Papi

Today David Ortiz is being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  Next to Willie Mays, my favorite ballplayer.  So many good memories.  An outstanding, clutch, and inspirational ballplayer.  Big Papi changed the nature of Red Sox baseball - from a team that always found a way to lose to a team you expected to win.  He is deservedly the most popular player in Red Sox history.

2004 will always remain the most memorable season of my life, and attending the victory parade an unforgettable moment.  Mrs THC and I were at his last regular season game and retirement ceremony on October 2, 2016 but the 2013 season is hard to top for memorable moments, from Papi's speech in Fenway after the Boston Marathon bombing, through a great season and then came the playoffs.  

Against the Tigers, the Sox and Papi were struggling, until he hit that grand slam to tie Game 2, and after that the Sox were unstoppable.  In the World Series, David hit an unbelievable .625 with an OPS of .760, and I was fortunate to be in the bleachers at Game 6 when the Sox won the series at home for the first time since 1918.  But my favorite moment of that Series was in Game 4, with the Sox down two games to one, in the fifth inning, Ortiz gathered his teammates around him for a pep talk, something very, very rare to see in a baseball game.  In the top of the 6th inning, Johnny Gomes hit a three run homer to put the Sox ahead and they won the game and the next two to become champions.

Bird Comes To Boston

“If I had to choose a player to take a final shot to win a game I’d choose (Michael) Jordan, but if I could pick one to shoot to save my life I would pick Bird.”

- Pat Riley (Coach, LA Lakers & NY Knicks, President & Coach, Miami Heat)

This is the 40th anniversary of Larry Bird's first game with the Boston Celtics.

I was there that night.  Can't remember how we got the tickets but they were on the floor a few rows behind one of the baskets.  Larry's arrival was much anticipated.  When they announced him, doves were released and flew around the Garden.  And, of course, he made some tough shots and startling passes that night.  The Celtics who had been pathetic the year before won 60 games during the 1979-80 season.  He was a joy to watch.

THC favorite athletes:

1.  Willie Mays
2.  Larry Bird
3.  Big Papi

Watch Larry:

Get Well, Big Papi

A moment of reflection for Big Papi. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/pmf2pNjC7J

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) June 10, 2019

Shocking news from the Dominican Republic.  David Ortiz shot in the back.  Six hours of surgery and now in stable condition but reportedly part of his intestines and gall bladder removed.   The Red Sox have sent a plane to the DR to take Papi back to Boston where he will be treated at Massachusetts General Hospital.

“David Ortiz is probably the most beloved and one of the most important players in our history, leading us to multiple World Series championships, and an active member in the community," said Red Sox team president Sam Kennedy. "I would be hard-pressed to think of anyone more beloved than David. It’s a very difficult day for the organization.

“I love David Ortiz. We all love David Ortiz. So telling my kids last night what had happened was very difficult. It’s hard to express what David Ortiz means to the Boston Red Sox. When you love someone and they come in harm’s way, it’s jarring. But you have to put those emotions aside and focus on what’s necessary."

I’m at peace knowing you out of danger; you a strong man Compai, can’t wait to hear your voice. My thoughts and prayers are with you, see you soon.
Me siento tranquilo de saber que estás fuera de peligro, usted es fuerte Compai, ya quiero oírle la voz. Orando, nos vemos pronto pic.twitter.com/jdSnNsM7eI

— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) June 10, 2019

Willie Turns 88

Willie Mays turns 88 today.  My favorite athlete (and my dad's - I always think of him when I remember Willie - dad raised me in the Church of Willie Mays), Willie is slowing down, losing his vision to glaucoma, but still likes hanging out in the manager's office before San Francisco Giants home games.  Happy birthday, Willie.  My posts on Willie.

Sorry, Big Papi but you're #2.

And Larry, you're #3.

Baseball In Black And White

When I was very young my Dad's favorite ballplayer was Willie Mays, who became my favorite player, and always will be (sorry Big Papi, but you're #2).  He also told me how important the integration of baseball was and that the National League played a superior brand of baseball to the American because it was much more aggressive in signing black ballplayers.  Dad's viewpoint is now generally accepted - the National League had a quality advantage in the 1950s and 60s, before the American League finally caught up.

