Gotta Serve Somebody

You're gonna have to serve somebody

It may be the Devil, it may be the Lord

But you're gonna have to serve somebody

Yes, indeed.  Everyone, whether they think they are or not.

Bob Dylan from the late 1970s. 

The Danger Of Specialization

 From Bryan Ward-Perkins, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization (2006), an intriguing book I read several years ago.  I was reminded of this passage when it was recently quoted in Laudator Temporis Acti, the blog which bestowed on THC its motto: The Value of Useless Knowledge.

Ward-Perkins wrote in response to a trend in classical and medieval history over the past few decades that looks at the decline and fall of the Roman Empire in the West as a mere transition period, not particularly disruptive, rather than as a catastrophic event from which it took centuries to recover which had been the consensus opinion of historians prior to the late 20th century.  Ward-Perkins' view was that the fall of the empire brought about a demonstrable decline in living standards for large parts of the population.  In this excerpt he explains why the dissolution of an interdependent, far-ranging geographically economy had such an impact.  With possible lessons for our time.

 

I have argued that the end of the ancient economy, and the timing of its collapse, were closely linked to the demise of the Roman empire. However, to understand the full and unexpected scale of the decline—turning sophisticated regions into underdeveloped backwaters—we need to appreciate that economic sophistication has a negative side. If the ancient economy had consisted of a series of simple and essentially autonomous local units, with little specialization of labour within them and very little exchange between them, then parts of it would certainly have survived the troubles of post-Roman times—dented perhaps, but in an essentially recognizable form. However, because the ancient economy was in fact a complicated and interlocked system, its very sophistication rendered it fragile and less adaptable to change.

For bulk, high-quality production to flourish in the way that it did in Roman times, a very large number of people had to be involved, in more-or-less specialized capacities. First, there had to be the skilled manufacturers, able to make goods to a high standard, and in a sufficient quantity to ensure a low unit-cost. Secondly, a sophisticated network of transport and commerce had to exist, in order to distribute these goods efficiently and widely. Finally, a large (and therefore generally scattered) market of consumers was essential, with cash to spend and an inclination to spend it. Furthermore, all this complexity depended on the labour of the hundreds of other people who oiled the wheels of manufacture and com- merce by maintaining an infrastructure of coins, roads, boats, wagons, wayside hostelries, and so on.

Economic complexity made mass-produced goods available, but it also made people dependent on specialists or semi-specialists—sometimes working hundreds of miles away—for many of their material needs. This worked very well in stable times, but it rendered consumers extremely vulnerable if for any reason the networks of production and distribution were disrupted, or if they themselves could no longer afford to purchase from a specialist. If specialized production failed, it was not possible to fall back immediately on effective self-help.

Comparison with the contemporary western world is obvious and important. Admittedly, the ancient economy was nowhere near as intricate as that of the developed world in the twenty-first century. We sit in tiny productive pigeon-holes, making our minute and highly specialized contributions to the global economy (in my case, some teaching, and a bit of writing about the end of the Roman world), and we are wholly dependent for our needs on thousands, indeed hundreds of thousands, of other people spread around the globe, each doing their own little thing. We would be quite incapable of meeting our needs locally, even in an emergency. The ancient world had not come as far down the road of specialization and helplessness as we have, but it had come some way.

The enormity of the economic disintegration that occurred at the end of the empire was almost certainly a direct result of this specialization. The post-Roman world reverted to levels of economic simplicity, lower even than those of immediately pre-Roman times, with little movement of goods, poor housing, and only the most basic manufactured items. The sophistication of the Roman period, by spreading high-quality goods widely in society, had destroyed the local skills and local networks that, in pre-Roman times, had provided lower-level economic complexity. It took centuries for people in the former empire to reacquire the skills and the regional networks that would take them back to these pre-Roman levels of sophistication. Ironically, viewed from the perspective of fifth-century Britain and of most of the sixth- and seventh-century Mediterranean, the Roman experience had been highly damaging.

COVID + 10

Our monthly report on covid (click on the coronavirus tag at the bottom to read prior reports).  Unfortunately, the situation is deteriorating globally.  We are in a race to see how quickly we can vaccinate while hoping that none of the new covid variants prove vaccine resistance.

