On April 4 I wrote about the latest iteration of the Iran War in Further on Mastering The Tides Of The World.
I refer to it as the latest iteration because Iran declared war on the
United States in 1979 and that declaration remains in effect.
We are at war once again, this time with Iran. Before it started I did
not know what the right course of action was. Now that it has commenced
I think it essential we achieve victory along the lines outlined by
Secretary of State Rubio. This is a circumstance where, having started
the task, failure to achieve these outcomes will have serious long-term
negative consequences for the United States. I am aware of the sunk
cost fallacy but, in this case, we need to continue. I'm also painfully
aware of the potential for unforeseen consequences, a theme that has prompted a number of THC posts.
We now have a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran. In 2015 I wrote several posts
on the Iran Nuclear Deal, which, as a reminder, was a "political
commitment", not a treaty, Executive Agreement, signed document, or
legally binding, so thought I'd take a look at the MOU, which is also
just a political commitment (though in this case signed by the parties).
Beyond
that, I am not sure how to characterize the document. Partly because
it reads more like a 60-day ceasefire agreement pending a final deal and
partly because Donald Trump is one of the parties. Point 3 of the 14
Point agreement reads:
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to
negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable
with mutual consent.
In April, after mentioning
my uncertainty about whether to initiate another phase of the Iran
conflict, I stated the need to achieve victory along the line mentioned
by Marco Rubio, including elimination of the nuclear and ballistic
missile threats. I did not reference President Trump because I could
not find a coherent set of demands by the President, other than
blustering and often contradictory outbursts. Nor did the President
ever set forth for the American people a clear explanation of why now
and what his goals were, a necessity if you are entering a prolonged
conflict.
Moreover, we know from the past decade that Trump has a
short attention span, is often fuzzy in his language, improvises as he
goes along, is subject to bouts of pettiness, and corrupt, making it
impossible to predict where he will end up on any issue or, indeed, if
there is any final ending.
Trump has now said many things about
Iran and given different and conflicting messages. He did the same
regarding tariffs, where his justifications changed on almost a daily
basis. It's why I always wait a while to comment on anything involving Trump. Reacting to anything he says on Monday is useless because he often completely changes his tune on Tuesday and then switches again on Wednesday.
He also seems to regard every negotiation as a form of
commercial real estate deal. When it comes to foreign policy that can
sometimes works (see Venezuela and, perhaps, Cuba(1)) where
ideology does not play a significant role. But it does with the Iranian
regime which has consistently, since it came to power in 1979, acted in
accordance with its ideology, even at great cost to the welfare of its
people. Trump seems to think the enticement of dollars and business
will lead it to change its ideology. I believe he is mistaken, just as
FDR was when it came to the Soviet Union (see Personal Handling).
For all of those reasons, I had reservations, because with Trump you never know where you stand.
Let's start by looking at the situation pre and post this latest round:
1.
The Straits of Hormuz were open to transit for all vessels. However,
Point 5 of the MOU concedes de facto veto power to Iran:
Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make
arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial
vessels with no charge for 60 days, only from the Persian Gulf to the
Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will
immediately start, and considering the need for removing the tactical
and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran
will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will
conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future
administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in
discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the
applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states
of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. The Iran regime was subject to severe sanctions. Under the MOU those will be lifted.
The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of
sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United
Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S.
sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule.
3.
The Iran regime was under severe financial pressure as its
infrastructure and financial stability crumbled. Under the MOU, the
U.S. has pledged up to $300 billion in "other people's money" for
Iranian reconstruction. Given the U.S. was focused on military, not
civilian targets including energy infrastruture, what are these
reconstruction funds to be used for? As I pointed out in the 2015 deal,
money is fungible and can be used for anything, including continuing to
fund Iran's terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to
develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion
(£225 billion) for the reconstruction and economic development of the
Islamic Republic of Iran.
4. Iran's ballistic
missile capabilities were unrestricted and proved to be considerable in
this latest round. They remain unrestricted.
5. Iran had pledged
not to develop nuclear weapons. It reiterates that pledge in the MOU,
adding that it will not "procure" such weapons. No one believed this in
2015 and no one believes this now.
Under the MOU, the pre-attack
status quo has not been preserved. Iran is better off now than it was.
I would not characterize that as a U.S. victory.
In their public
statements, President Trump and VP Vance are stressing the "moderation"
of Iran's new leaders. We've been down this road before as Presidents
Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama (2) all fell for the moderation line,
while Bush II passively refused to retaliate when Iranian IED's killed
hundreds of U.S. soldiers during the Iraq War. I think they will be
disappointed.
I think Trump lost interest in the whole subject
when Iran did not collapse in the first couple of weeks and has moved on
to other things that have caught his attention like his self-generated
quarrel with Italy's Meloni over whether she asked for a photo with
him. A puzzled and furious Meloni, who has generally been supportive of
Trump over the years, responded:
"Donald
Trump's statements are completely fabricated. I am frankly stunned. I
don't know why the president of the United States behaves
like this toward his own allies. After all, it is not the first time."
"I can only say it's a shame he doesn't show the same resolve
toward with the enemies of the West and toward the enemies of the United
States — toward leaders with whom he, on the other hand, is much more
accommodating. But there is one thing he should remember: Italy and I do
not beg."
While the MOU is only a cease fire
I don't think Trump will have the appetite to resume force in the event
of a failure to reach a final deal. Unless he gets ticked off by
something or someone. Who knows? He certainly doesn't.
As a
practical matter there are big difficulties ahead. Gulf State sources,
with the exception of Qatar, friends of the Iranians, Hamas, and the
Trump family(3), are not happy with the MOU provision looking for
them to fund Iran's rebuilding. On the other hand, the U.S. proved
such a feckless ally they may be forced to get closer to Iran for
protection.
Point 14 states:
The final deal will be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
However,
France's Foreign Minister yesterday said it would not approve lifting
current UN sanctions unless the final agreement addressed Iran's use of
terrorist proxies and its ballistic missile program, neither of which
are covered in the MOU.(4)
Finally, Point 1 addresses Lebanon, a country that neither the U.S. nor Iran are directly involved in:
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their
allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate
and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,
including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war
or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the
threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial
integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the
permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and
other provisions of this paragraph.
This is
intended to address Hezbollah's recurrent attacks on Israel and the
Israeli response. However, the omission of Israel, as in language that
should read "including in Lebanon and Israel" is striking, since it is
Hezbollah's attacks that triggered the Israeli response. The provision
also effectively leaves the initiative with Iran, which controls
Hezbollah. Indeed, Hezbollah has continued to attack Israeli forces,
killing four IDF soldiers and when Israel responded, Iran announced it
was closing once again the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranians want to see
how Trump responds. Depending on the President's mood at any particular
moment he may lash out at the Israelis or the Iranians. Who knows?
And that is the problem.
-----------------------------------------
(1)
Cuba remains nominally communist, but it's as ideologically dead as the
Soviet Union in its final years. The country is now being run by a
criminal gang.
(2) President Obama may not have thought
the Iran regime was moderating. He just didn't care. His foreign
policy aide Ben Rhodes thought, and still thinks, the mullahs, along
with Hezbollah and Hamas, are the good guys.
(3) The
problem of Qatar, along with Russia and China, is bigger than just the
Trump family. The degree of influence the three enemies of America have
attained with academic institutions, media, think tanks, politicians,
influencers, and podcasters is staggering.
(4) Of course,
France and our other European allies refused to help the U.S. keep the
Hormuz Straits open, compounding our problems.