Big Papi's Big Day

Yesterday afternoon the Missus and I were at Fenway Park for the last regular season game of David Ortiz, the most popular player in the history of the franchise.  In the hour long farewell ceremony:

The Mayor of Boston named a street after Big Papi

Not to be outdone, the Governor of Massachusetts named a bridge after Big Papi

The President of the Dominican Republic (Danilo Medina) showed up to throw the first pitch to - - - Big Papi, who was born in the Dominican and became a U.S. Citizen in 2011  

Big Papi took a selfie with the President

Kevin Spacey recited Rudyard Kipling's If

Three National Anthems were played (Canada, Dominican Republic, U.S.)

Mary J Blige (Papi's favorite singer) sang The Star Spangled Banner, as well as One by U2.

The Red Sox and team owners donated $1 million to Big Papi's charity which funds life saving operations for kids in the Dominican and New England (563 so far)

Former teammates from the 2004, 2007 and 2013 champion teams walked out of the center field pavilion carrying the World Series trophies to join Big Papi

Manny Ramirez managed to remember to show up

(Manny & Papi hug, Pedro Martinez on left, Jason Varitek on right)
 
It was emotionally exhausting (video of his speech is here).  And there was a game afterwards.  Turned out to be a pretty good one.  Now, on to the playoffs.

All through the year, I feared Papi would tail off from his amazing start.  While it did to a minor degree, he never plunged into the lengthy slump many of us anticipated.  He led the American League in doubles, RBI, slugging, on base + slugging, intentional walks and extra base hits, along with finishing 6th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage and 8th in homers and walks.  It was his best season since 2007 and the best final season over the natural career arc of any major league ballplayer (Ted Williams had an incredible final season at age 42, but was only a part-time players, starting only 87 games with 390 plate appearances compared to 626 for Papi; another recent, and often forgotten, outstanding finale was for 39 year old Mike Mussina, who went 20-9 for the 2008 New York Yankees).  The only comparable final years were in careers cut short, Sandy Koufax's 1966 campaign, ended at age 30 by an arthritic elbow, and Shoeless Joe Jackson in 1920, terminated at age 32 by the Black Sox Scandal.

Recently watching a lengthy interview with Ortiz broadcast on NESN we learned several things:

He hated playing for the Minnesota Twins who, he complained, tried to make him into a singles hitter and didn't want him taking big swings.  The Twins apparently didn't think much of him, releasing Ortiz in December 2002 at the age of 27, an incredible mistake in retrospect.

He gives Pedro Martinez credit for getting him to Boston (and gave him special mention in his farewell speech yesterday).  When Pedro learned Ortiz was released he called the Red Sox front office urging them to sign him, which they did despite misgivings.

The two people he singled out for helping him become a better hitter were Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.  In his first season with the Red Sox, Tek persuaded him to switch to a heavier bat which he said would make Papi use his wrists more and body less and give him more power.  Ortiz said it made an immediate difference.

From Manny, he learned how to have a plan for each at bat.  Despite his well-known eccentricities (like letting uncashed $50,000 pay checks sit in his locker), Manny has always had the reputation as a very smart hitter.

His major adjustment as he got older was to stop looking for inside pitches and concentrate on the outer half of the plate, feeling he could always handle the inside pitch.  He was right.

Along those lines, one of the things that jumps out is his recovery from what looked like a terminal decline in 2008 through 2010, to finish with such a strong kick over his final six seasons.  It looks like a key factor was his approach to controlling the strike zone.  In most cases, a batter's strikeouts increase as they get older and can't get around on the fastball anymore.  During 2009 and 2010 Papi was striking out in almost 24% of his plate appearances (PA), and during the early part of 2010, in 33% of his PA.  He clearly made some type of adjustment, and in 2011 struck out in less than 14% of his PA, maintaining that pace right through this year.