My prior three monthly summaries reported on countries above a benchmark of 400 deaths per million of population but for this report I've increased it to 800 deaths per million because of the rapidly growing toll of the virus and because it provides some context for the United States.  As mentioned previously there is great variation in how countries count covid deaths, some related to understandable differences in how a covid death is defined, others impacted by the comprehensiveness of country reporting systems, and some due to more deliberate government interventions.  I consider any country above 800 as in the same general ballpark as the U.S.  As before, countries with populations below one million are excluded from this summary.

To illustrate how much things have changes since my first monthly report on October 22, on that date there were 19 countries with death rates of 400 per million or above; today there are 49.  On October 22, 2 countries surpassed 800; today it is 31; and on October 2, only one country exceeded 1,000 (or 0.1% of its population) while today 21 are in that category.

Europe

Belgium (1775), Slovenia (1592), Czech Republic (1411), UK (1410), Italy (1402), Bosnia & Herzogovinia (1393), North Macedonia (1329), Bulgaria (1272), Hungary (1224), Spain (1186), Croatia (1166), France (1112), Sweden (1086), Switzerland (1040), Portugal (974), Lithuania (959), Poland (923), Romania (920), Moldova (827), Austria (811).

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: Netherlands, Slovakia, Germany, Ireland

North America 

USA (1277), Panama (1144), Mexico (1127)

South America

Peru (1182), Argentina (1025), Brazil (1009), Colombia (988), Chile (926), Bolivia (835), Ecuador (818)

Africa

None

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: South Africa

Asia

Armenia (1021)

Exceeding 800 within next 30 days: Georgia, Iran

The above is based on officially reported figures.  However, we've recently had examples of potential major discrepancies.  For instance, Russia's mortality rate is 469 based on official data.  However, earlier this month two Russian government officials publicly stated the death toll is much higher.  The two officials used different definitions for covid deaths, in one case stating the current death toll was an underestimate by 60,000, while the other stated the proper death toll should be 130,000 higher.  The lower estimate would result in a mortality rate around 900 while the higher would give a rate of about 1350.

Another recent study of excess mortality in Indonesia finds it running 71% higher than average since March but the official covid death count is only 27,453 with a rate of 100.  If a significant amount of the excess mortality is due to covid the rate would be much higher.

Something else I've noted in the data that does not involve misreporting but may be significant.  Japan had been relatively unscathed by covid despite doing limited testing and very little on closing of businesses.  However, since late November cases and deaths have been steadily rising.  In both instances the numbers are still relatively small by USA or Europe standards but very high compared to earlier in 2020.  We are also hearing that China is quarantining large populations again.  Something may be up.

A country I continue to find puzzling is Turkey which ranks 9th in the world in confirmed cases with 2.4 million but with a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of only 1.0%, the lowest of any country among those in the   top twenty.  I would like to understand how Turkey defines and reports covid deaths and whether its covid treatment protocols differ in any respect from other countries at the top of the case list.

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I've complained before about the politicization of covid, not just between Left and Right in the USA but even between countries, with people across the political spectrum grabbing onto whatever data or theory they can use that best conforms with their political outlook.  One of the most striking to me has been the lionization of Governor Cuomo of New York and the unceasing attacks on Governor DeSantis of Florida.  We are now ten months into this and New York's death rate is still almost double that of Florida and while New York remains mostly shut down, Florida has imposed many fewer restrictions.

Despite having the second highest mortality rate of any state, Governor Cuomo has received an Emmy Award for his press conferences, did a victory tour of late night talk shows, where he was received with adoration, to promote his book on how he beat covid in New York, and most recently received the Edward M Kennedy Award for Inspired Leadership for his covid response.  I find the whole thing ghoulish.

What follows is an extended excerpt from a Patreon newsletter I subscribe to which discusses the contrast. The author is a conservative Never Trumper.

The media’s reporting on Covid-19 was awful all of last year, as was regularly noted in this newsletter. One of the most actively dishonest narratives was how the press covered the pandemic in New York compared to Florida.

