COVID + 13

I wouldn't call the past month in the U.S. a good one, but it has definitely been better as vaccines have kicked in and the death rate dropped.  Globally, it was a bad month as Europe and South America still are being hit hard while India is trying to cope with a terrible phase of the pandemic.

A Pandemic of Three Continents

Europe, North America and South America account for 20% of the world's population but 77% of Covid deaths to date.  The average mortality rate for the combined continents is about 1,400 per million with very little variation among them .  Africa and Asia, while 80% of the global population, are only 23% of deaths with an average mortality rate of 110 per million though, as mentioned above, India is now suffering greatly. 

As always, this is just a snapshot in time.  No one can predict when the pandemic will end globally or if countries relatively unaffected so far will be next in line.  During the Influenze Pandemic of 1918-19 the first two waves left Australia unaffected; the third, more than a year after the start of the pandemic took a terrible toll on that country.

Until recently, three large countries in South America had been spared the worst; Venezuela, Paraguay and Uruguay.  Venezuela still looks good but no one has any real idea what is going on in that country, and certainly no one trusts any claims by its government.  In Paraguay and Uruguay things have deteriorated recently.  Paraguay's death rate recently shot up to 782 but it is Uruguay that is most concerning.  A well-governed country of 3.5 million with a modern infrastructure and wedged between Argentina and Brazil, until mid-December Uruguay had a mortality rate of less than 50 and been considered a model for how a country could contain covid.  Today its rate stands at 620 and is rising quickly with more than 90% of the country's covid deaths occurring since the beginning of March.  It's a lesson for all of us.  There is so much we still do not understand about this disease and its spread.

The Toll

Reported below are all countries with population of more than one million which have reported death rates in excess of 1,000 per million.  

Only three countries (Latvia, Ecuador, and Lebanon) passed the 1,000 mark in the past month, but many of those already in the group saw double digit increases in deaths over the past 30 days.

As of last month, only one country (Czech Republic) had a death rate in excess of 2,000 or 0.2% of population.  As of today, there are eight countries, all in Europe, which have passed that grim milestone, and it is likely that at least one will exceed 0.3% by next month.

The list below shows the death rate per million, along with the % increase since last month.  New countries are in BOLD.

Europe

Hungary (2697/41%), Czech Republic (2684/16%), Bosnia & Herzogovinia (2501/38%), Bulgaria (2261/28%), North Macedonia (2206/31%), Slovakia (2079/25%), Belgium (2052/5%), Slovenia (2014/5%)

Italy (1960/12%), UK (1868/1%), Poland (1697/30%), Portugal (1667/1%), Spain (1657/6%), Croatia (1650/17%), France (1562/10%), Lithuania (1419/10%), Romania (1408/21%), Moldova (1408/24%), Sweden (1368/5%), Switzerland (1212/3%), Latvia (1117), Austria (1108/10%)

Unofficially, Russia has exceeded 1,500.

North America 

USA (1757/5%), Mexico (1643/8%), Panama (1419/2%)

South America

Brazil (1795/30%), Peru (1758/16%), Colombia (1365/13%), Argentina (1331/11%), Chile (1326/15%), Bolivia (1079/5%), Ecuador (1006)

Africa

None

Unofficially, South Africa is probably above 1,500

Asia

Armenia (1337/18%), Lebanon (1038)

Seven countries are between 1,000 and 900; Georgia (999), Netherlands (990), Ireland (977), Germany (973), Ukraine (948), Greece (943), South Africa (901)

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The dismissal and censoring of dissenting viewpoints by the media continues.

One of the techniques used in dismissing claims is the media to mischaracterize them.  Last year, when Senator Tom Cotton and this year when former CDC Director Redfield raised issues about the origin of Covid-19 it was dismissed as a crazy theory that China had deliberately developed and released the virus.  That is not what Cotton and Redfield claimed - they posited an accidental release from the Wuhan biological testing lab which is a very plausible hypothesis.  In fact, at this point I believe it the most likely hypothesis, though we will never know as the Chinese government has no interest in a legitimate investigation and, I suspect, any of the researchers who might know the answer are now permanently unavailable.

YouTube removed a discussion between Governor DeSantis and several experts on the value of masking for children because it contradicts what the CDC says.  However, what DeSantis and those experts said was also consistent with what European scientists and policy makers concluded about masking for children.  

I simply do not understand the strategy behind the administration's pronouncements on masking.  Why, if you are trying to get people vaccinated do you insist on telling them that doing so will not allow themselves to change their behavior?

I'm so old I began masking back when Fauci and the CDC told us we were fools to do so.  I'd read the literature and decided masks had some marginal protective value if, (1) they were not plain cloth, (2) you put them on and off very carefully, and (3) didn't shove them in your pocket when you took the mask off.  But it was clearly not the cure-all some people seem to think it is.  

And I did not mask outdoors, unless I was going to be in a very crowded situation which I tried to avoid in any case.  Again, I do not understand why someone walking outside by themselves would wear a mask.  We knew by late spring last year that outdoor exposure risk was tiny.  More recently I've read of cases in New Mexico and Oregon where high school runners collapsed because they were required to wear masks while running!!  That is insane.

The truth is I don't think even a lot of the masking crowd truly believed this about mask wearing outdoors.  Last May, when public health officials told us that if you were protesting or rioting in support of the right causes a magic Covid immunity shield would descend from the outstretched arms of the newly risen George Floyd, all credibility was lost on this issue.

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Early in 2020 the White House started weekly Covid calls with all Governors in which medical, logistical and health experts participated.  During the Trump Administration 40 such calls were held, with 39 chaired by VP Pence and President Trump participating in eight.  The weekly calls have continued in the Biden Administration.  However, President Biden has not participated in any, and VP Harris showed up at one, staying for five minutes.  Governor Andrew Cuomo has taken over chairing the calls to the consternation of some governors.