Papi from The Players' Tribune:

Boston is not just my team. Boston is my city. I consider myself a Bostonian, and it’s the thing I’m most proud of in the world.

For some wonderful pictures from throughout the career of David Ortiz go here.

Grand Slam

It was Oct 13, 2013.  Things were looking grim for the Red Sox in their playoff series against the Detroit Tigers.  They'd lost 1-0 at Fenway the night before and tonight they were down 5-1 entering the bottom of the 8th.  If they lost, the Sox would be going to Detroit to play three games down 2-0 in a best of 7 series.

LDC and I had been in the Fenway bleachers the week before to see the Sox beat the Rays on their way to a 3-1 series win and I was watching the game that night and not feeling good about it. 

Detroit starter Max Scherzer was overpowering holding the Sox to two hits and one run while striking out 13 in seven innings but took himself out of the game at that point.

Jose Veras started the 8th for the Tigers, getting the first batter out on a grounder but Will Middlebrooks doubled to left.  Drew Smyly replaced Veras and walked Jacoby Ellsbury on a 3-2 count and was immediately replaced by Al Alburquerque who struck out Shane Victorino.  Two down!  But then Dustin Pedrioa singled, loading the bases.

Joaquin Benoit, the Tigers' closer, came in to face David Ortiz.  Big Papi had not had a good series so far going 0 for 6 with four strikeouts.  Scherzer had faced him three times that night, getting him to K twice while walking the slugger once.  Benoit's first pitch was a changeup which Ortiz hit on a line into the Red Sox bullpen giving us the immortal photo of Tiger center fielder Torii Hunter's legs after he plunged over the low wall in pursuit and behind him the upraised arms of a Boston policeman who was stationed in the bullpen.  The grand slam tied the game.  

  Big Papi's swing against Benoit.

 

The deflated Tigers went on to lose in the bottom of the 9th when the Sox pushed across the winning run.  Ortiz only went 1-15 in the next four games, one of his worst playoff performances, but he came through when it most counted and the Sox took 2 of 3 in Detroit and then won game 6 in Fenway, going on to beat the St Louis Cardinals in the World Series.  Big Papi hit .688 in the World Series and was on base 19 times in 24 plate appearances.  LDC and I were in the bleachers for the final game and experienced the Red Sox winning the World Series at Fenway for the first time since 1918.

I came across this interview with Torii Hunter in which he drops a few nuggets, most startingly that he and Ortiz had dinner the night before the game and Big Papi told him that Benoit was tipping his pitches so he knew what was coming. Hunter said Benoit was dismissive when he told him of Ortiz's claim, responding that he always got him out.  I checked and as of the playoff series, Big Papi was 6 for 22 off of Benoit, but had only 3 hits in his last 15 at bats, and he'd never had an extra base hit against Benoit.

Torii also talks about the longer term effects from hitting his head when falling into the bullpen. And, though not said directly, Hunter implies he did not like Scherzer's decision to take himself out of the game.  Torii Hunter had a distinguished career and was an outstanding outfielder and is in the Almost Good Enough, But Not Quite, To Get Into the Hall of Fame category.  

Early Season Fantasies

(David Ortiz homers off Dellin Betances, from Newsday)

With the first month of the baseball season in the books, one of the favorite pastimes of many baseball fans (including THC) is projecting out full season statistics based on performance in the first month.  The fun is it always yields some outlandish, but entertaining, results.  Small sample size you say?  Nonsense, we're just having fun!  And did we mention that "fans" is derived from "fanatic"?

This is THC's favorite projection based on first month performance.  It's Big Papi's last season and he's off to a great start.  Right now he projects to a full season of 34 HRs, 121 RBI, .321 BA and 1.071 OPS with a major league record 74 doubles, making it the best last season for a batsman. Yeah, we don't think that's where he'll end up but let's enjoy the moment.