There are two distinctive metrics for analyzing the quality of a state’s Covid-19 response: 1) The extent to which a state prevents virus spread/harm; 2) The ability of a state to balance actions associated with #1 with the inevitable economic and health ramifications. The national press made it clear early on that they placed insufficient value on #2 and often ignored the data related to #1 when it did not fit certain pre-developed narratives.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has received constant praise, despite having one of the worst records in the country in both categories. New York ranks second in the country in deaths per capita and no other state will catch them any time soon, as they’re currently in the midst of a growing outbreak of cases and deaths. Meanwhile, the state remained under strict and excessive lockdowns throughout 2020. In-person instruction in schools was shut down for most of the year, countless businesses have been destroyed, and restaurants and bars have been consistently restricted. Cuomo has repeatedly lost in court for infringing on religious rights with restrictions, and a record number of people have fled the state (many to Florida). Now Cuomo is undermining efforts to get as many people the vaccine as possible by shelving the vaccine preparation in the state and focusing on punishingpeople for administering the vaccine out of order. All of that earned Cuomo an Emmy and a celebration book tour.

Meanwhile, the national press has spent every single month since March promoting the idea that Florida, and specifically DeSantis, were mishandling the virus and headed for disaster. Just look at some stories from CNN and NBC News, which were hardly unique among news outlets:

March CNN: The Florida governor just got called out over his handling of coronavirus

April CNN: DeSantis risked the lives of Floridians

May CNN: States continue to ease coronavirus restrictions ahead of expert recommendations

June CNN: Pressure mounts on DeSantis as coronavirus cases spike in Florida

July CNN: DeSantis' earlier bravado fuels Florida's pandemic crisis

August NBC News: Florida teachers battle Gov. DeSantis over return to classrooms

September NBC News: Fauci says it's 'very concerning' that Florida is re-opening bars and restaurants at full capacity

October CNN: Florida will be 'like a house on fire' in weeks with loose coronavirus restrictions, infectious disease expert says

November CNN: Since Gov. Ron DeSantis reopened Florida in late September, the number of reported Covid-19 cases per week in the state has tripled.

December CNN: “Putting 'politics in front of lives': DeSantis faces criticism over Florida's Covid-19 response”

After all that time, Florida is 19th in deaths per capita and didn’t rank in the top 25 states in cases or deaths per capita over the last week. Meanwhile, the state has been mostly open since late September. DeSantis was excoriated for it, but it turned out that beaches do not present a big risk for virus spread and it allowed socialization that was missing in many states. DeSantis also took a lot of heat for pushing for schools to reopen, but once again was proven correct in his decision. Schools have not been a substantial source of virus spread, and keeping them closed did a lot of damage to children in other states.

DeSantis also did something unique in specifically targeting the state’s older population to protect those in nursing homes while Cuomo and several other governors chose to send Covid-19 patients back to those facilities. In addition, Florida has often focused actions at the county level, thereby better balancing the need to keep businesses open with the need to protect against the virus. As a result, while Florida’s record on virus spread (#1) is average (although significantly better than that of NY), their record on balancing it with preventing the harms that result from restrictions (#2) is among the best in the country.

DeSantis has also recently expanded vaccine administration to 7 days a week for seniors and healthcare workers, set up drive-thru vaccination sites to expand access, and launched a pilot program aimed at providing vaccinations specifically to underserved communities. News outlets have spent the last week complaining about seniors waiting in line for vaccinations in Florida while completely ignoring the reality that those same seniors wouldn’t even be eligiblefor vaccinations right now under Cuomo’s rules. The press has kept their false narrative going despite the data since March, and has shown no signs of reconsidering. Part of that is clearly because of how popular DeSantis was pre-Covid and the threat he posed as a future presidential contender. DeSantis has made some mistakes, but it’s rather clear that the press owes him an apology and the narrative they promoted about his handling of Covid-19 compared to other governors is completely backwards.

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I've thought since early last year that a distinct possibility for the origin of Covid-19 was from sloppy handling practices at a bio lab in Wuhan, China that allowed the virus to escape into the public (there is a history of such mishaps at labs in China since the early 2000s).  The State Department recently issued the statement below:

Excerpts from State Department Statement on Origins of Covid-19, issued on January 15, 2021 

You can find the entire statement here.

"The U.S. government does not know exactly where, when, or how the COVID-19 virus—known as SARS-CoV-2—was transmitted initially to humans. We have not determined whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, China.

