0 with the other pitcher giving up only 1 hit...and the hit had nothing to do with the run. Typical Dodgers of the era.

    Thanks, Kurt

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  2. This is a fantastic article! Thanks for this....

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  3. Juan Marichal is by FAR the most underrated pitcher/player of all time. He might have come up just a LITTLE bit short of Koufax during this 4 year or 5 year stretch but ...that is comparing to what most believe is the greatest 4 or 5 year stretch of ALL TIME !!! Gibson is similar but he has gotten a lot more recognition, appropriately so, than Marichal. AND, I'm a lifelong, died in the wool Cardinal fan.

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  4. What was the head to head records of koufax vs. gibson

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    1. Good question. Just checked. They went head to head 5 times with the Dodgers winning 4. 4 of the 5 were in 1961, 62, and 63. The final matchup was on April 26, 1966. Koufax threw three shutouts and two of the games (May 25, 1961 and June 18, 1962) were 1-0 with Tommy Davis hitting homers off Gibson in both. The Dodgers won the 1966 game 4-2 but it was a bit odd. Both pitchers went the distance with Koufax giving up 13 hits. Gibson gave up 6 hits and all 4 runs in the 1st and then allowed only 1 hit and no runs the rest of the way.

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  5. What was the head to head Marichal vs Koufax?

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    1. I just looked at it. They only started against each other 4 times. On June 3, 1961 both pitched complete games with Koufax winning 4-3, when Marichal gave up a walk off HR. On May 11, 1963, Koufax threw a no-hitter against the Giants with Marichal getting knocked out in the 6th. Thirteen days later, the Giants won 7-1, with Koufax knocked out in the 1st after getting only one out and Marichal tossing a 4-hitter. The final was the infamous game on August 22, 1965, when Marichal hit Roseboro on the head with the bat in the bottom of the 3rd and was ejected from the game. Koufax seemed shaken up and though he struck out the pinch hitter sent in for Marichal, he then gave up two walks and a three run homer to Willie Mays. He settled down the rest of the way only giving up one hit but he took the loss. I noticed that in Koufax's last season he started 6 times against the Giants, but never against Marichal, who started 4 games against the Dodgers.

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    2. obviously by design--roatations arranged to have them avoid each other. Marichal usually pitched against Drysdale---head to head would be interesting

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    3. Glad you asked because the research was fascinating. You are correct. From 1961 through 1968 they faced each other 16 times, including 3 in 1961, 4 in 1963, 3 in 1965 and 4 in 1966. So while Marichal and Koufax faced off 4 times between 61 and 66, Marichal and Drysdale faced each other 14 times. In 1961 neither was particularly impressive, the Dodgers winning 2 of 3 but in two of the games neither got the decision. From 1963 on it is all Marichal. The Giants win 10 of 13, with Marichal going 10-2, his only non-decision being a 12 inning game where he left after 10 innings. In those 13 starts, he only gave up more than 2 earned runs once. It wasn't like the Giants were getting him a lot of runs. In one 7 game stretch, the Giants scored only 19 runs but Marichal went 5-1 with a no-decision.

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  6. Gibson 1968 lost a game 6-4 but it appears you have all his 9 losses in run support games of 3 and under. Am I wrong or misinterpreting something incorrectly?

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    1. This is Mark. I checked the 1968 data and then decided to recheck Gibson's record for the other 3 seasons, because the sentence I'd written stated he did not lose a game in 3 of the 4 seasons when he got at least 4 runs in support. He did lose a 6-4 game on August 24, 1968. For six innings he was pitching a one-hit shutout of the Pirates with 10 Ks. In the 7th, the first batter reached on an error and Stargell hit a HR. He gave up another run in the 8th and then in the 9th, Stargell hit a 2B and the Card's shortstop committed what was an error on what looks like a double-play ball, ending up with two unearned runs, so Gibson gave up 3 earned runs in the loss. Gibson didn't lose a game like that in 1966 and, consistent with my post, lost three such in 1967. However, it turns out I'd made another error regarding 1969, when Gibson lost a game 7-5, so the correct count is that he lost 5, not 3, such games from 1966 through 1969. I appreciate your taking the time to look at the data and raise the question. Thanks. I've corrected the post to reflect the more accurate data.

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  7. I was so fortunate to see these three pitch (in person) starting in 1965 when I was 9 yrs old at The ‘Stick! So many great players on much fewer teams. Teams were loaded with greats, unlike today’s water-down Leagues.

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