And here's an even better story.  Every baseball fan knows the story of Babe Ruth hitting a home run for Johnny Sylvester during the 1926 World Series.  On Friday night, David Ortiz beat the Yankees with a home run off of Dellin Betances.  It turns out that just before the game, Big Papi made a video with Kevin Millar for Maverick Schutte, a five year old Wyoming boy with a congenital heart defect who has undergone thirty surgeries, promising to hit a homer!

Mlb.com reported on how it came about:

Before the game, Kevin Millar, who was in town for MLB Network, made his former teammate aware of Maverick, a baseball enthusiast who has a congenital heart defect.

Together, Ortiz and Millar produced a video prior to Friday night's game which was quickly sent to Maverick.

"Hopefully you're doing great. Stay positive," Ortiz told the boy. "Big Papi right here with my boy Kevin. Remember that. We love you."

Then, Ortiz in a completely unscripted way, closed it out in poignant fashion.
"Always stay positive. Keep the faith. You take care, buddy, and I'm going to hit a homer for you tonight," said Ortiz, as he pointed emphatically into the camera. "Remember that. For you."

After the homer, Maverick sent a video back to Ortiz and Big Papi reflected on the event:

"This is baseball. You are facing another pitcher and you don't know what he's going to throw. But what you're trying to do with that video, I was trying to do was make Maverick feel happy and have that connection with him. You throw that out there just to make sure he has a friend he can count on right here."

You can watch both videos and Papi's home run at mlb.com.

Game Of The Year

(Big Papi hugs Hanley Ramirez last night)

At least for Red Sox fans.

THC and the THC Son watched this unfold last night.  Red Sox down to the Yankees at Fenway 5-1 in the bottom of the 8th inning.  The Sox offense has been pitiful all night, with Tanaka pitching well for the Yanks. Then, Big Papi hits a 442 foot home run #537 into the centerfield bleachers, passing Mickey Mantle on the career list, and making it 5-2.

In the top of the 9th, Sox reliever Joe Kelly manages to load the bases and then retires the Yankees when he accidentally has his glove in the right position to catch a screaming line drive that looks like a sure single.

On to the bottom of the 9th.  Aaron Hill strikes out.  Chris Young is hit by a pitch and Joe Girardi brings the big gun, Dellin Betances, in to pitch.  Betances walks Pedroia and gets Xander Bogaerts to hit into a fielder's choice.  The Red Sox are down to their last out.  Big Papi strokes a single which plates Pedroia.  At that point, Ortiz has driven in all three Red Sox runs.

Mookie Betts then hits a single past a diving Didi Gregorius, driving in Bogaerts.  Hanley Ramirez, who's been on a tear for the past 20 games, steps to the plate and on a 3-1 count crushes one to the center field bleachers for a walk-off 7-5 Boston win!  Watch in the clip below as Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez flinches when Ramirez connects, something I've not seen before.

Watch the game highlights.

Get Well, Big Papi

A moment of reflection for Big Papi. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/pmf2pNjC7J

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) June 10, 2019

Shocking news from the Dominican Republic.  David Ortiz shot in the back.  Six hours of surgery and now in stable condition but reportedly part of his intestines and gall bladder removed.   The Red Sox have sent a plane to the DR to take Papi back to Boston where he will be treated at Massachusetts General Hospital.

“David Ortiz is probably the most beloved and one of the most important players in our history, leading us to multiple World Series championships, and an active member in the community," said Red Sox team president Sam Kennedy. "I would be hard-pressed to think of anyone more beloved than David. It’s a very difficult day for the organization.

“I love David Ortiz. We all love David Ortiz. So telling my kids last night what had happened was very difficult. It’s hard to express what David Ortiz means to the Boston Red Sox. When you love someone and they come in harm’s way, it’s jarring. But you have to put those emotions aside and focus on what’s necessary."