I thought I'd try to quantify that advantage by looking at AL and NL ballplayers at the end of the 50s, 1959 to be specific, and in the mid-60s (1965).  The method was to identify all American black and dark-skinned Latins on AL and NL rosters in those years who accumulated at least 1.0 WAR.  While WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a flawed measure it is useful for making comparisons. "White" Latins, like Luis Aparicio, are not included because they had been generally accepted in baseball since at least the 1920s, in contrast to darker skinned Latins like Minnie Minoso.


It turns out differences in numbers and talent were significant in both years.

In 1959 there were 17 black players on National League rosters who accumulated at least 1.0 WAR.  Cumulative WAR was 69.7 or an average of 4.1  Eight were eventually inducted in the Hall of Fame (Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Roberto Clemente, Ernie Banks, Frank Robinson and Bob Gibson).

There were only 4 in the American League with a cumulative WAR of 11.2 (2.8 average) of which Minnie Minoso accounted for almost half (5.5).  The other three were Vic Power, Pumpsie Green, and Elston Howard.  None are in the Hall of Fame, though Minoso might have if he'd been able to start his major league career earlier.

By 1965 the National League had 35 black ballplayers meeting the criteria.  Cumulative WAR was 161.7 or an average of 4.6.  Twelve of the 35 have been inducted into the HOF - in addition to those from 1959 we can add Juan Marichal, Willie Stargell, Lou Brock, Billy Williams, and Joe Morgan (Orlando Cepeda was still active but injured, missing most of the season).  Other outstanding black ballplayers active in the NL that year included Dick Allen, Curt Flood, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, and Felipe Alou.

The number of black ballplayers had substantially increased in the AL to 23 and cumulative WAR to 64.5 but the talent gap remained; average WAR was 2.8, and only three had at least 5.0 WAR compared to 15 in the NL, and none have yet been admitted to the Hall of Fame, though Luis Tiant might eventually make it (I hope), and Tony Oliva might have but for the injuries that shortened his effective career.

In 1965 the talent gap between the leagues extended beyond race.  That year the AL had only nine players with at least 5.0 WAR while 26 NL players reached or surpassed that mark.

Dad was right.

The Last Goodbye

After the Red Sox were eliminated from the playoffs by the Cleveland Indians last night the players were in the clubhouse when Sox officials came to David Ortiz and told him most of the fans were still in the stadium, waiting to say goodbye to him.   He went back on the field.  Afterwards he said:

"I definitely always want to show love to the fans. I started thinking, I have my moment once I walk onto the mound, start looking around. And that moment, that hits you. You know you're never going to be able to be performing in the baseball world in front of all this. No disrespect to anyone, but I think we have the best fans worldwide. It's something that, it kind of hit me a little bit -- I'm not going to lie to you."

"I give everything I have, do something special while I play. And the fans respect that. The fans love that. The fans, they live through it. And that's all that matters to me."

"And everywhere I go, everywhere I bump into our fans, it doesn't matter if you bump into two of them or you bump into a thousand of them. They show the same love. And that's why I got better, that's why I got the opportunity to have the career that I had."

You can watch the moment here.

Big Papi's Big Day

Yesterday afternoon the Missus and I were at Fenway Park for the last regular season game of David Ortiz, the most popular player in the history of the franchise.  In the hour long farewell ceremony:

The Mayor of Boston named a street after Big Papi

Not to be outdone, the Governor of Massachusetts named a bridge after Big Papi

The President of the Dominican Republic (Danilo Medina) showed up to throw the first pitch to - - - Big Papi, who was born in the Dominican and became a U.S. Citizen in 2011  

Big Papi took a selfie with the President

Kevin Spacey recited Rudyard Kipling's If

Three National Anthems were played (Canada, Dominican Republic, U.S.)

Mary J Blige (Papi's favorite singer) sang The Star Spangled Banner, as well as One by U2.

The Red Sox and team owners donated $1 million to Big Papi's charity which funds life saving operations for kids in the Dominican and New England (563 so far)

Former teammates from the 2004, 2007 and 2013 champion teams walked out of the center field pavilion carrying the World Series trophies to join Big Papi

Manny Ramirez managed to remember to show up

(Manny & Papi hug, Pedro Martinez on left, Jason Varitek on right)
 
It was emotionally exhausting (video of his speech is here).  And there was a game afterwards.  Turned out to be a pretty good one.  Now, on to the playoffs.