The virus could have emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals, spreading in a pattern consistent with a natural epidemic. Alternatively, a laboratory accident could resemble a natural outbreak if the initial exposure included only a few individuals and was compounded by asymptomatic infection. Scientists in China have researched animal-derived coronaviruses under conditions that increased the risk for accidental and potentially unwitting exposure.

1. Illnesses inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV):

• The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses. This raises questions about the credibility of WIV senior researcher Shi Zhengli’s public claim that there was “zero infection” among the WIV’s staff and students of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-related viruses.
• Accidental infections in labs have caused several previous virus outbreaks in China and elsewhere, including a 2004 SARS outbreak in Beijing that infected nine people, killing one.

2. Research at the WIV:

• Starting in at least 2016 – and with no indication of a stop prior to the COVID-19 outbreak – WIV researchers conducted experiments involving RaTG13, the bat coronavirus identified by the WIV in January 2020 as its closest sample to SARS-CoV-2 (96.2% similar). The WIV became a focal point for international coronavirus research after the 2003 SARS outbreak and has since studied animals including mice, bats, and pangolins.
• The WIV has a published record of conducting “gain-of-function” research to engineer chimeric viruses. But the WIV has not been transparent or consistent about its record of studying viruses most similar to the COVID-19 virus, including “RaTG13,” which it sampled from a cave in Yunnan Province in 2013 after several miners died of SARS-like illness.

Despite the WIV presenting itself as a civilian institution, the United States has determined that the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China’s military. The WIV has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017."

Aaron

 RIP, Henry Aaron.  A great ballplayer, a great man.  The past twelve months have seen the passing of so many of the ballplayers I grew up admiring.

(Painting by Graig Kreindler)

Vin Scully's call of Hank's 715th home run, passing Babe Ruth.  As usual, it is a perfect call by Vin.  Notice how he gives the moment a chance to breathe by saying nothing for 20 seconds and then strikes the right note about the significance of the event.  And let's not forget that 92 year old Vin has, within the past month, lost both his wife to Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS), and long time friend Tommy Lasorda.

The last nine months have seen the passing of ten Hall of Famers, Al Kaline, Joe Morgan, Whitey Ford, Lou Brock, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Aaron and Tommy Lasorda, along with Dick Allen.  All, with the exception of Lasorda, played in the 60s, and 9 of the 11 were National Leaguers reflecting the competitive inbalance between the leagues in that decade.

Deep River Blues

 I had the privilege of seeing Doc Watson play in Paris in 1978.  Doc, who lost his sight before turning two due to an infection, called Deep Gap, way up in the North Carolina mountains, his home from his birth in 1923 until his death in 2012.  A guitar master with a fine voice (and his deep and warm speaking voice just invited you in) here he is performing Deep River Blues in 1962.

 

While putting this together I came across another gem - a performance of Down In The Valley To Pray from the early 2000s.  Many originally heard the song in O Brother Where Art Thou? when it was called Down In The River To Pray and performed by Alison Kraus.  In this video, Doc is joined by Alison and Ricky Skaggs, while Earl Scruggs sits next to Doc.  We learn that Alison learned the song from Doc who, in turn, learned it from his grandmother who he remembers singing it as she churned butter on the porch.

And finally, here are rehearsals sessions from 2001 with Dolly Parton, preparing for Merlefest, the annual tribute to Doc's guitar playing son, with whom he toured for many year, who died in 1985 in an accident on the family farm.  The song is The Last Thing on My Mind, written by Tom Paxton, a 60s folk musician.  Listen in particular to the first three minutes.

A Nice Ending

Yesterday the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Drew Brees captained New Orleans Saints to advance in the NFL playoffs.  It was likely the last game for the 42-year old Brees who is expected to soon announce his retirement.

After the game, Brady and Brees (along with his wife and children) returned to the field to talk and then Tom threw a TD pass to one of the Brees children!  All in all, a nice quiet moment with two of the greatest quarterbacks to every play the game.  Next week the 43-year old Brady faces 37 year-old Aaron Rodgers who may have just had his best regular season.

As Tom Brady and Drew Brees hug and say goodbye after a long talk on the field, Brady throws a touchdown pass to Brees’ son. One walks off to play in the NFC championship, the other stays to play with his kids. pic.twitter.com/wdWDro9YD4

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 18, 2021