I’m at peace knowing you out of danger; you a strong man Compai, can’t wait to hear your voice. My thoughts and prayers are with you, see you soon.
Me siento tranquilo de saber que estás fuera de peligro, usted es fuerte Compai, ya quiero oírle la voz. Orando, nos vemos pronto pic.twitter.com/jdSnNsM7eI

— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) June 10, 2019

Big Papi Countdown

At the end of April, THC wrote of David Ortiz's projected stats for his final season.  It was fairly ridiculous - a record setting 74 doubles along with 34 HR, 121 RBI, a batting average of .321 and an OPS of 1.071 which would make it the best offensive final season in baseball history.  No way he could keep it up.

(David Ortiz hits 9th inning homer to tie game against Toronto Blue Jays, May 28, 2016)

Well, here we are near the end of May and the projected numbers look even more unbelieveable.  A record 76 doubles, 43 HR, 152 RBI, a batting average of .339 and an OPS of 1.140 along with being on pace for a record setting 122 extra base hits.

Big Papi leads the American League in doubles, RBI, On Base Percentage, Slugging, Total Bases, Extra Base Hits, OPS and OPS+ (the latter adjusted for park effects).

Going back to August 6 of last year, Ortiz has played in 90 games, hit 41 doubles, 29 HR, driven in 94 runs, and batted .341 with OBP of .428 and is Slugging .733.

He can't keep this up.  One of these months this prediction will be correct.

Big Papi Slows Down A Bit

Time for our monthly roundup on David Ortiz's final season and it looks like Big Papi is finally slowing down.  Having watched him a quite a bit this month, he's looking a little tired; even his outs weren't hit as hard.

July was his season low in batting (.273), on base percentage (.347) and slugging (.557).

That said, his full year projection is still staggering.

	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
May 1	74	34	121	321	1.071
June 1	69	48	153	335	1.145
July 1	64	37	131	336	1.103
August 1	55	34	134	320	1.053

Papi

Today David Ortiz is being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  Next to Willie Mays, my favorite ballplayer.  So many good memories.  An outstanding, clutch, and inspirational ballplayer.  Big Papi changed the nature of Red Sox baseball - from a team that always found a way to lose to a team you expected to win.  He is deservedly the most popular player in Red Sox history.

2004 will always remain the most memorable season of my life, and attending the victory parade an unforgettable moment.  Mrs THC and I were at his last regular season game and retirement ceremony on October 2, 2016 but the 2013 season is hard to top for memorable moments, from Papi's speech in Fenway after the Boston Marathon bombing, through a great season and then came the playoffs.  

Against the Tigers, the Sox and Papi were struggling, until he hit that grand slam to tie Game 2, and after that the Sox were unstoppable.  In the World Series, David hit an unbelievable .625 with an OPS of .760, and I was fortunate to be in the bleachers at Game 6 when the Sox won the series at home for the first time since 1918.  But my favorite moment of that Series was in Game 4, with the Sox down two games to one, in the fifth inning, Ortiz gathered his teammates around him for a pep talk, something very, very rare to see in a baseball game.  In the top of the 6th inning, Johnny Gomes hit a three run homer to put the Sox ahead and they won the game and the next two to become champions.

The Rookie

One of the best things about baseball is seeing something for the first time or something you haven't seen in a long time.  There's a big crop of young players with huge potential now in their first or second year in the majors.  Mike Trout of the Angels, who is 20 may be the best of all of them.

Bryce Harper is 19 and a starting player on the first place Washington Nationals (those are four words I did not expect to be writing when the season began) and is off to a great start - it's not just the statistics - it's his style and aggressiveness.  And it is very unusual for a teenager to play regularly at a big league level.
 
Grantland has a good article on Bryce by Rany Jazayerli . Go and read it. Here's a chart from the story showing the top five On Base + Slugging Percentages (OPS) for 19 year olds and where Harper fits.  It's pretty good company - two Hall of Famers (Ott/Mantle), one player who probably would have been in the Hall but for a terrible injury when he was 22 (Conigliaro) and one who might have made it if he hadn't blown out his knee (Cedeno).