All through the year, I feared Papi would tail off from his amazing start.  While it did to a minor degree, he never plunged into the lengthy slump many of us anticipated.  He led the American League in doubles, RBI, slugging, on base + slugging, intentional walks and extra base hits, along with finishing 6th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage and 8th in homers and walks.  It was his best season since 2007 and the best final season over the natural career arc of any major league ballplayer (Ted Williams had an incredible final season at age 42, but was only a part-time players, starting only 87 games with 390 plate appearances compared to 626 for Papi; another recent, and often forgotten, outstanding finale was for 39 year old Mike Mussina, who went 20-9 for the 2008 New York Yankees).  The only comparable final years were in careers cut short, Sandy Koufax's 1966 campaign, ended at age 30 by an arthritic elbow, and Shoeless Joe Jackson in 1920, terminated at age 32 by the Black Sox Scandal.

Recently watching a lengthy interview with Ortiz broadcast on NESN we learned several things:

He hated playing for the Minnesota Twins who, he complained, tried to make him into a singles hitter and didn't want him taking big swings.  The Twins apparently didn't think much of him, releasing Ortiz in December 2002 at the age of 27, an incredible mistake in retrospect.

He gives Pedro Martinez credit for getting him to Boston (and gave him special mention in his farewell speech yesterday).  When Pedro learned Ortiz was released he called the Red Sox front office urging them to sign him, which they did despite misgivings.

The two people he singled out for helping him become a better hitter were Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.  In his first season with the Red Sox, Tek persuaded him to switch to a heavier bat which he said would make Papi use his wrists more and body less and give him more power.  Ortiz said it made an immediate difference.

From Manny, he learned how to have a plan for each at bat.  Despite his well-known eccentricities (like letting uncashed $50,000 pay checks sit in his locker), Manny has always had the reputation as a very smart hitter.

His major adjustment as he got older was to stop looking for inside pitches and concentrate on the outer half of the plate, feeling he could always handle the inside pitch.  He was right.

Along those lines, one of the things that jumps out is his recovery from what looked like a terminal decline in 2008 through 2010, to finish with such a strong kick over his final six seasons.  It looks like a key factor was his approach to controlling the strike zone.  In most cases, a batter's strikeouts increase as they get older and can't get around on the fastball anymore.  During 2009 and 2010 Papi was striking out in almost 24% of his plate appearances (PA), and during the early part of 2010, in 33% of his PA.  He clearly made some type of adjustment, and in 2011 struck out in less than 14% of his PA, maintaining that pace right through this year.

Papi from The Players' Tribune:

Boston is not just my team. Boston is my city. I consider myself a Bostonian, and it’s the thing I’m most proud of in the world.

For some wonderful pictures from throughout the career of David Ortiz go here.

Game Of The Year

(Big Papi hugs Hanley Ramirez last night)

At least for Red Sox fans.

THC and the THC Son watched this unfold last night.  Red Sox down to the Yankees at Fenway 5-1 in the bottom of the 8th inning.  The Sox offense has been pitiful all night, with Tanaka pitching well for the Yanks. Then, Big Papi hits a 442 foot home run #537 into the centerfield bleachers, passing Mickey Mantle on the career list, and making it 5-2.

In the top of the 9th, Sox reliever Joe Kelly manages to load the bases and then retires the Yankees when he accidentally has his glove in the right position to catch a screaming line drive that looks like a sure single.

On to the bottom of the 9th.  Aaron Hill strikes out.  Chris Young is hit by a pitch and Joe Girardi brings the big gun, Dellin Betances, in to pitch.  Betances walks Pedroia and gets Xander Bogaerts to hit into a fielder's choice.  The Red Sox are down to their last out.  Big Papi strokes a single which plates Pedroia.  At that point, Ortiz has driven in all three Red Sox runs.

Mookie Betts then hits a single past a diving Didi Gregorius, driving in Bogaerts.  Hanley Ramirez, who's been on a tear for the past 20 games, steps to the plate and on a 3-1 count crushes one to the center field bleachers for a walk-off 7-5 Boston win!  Watch in the clip below as Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez flinches when Ramirez connects, something I've not seen before.

Watch the game highlights.

Big Papi Fun Stat Of Day

With the first inning blast in last night's win against the Tigers, David Ortiz has 107 Extra Base Hits (58 2B, 1 3B, 48 HR) in the last 162 games he's started.   The only players to have more than 107 XBH hits in a season are Babe Ruth, with 119 in 1921 and Lou Gehrig, with 117 in 1927, both in 154-game seasons.

