Rep. % Of Vote
|
Voter Turnout
|
R Vote (millions)
|
D Vote (millions)
|
|
Non-Hispanic White
|
60.2
|
64.1
|
55.5
|
36.7
|
African-American
|
6.1
|
66.2
|
1.1
|
16.4
|
Hispanic
|
27.6
|
48.0
|
4.2
|
11.0
|
Asian & Other
|
31.6
|
49.3
|
2.4
|
5.1
|
Popular Vote
|
63.1
|
69.1
|
||
%
|
47.7
|
52.3
|
||
Electoral College
|
206
|
332
|
When you play with the calculator tool you find that if AA turnout reverts to its historic norms and a GOP candidate can get 10% of the AA vote, they win the election if they also get 62% (instead of 60.2%) of the White vote and turnout edges up from 64.1% to 65% even if the Hispanic and Asian vote does not change.
If a GOP candidate could ever get 30% of the AA vote (similar to that of Hispanics and Asians) they would win the election even if White, Hispanic and Asian percentages remain the same. That’s why it’s predictable that the more the GOP attempts to court AA voters the more accusations of racism they will face from the D’s and their media allies.
The calculator also reveals some other surprising things. Because of the concentration of Hispanics in a small group of states it takes a lot of positive or negative changes for the GOP to make electoral college inroads based on that vote. In 2012, Romney received 27.6% of that vote. In 2016 a Republican candidate would have to drop down to 8% before another state switches to the D column and would have to capture 48% of that vote to swing one additional state to the GOP.
Though we think of ourselves as a 50/50 nation politically a look at the state specific data reveals a different picture. More and more of the states are falling firmly into the camp of one of the two parties. In 2012 only three states had a margin of less than 5% in the Presidential voting - Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Interesting...we'll see what happens. dm
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