Year	Age	Name	OPS
1928	19	Mel Ott	.921
2012	19	Bryce Harper	.908
1964	19	Tony Conigliaro	.883
1951	19	Mickey Mantle	.792
1970	19	Cesar Cedeno	.790

It's a small sample size for Harper but it sure is fun to think about what he might turn out to be.

On Sunday afternoon we were at Fenway to see the Red Sox play the Nationals.  Harper didn't start but entered the game in the 9th inning as a pinch hitter with the score tied at 3.  Harper walked.  The next batter (Bernadina) hit a liner into the right field corner.  I kept my eyes on Harper and watched him score from first.  It was like seeing a Roadrunner cartoon with little puffs of dust flying from his heels.  The kid really motored around the bases and scored the winning run.

And, as an extra added bonus it turns out he is a gifted societal observer:



For the Sox, other than watching Big Papi go 3 for 4 (homer, double, single) the only other highlights on Sunday were Jarrod Saltalamacchia striking out four times and Adrian Gonzalez hitting three weak grounders and a popup to the right side of the infield.  Looks like I may have to reactivate my plan from earlier in the season.

Comebacks

This weekend THC watched the Angels come from down 10-6 in the top of the 9th to score five runs to beat the Rangers (while watching the game on Spanish language TV - now that was exciting!) and then Max Scherzer striking out nine Mets in a row on the way to his no-hitter.  A nice way to end the season.

Before we plunge into the playoffs, here's a tip of the hat to two older players who had their troubles early in the season but finished strong.

39-year old David Ortiz looked awful early in the season and THC thought he might be washed up.  On June 9, a third of the way into the season, he was hitting .219 with a miserable OPS of .670.  Here's his entire line:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
52	196	43	12	0	6	21	23	35	219	297	372	670

 
Something kicked in at that point.  Over the next month (through July 10) his average didn't improve much but his home run stroke and patience at the plate came back:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
52	196	43	12	0	6	21	23	35	219	297	372	670
27	95	23	2	0	9	22	19	18	242	368	547	915

And from then until the end of the season he hit better than anyone in the league:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
52	196	43	12	0	6	21	23	35	219	297	372	670
27	95	23	2	0	9	22	19	18	242	368	547	915
67	232	78	23	0	22	65	35	42	329	415	705	1.120

Papi ended up with 37 homers (including his 500th), a OPS of .913 and finishing in the top ten in the AL in doubles, homers, RBIs, slugging and OPS.

This isn't the first time Big Papi has looked finished.  In 2009 he hit .238 and looked even worse.  His body type reminded me of Mo Vaughan and others who had flamed out in their early thirties.  Instead he's had a remarkable revival and is now a certain Hall of Famer.

And lets not forget the post-season record.  He's performed better across the board in October than during the regular season and even more so after getting warmed up in his first couple of series with the Twins and then with the Red Sox in 2003.  Here are his stats from 2004 on (which includes hitting .455 in three World Series):

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
61	219	70	16	2	15	48	52	46	320	450	617	1.067

Adrian Beltre, the third baseman for the Texas Rangers, is three years younger than Ortiz but has actually played more games since becoming a regular just after turning 19.  He's one of the best fielding third baseman in baseball history and a pretty decent hitter who was very inconsistent season to season early in his career but became a consistent .300 hitter as he reached his 30s.

He was injured early this season and started off slowly.  On July 7 here is what his batting line looked like:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
65	262	64	11	2	6	21	12	29	244	279	370	649

After that he caught fire helping the Rangers to come from 8 games down to win their division:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
65	262	64	11	2	6	21	12	29	244	279	370	649
78	305	99	21	2	12	62	29	35	325	380	525	905

Beltre ends the season with 2,767 hits and looks well positioned to get number 3,000 in June or July of 2017.

Of course at this age, how you end one season is no guarantee of performance the following year so let's just enjoy the moment.