With this remarkable end of career performance, he's moved from 26th to 12th in career XBH and has a chance to finish 8th.

With the doubles, he's gone from 27th to 11th on the all-time list.

Driving in 153 runs moves him from 43rd to 22nd on the career list.

Big Papi Slows Down A Bit

Time for our monthly roundup on David Ortiz's final season and it looks like Big Papi is finally slowing down.  Having watched him a quite a bit this month, he's looking a little tired; even his outs weren't hit as hard.

July was his season low in batting (.273), on base percentage (.347) and slugging (.557).

That said, his full year projection is still staggering.

	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
May 1	74	34	121	321	1.071
June 1	69	48	153	335	1.145
July 1	64	37	131	336	1.103
August 1	55	34	134	320	1.053

Big Papi Watch

Time for our monthly update on the last season of David Ortiz.  His full season projection has come down a bit from the end of May, but is still impressive: 64 doubles, 2 triples, 37 home runs, 131 RBI, a .336 batting average and an OPS of 1.103.  It's still projects as the best final season for any batsman.

Here are the projections so far as of the first day of each month:

	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
May 1	74	34	121	321	1.071
June 1	69	48	153	335	1.145
July 1	64	37	131	336	1.103

Boom Boom Red Sox

In THC's excitement over David Ortiz's full season projection, he just took a look at the entire Red Sox lineup and found that with 1/3 of the season complete as of June 2, six Sox regulars have outstanding projections for the entire season; Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw and, of course, Big Papi.  Their individual projections are below, but the average full year projected stats are startling: 48 doubles, 6 triples, 29 home runs, 113 RBI, .318 average, .381 on base, .562 slugging and .943 OPS.

The Sox are scoring six runs a game and on pace to shatter the major league record for doubles in a season, held by the 2008 Texas Rangers (376) by hitting a projected 411 two-baggers.

	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
BETTS	33	12	42	129	287	336	544	880
BOGAERTS	54	0	18	99	348	397	507	904
BRADLEY	39	12	27	111	331	409	601	1010
ORTIZ	69	3	48	153	335	415	730	1145
PEDROIA	42	3	21	78	318	376	488	864
SHAW	54	6	21	105	289	353	500	853

Early Season Fantasies

(David Ortiz homers off Dellin Betances, from Newsday)

With the first month of the baseball season in the books, one of the favorite pastimes of many baseball fans (including THC) is projecting out full season statistics based on performance in the first month.  The fun is it always yields some outlandish, but entertaining, results.  Small sample size you say?  Nonsense, we're just having fun!  And did we mention that "fans" is derived from "fanatic"?

This is THC's favorite projection based on first month performance.  It's Big Papi's last season and he's off to a great start.  Right now he projects to a full season of 34 HRs, 121 RBI, .321 BA and 1.071 OPS with a major league record 74 doubles, making it the best last season for a batsman. Yeah, we don't think that's where he'll end up but let's enjoy the moment.

And here's an even better story.  Every baseball fan knows the story of Babe Ruth hitting a home run for Johnny Sylvester during the 1926 World Series.  On Friday night, David Ortiz beat the Yankees with a home run off of Dellin Betances.  It turns out that just before the game, Big Papi made a video with Kevin Millar for Maverick Schutte, a five year old Wyoming boy with a congenital heart defect who has undergone thirty surgeries, promising to hit a homer!

Mlb.com reported on how it came about:

Before the game, Kevin Millar, who was in town for MLB Network, made his former teammate aware of Maverick, a baseball enthusiast who has a congenital heart defect.

Together, Ortiz and Millar produced a video prior to Friday night's game which was quickly sent to Maverick.

"Hopefully you're doing great. Stay positive," Ortiz told the boy. "Big Papi right here with my boy Kevin. Remember that. We love you."

Then, Ortiz in a completely unscripted way, closed it out in poignant fashion.
"Always stay positive. Keep the faith. You take care, buddy, and I'm going to hit a homer for you tonight," said Ortiz, as he pointed emphatically into the camera. "Remember that. For you."

After the homer, Maverick sent a video back to Ortiz and Big Papi reflected on the event:

"This is baseball. You are facing another pitcher and you don't know what he's going to throw. But what you're trying to do with that video, I was trying to do was make Maverick feel happy and have that connection with him. You throw that out there just to make sure he has a friend he can count on right here."

You can watch both videos and Papi's home run at mlb.com.